With only one point plus the BDI, as we have said on the 19th, is losing steam; John Faraclas questions the viability of the shipping markets…
The Capers, branded the most …”predictably” volatile size lost 18 points since yesterday and the respective BCI 2014 index now stands at 1, 004, just four points above the 1, 000 points threshold!
The Panamaxes saw their respective index, the BPI losing four points, now standing at 743… The other two indices, the Supras and Handies BSI and BHSI gained eight and six points respectively (551 and 348), but, repeat but couldn’t save the day… It is such an unfortunate period, given the geopolitical factor, the technological changes in the shipbuilding industry itself, that things might turn sour once again.
For a start we have maintained the view that only above the 2, 000 the BDI really makes sense! The Architects of the New World’s order phase two wish to make the situation far worse. The ferocity with which the State and Public Corporations attack anything private will escalate and the issue, better say the pattern of ownership, will determine the future on Planet Ocean, conversely the shipping industry!
Many companies as we have predicted are going down, some are going under, joining the 25 centum which has already collapsed. Some might use specialist techniques to remain afloat and will be very interesting to see what’s about to happen! Greediness is now as if you shot your own feet… Wonder where was the risk assessment which long ago we have on purpose mentioned. Where are all those specialist advisors to save the day of many flamboyant guys and dolls – on the dry, wet, and box markets! We are not holding any crystal ball whatsoever but we keep our cards close to our chest when predicting the projectability of the markets. There is though another aspect, that of the banks and financial institutions, funds, as well as the stock markets’ assessment – for the short and long term, as they have failed and they are to blame. On some cases, on a ratio 70/30 it is them to blame for the state of the markets – we have explained the reasons in past reporting over the last five years that this medium …makes waves! Personally since the Millennium I have warned of what is to come – always in writing. Proper info is not just power, but execution so to speak!
Too many skeletons in the cupboards. Expect to hear the worst, unless… a war breaks – you dead well know what I mean (survive on conflict of vested interests…).
The Geopolitics also will favour those with state/public contracts; difficult days for “the princes of the seven seas”. Now, more than ever before you need two in a tango… The new clashes not only in the known hot spots, but also in other regions, are for the lot unpredictable; so take cover and converge to survive. Selectivity is one issue to care for… The new newbuilding trend will also make things worse, but technology is the name of the game. For those with interest in etymology, check what really technology means! It will be beyond the effect of the Industrial Revolution; it will be beyond the changing times from sail to steam; it’s going be, with all due respect, a nice hell; a chaos so to speak. Let’s see how many know how to thrive in chaos!
We live in interesting times, inevitably!
Have a nice evening!