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Counting down to the June 23rd EU referendum (Wednesday, June 22, 2016)

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Lloyd's of London Sept 2014Global Economic & Market Outlook – Focus Notes (Wednesday, June 22, 2016)

Counting down to the June 23rd EU referendum


  • – The road to the UK’s June 23rd EU referendum
  • – Economic arguments of the “Remain” and the “Leave” campaign
  • – Near-term market reaction of the UK asserts on the outcome of the EU referendum
  • – Possible implications of a Brexit on the UK and the EU
  • – Opinion polls: The EU referendum outcome remains too close to call
  • – Final result of the EU referendum to be known early morning of June 24th

The road to the June 23rd EU referendum

In a speech in January 2013, UK PM and leader of the Conservative Party David Cameron outlined the key principles for the UK’s EU membership; economic governance, competitiveness, sovereignty and immigration. He vowed to renegotiate a “better deal” for the UK’s EU membership and put the result to an ‘In/Out’ referendum on the UK’s EU membership if his party was reelected at the May 7 th, 2015 general election. That promise figured prominently in David Cameron’ s 2014-2015 election campaign at a time he was under intense pressure from euro sceptics within his own party, and when his party appeared to be losing votes to the eurosceptic right-wing UK Independence Party (UKIP). At the February 18-19 EU
Summit, the UK PM secured an agreement that granted the United Kingdom a “special status” in the European Union, paving the way for the June 23rd referendum.

The concessions the UK Prime Minister secured and were the basis of his campaign in favor of the UK remaining in the EU envision, inter alia:

  • (i) sovereignty: the UK will not be obliged to commit to “ever closer” political integration into the European Union, which will subsequently be incorporated into an EU treaty change ;
  • (ii) economic governance: introduction of specific safeguards for the UK’s financial services industry to prevent EU regulations from being imposed upon the City of London;
  • (ii) competitiveness: the EU committed to increase efforts towards enhancing competiveness
  • (iv) immigration: application of an emergency brake with respect to inwork benefits for a period of up to four years from the commencement of employment.

What is the referendum question?

The EU referendum question is: “Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or
leave the European Union?”

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