WORLD ECONOMIC & MARKET DEVELOPMENTS
GLOBAL: Major Asian equity indices advanced to one-year highs on Monday and most European bourses headed for their biggest three-day positive streak, following a strong US employment report on Friday that lifted US stocks to a record high. In FX markets, the DXY dollar index was hovering around levels of 96.318 in early European trade on Monday, within distance from a one-week high of 96.522 hit on Friday on rising expectations for a Fed’s rate hike this year after the firm payroll data. Data calendar this week includes industrial production data for June for several countries. For the US, jobless claims on Thursday and July retail sales and August consumer sentiment on Friday will probably lure market attention. Last but not least, the second release for Q2 Euro area GDP growth on Friday is also expected to take centre stage.
GREECE: According to commercial transactions data (EL.STAT.), Greek exports and imports decreased on a yearly basis by -6.6% and -5.2% respectively in June 2016. The trade balance recorded a deficit of -€1,463.0 mn (+€46.7 mn relative to June 2015). Note that for the whole quarter, i.e. 2016Q2, the trade balance deteriorated by -€504.5 mn. Hence, the goods balance is expected to have a negative contribution to 2016Q2 (YoY%) GDP growth (flash estimate:12/8/2016).
SOUTH EASTERN EUROPE
SERBIA: The EURRSD remained bound within a 123.15 – 123.45 trading range in the past week. The Public Debt Agency June end data showed Debt to GDP at 73.1%.
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