Dr. Platon Monokroussos, Chief Market Economist, Deputy General Manager, Eurobank Ergasias S.A
Upbeat Q1 GDP readings in the region boost investors’ optimism towards the region
REGIONAL MACROECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS & OUTLOOK
- First quarter output performance of the region surprised to the upside
- The revival of consumer spending is supported by lower energy costs plus higher real disposable incomes
- To make this growth momentum last, it is essential to reinvigorate investments
- Most regional central banks to remain accommodative for the remainder of the year
REGIONAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS & OUTLOOK
- Emerging bourses remain underpinned by ECB’s QE, scaled back Fed rate hike expectations and optimism about further stimulus measures in China
- Being largely influenced by domestic developments, regional stock markets have presented a rather mixed picture over recent weeks
- Government bond yields rise trailing the recent sell-off in core Eurozone and US bond markets
COUNTRY FOCUS
- Bulgaria: GDP growth gained momentum in the first quarter
- Cyprus: Successful tapping of international markets through a new 7Y issuance
- Romania: Front-loaded food VAT rate cut will push inflation in negative territory
- Serbia: Staff-level agreement with the IMF reached in the context of the SBA’s first review
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