China Shipping Report Q1 2016

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In 2016, China’s shipping sector is poised to enjoy a healthy year and the country’s ports once more dominate the global top 10, a scenario which is not set to change any time soon. The outperformer in y-o-y tonnage terms is set to be one of China’s smaller ports, the port of Basuo with annual gains of 8.3%, while the country’s two largest ports at Shanghai and Shenzen are pencilled in to register steady box and tonnage growth over the next 12 months. Growth is predicated on the fact that China will remain one of the world’s most attractive consumer stories over the next five-to-ten years, underpinned by several structural dynamics including a rebalancing of the economy towards private consumption, demographic trends, greater urbanisation rates, rising GDP per capita and the increase of household leverage.

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We forecast that China’s consumer story will remain a very bright spot over the coming years, despite the structural slowdown in the economy and we forecast that real private consumption will grow by an average of 8.0% per year over the next ten years. This will see private consumption rise as a share of GDP to 44.3%, from the current low level of 36.1% and is very much in line with the government’s efforts to rebalance the economy away from investment and towards consumption. Over our medium-term forecast period, we do not envisage any major fluctuations in y-o-y growth at China’s main ports.