Greece – Annual pace of GDP contractio
The following is a summary and at the end there is a PDF file were viewers can read the report.
This note presents a preliminary estimate of Greek GDP in the first quarter of this year, based on a range of monthly data released up to March 15, 2014. Our Nowcasting model produces high frequency, real-time estimates of Greece’s gross domestic product by applying an econometric methodology that can properly handle data reporting lags, revisions and other important aspects characterizing the daily flow of macroeconomic information. Our updated model estimates point to a further slowdown in the pace of annual GDP contraction in the first quarter of 2014 to around -0.8%, from -2.3%YoY in Q4 2013.
This should not come as a major surprise, as the flow of macroeconomic data released so far this year have been broadly positive, supporting expectations for an ongoing stabilization in domestic economy activity. As we explain in the present document, the flow of macro data pertaining to the first quarter of the current year will continue in the following weeks and months and thus, our Nowcasting model estimate for Q1 should be considered as strictly preliminary and subject to sizeable revisions. We will provide a second (and, arguably, more accurate) estimate of Q1 2014 GDP in early May, a few days before EL.STAT publishes its flash national accounts for the first quarter of this year. All in all, we consider our Nowcasting model estimates as being broadly consistent with a switch into positive year-on-year GDP growth rates from the third quarter of 2014 onwards.