Greece Macro Monitor (June 6, 2014)
A brief overview of recent macroeconomic developments in Greece
High frequency indicators signal ongoing stabilization in domestic economic activity
After an unusually steep and prolonged economic recession that has slashed some 26 points from Greek GDP over the last six year or so, a recent string of real activity data and confidence indicators signals an ongoing stabilization of the domestic economy. This view is supported by the more recent European Commission projections (spring 2014 forecasts), which envisage a return of Greek output growth to a positive territory this year on the back of higher exports and reviving investment activity. Although considerable risks continue to surround the domestic macro outlook, the road to sustainable economic growth now appears to be based on a more solid ground than a few quarters earlier. In what follows, we provide a brief overview of recent economic data, which appear to support our view for a switch into positive YoY GDP growth rates from Q3 2014 onwards.
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