With a total geopolitical and economic mess and with the possibility of a total economic global collapse the BDI struggles at 395 points; John Faraclas on the weekly shipping markets and geopolitics:
The BDI was up three point closing at 395, that’s seven points up since last week’s 388 points – still far apart from the closing of December 2014 when it stood at 2, 274 points (short term) and from the all times high of June 2008 when it stood at 11, 793 points (long term)… Unfortunately figures speak for themselves!
- The BCI 2014 stood at 197, that is 19 points plus since yesterday and 21 since last week’s 176 points. T/C rates have been even below US$ 1, 000 per day…
- The BPI was down four at 463, but 24 points plus since last week’s 477 points.
- The BSI just four points plus and …29 better off from last week’s 420 points.
- The Handies’ BHSI ended just two points up, but eleven overall from last week’s 249 points.
Although …a plus market, very very low with owners – listed or unlisted floored down, with more vessels seeking lay-up berths and creditors of any kind demanding here and now payments of due money from finance facilities; too much is at stake.
The daily news in wide circulation shipping papers and sites tell of the disaster and we feel there is more to come.
The Wets were on a better mode; the last published BDTI and BCTI stood at 872 and 501 points respectively, that’s seven and one since the reported but also 78 and 7 points plus since last Friday’s 794 and 494 points respectively – a better market compare with the dry one…
The box ships, despite the slump are a steady investment, but you need a good negotiator whether you are a liner or tramp owner. Containerships or better say contbulkers are the best tool if you know intermodalism and its details…
LNG’s are also another good prospect.
The cruise market needs a bit of re-vamp…
The price of oil, volatile as ever and as you read these lines the WTI tries to go above the US$ 40 mark and stay, but it falls back; still very low and might go down again – US$ 20 or even upwards at US$ 70; are both levels’ possibilitis to see, opposite to each other but still feasible… Once we see the slump in commodities evaporate, then we might talk a bit more positive…
On the Geopolitical front:
The unity of the European Union is still at stake – be it the Migrants, BREXIT and GREXIT, as well as many other divisions amongst the 28 member states, shakes the foundation of the 500million people, being also the most prosperous union/block from the rest of the world.
The Migrants will send many regimes in Europe to history’s books – you dead well know what I mean.
Turkey opts, in the way its politicians behave, to create more mess. Time will tell, and we don’t want to hear any excuses from many “makers and shakers” in Brussels on the outcome. The EU should not succumb to the Turkish blackmail! Enough!
The Syrian saga is far from over… New maps of the entire region have been drawn and wonder how Turkey will react with the final announcement of the Kurdish state, part of which already exists in Northern Iraq and this time, personally, I doubt it that it won’t go ahead, as it did after World War One! Times change!
The manhunt for Terrorists and the real bastards, who massacred innocent people in Paris, continues in Belgium and elsewhere.
The BREXIT issues mentioned above will shake the Conservative party and the entire United Kingdom; caution as things might go far worse than originally envisaged by David Cameron.
The GREXIT too is always on the cards in Greece as, until now, we haven’t seen the real reforms to make Europe’s real self-sustained nation go back to the real good days. The media world-wide do not concentrate on real issues. As for the Greek politicians, they all care ONLY for remaining as MP’s; end of the story. We believe that only something spectacular can only save Greece, Europe and the World, as a spill over of the situ in Greece will only have detrimental effects for all. So long as Greece faces to the ground, things will be bad for all. This is Europe’s pestering style; that’s the truth. Let those who let the Greek borrowing continue for nearly four decades pay the bill! We invite you once again to read and study our last year’s live interview on Greece and all its problems and you will understand our position for this and whatever else you read herein today!
Now imagine a fall of both the regimes in the United Kingdom and Greece; a real bankrupt Germany will opt for …English sausage rolls and Greek cheese with Chiot beer; you never ever know! Other EU nations will immy follow suit and Putin will also change his agenda!
North Korea plays with fire and I guess the Americans and others in the region will lose patience…
Africa in turmoil and we need a consensus as many countries are in danger. North Africa from the Ceuta to the Suez Canal might become more than messy – beyond imagination! Algeria, Egypt, not to mention Libya…
Dilma Rousseff in Brazil needs more than her entire nation’s support, as if Brazil falls, the entire South America will collapse overnight! All you need to do is an honest analysis!
The US elections will be messy and all the world needs is two candidates that really care for the American people and then for the world at large. One wonders what is going to happen after the elections… Tough! Pax Americana in danger…?
So, all in all, a very difficult global situ and we call for restrain on all fronts. We must ensure that the world’s dire straits remain free and open for navigation…
Despite all the above and the further worsening on all fronts, this is the best ever market for the shipping industry; cheap and good tonnage will be available shortly, particularly newbuildings of all types and sizes!
The Tale of Two Crisis last week at the LSE (Friday and Saturday) was a unique, a great event!
The IFSTS 2016 yesterday and today was a success too.
Another interesting event was the book launch “A financial Crisis Manual; Reflections and the Road Ahead” at the LSE Hellenic Observatory with Dr. Platon Monokroussos and other co-authors offering us a great debate! A book not to be missed!
P.S. 1. We don’t hold any crystal ball, we just hold appropriate info and analysis!
P.S. 2. We need to see the perpetrators of this latest shipping crisis, better say shipping scam seat on the dock. Only then we will avoid in the future such incalculable catastrophes. It was a scam! Come on, who will really very openly tell you what to do in shipping! Wake up and give names and reports, all these expensive ones, were / are still only good for the bin… Any objection? These are scandals but no one dares to speak up! I really feel content and at ease as in many fora, over the last sixteen years, particularly ever since 2004, I have warned of what is to come; not to mention the written reporting. With this we invite any one objecting this last para to come live on TV! We do not hold any crystalball, we are only pragmatic analysts, both in shipping as well as in geopolitics!