John Faraclas
The BDI (Baltic Dry Index) closed up 86 points earlier on today after another Capers and Panamaxes unprecedented rally, but still, caution should be observed. The Geopolitical uncertainty will begin now to bite; John Faraclas’ daily Market Briefing:
With 86 points plus the BDI ended the day at 1,231 points which is nearly 1,000 points below the closing at the end of December 2013; so it is early days to celebrate – low profile should rule the day!
The Capers’ BCI 2014 gained another 290 points and now stands at 2,731 bringing an euphoria climate, but… We suggest caution!
The Panamaxes BPI with another 90 points plus now read 1,353 points.
The Supras’ BSI was up a good double digit figure of 26 points and now reads 748.
The Handies’ BHSI was up 11 points and now stands at 454 points
All in all an upwards Dry Market with all indices on a double digit plus (Capers on a triple), but we stress for caution caution caution; don’t become lured with this latest euphoria…
The Wets too on a plus modus; the last published BDTI (Dirties) and BCTI (Cleans) gained 46 and 19 points respectively and now read 786 and 430…
Many believe this is the end of the crisis as we knew it but they forget that at the same time the current figures do not add up and do not suggest for any recovery whatsoever and I bet you that we are going for more and more mess in an industry destined only for the very very very few! One has to see what happens with the accumulated debt that many shipping banks cannot sell… needless to say excuse… and exclude from their books… The backbone of the shipping companies, i.e the small to medium sized companies are getting bankrupt!
If you study in depth the reality of the markets, you will see and understand why this shipping crisis continues in all fronts, for all size and types. We can assure you that many companies listed or unlisted struggle, others go under, but at the same time others are formed and are completely clean, live and kicking! We might have 10.5 billion tonnes of cargo to carry every year with even an increase of its volume by 2 to 3 centum, but the world economy is in dire straits. The Banks have gone under and the plastic money debt is now well over the five trillion dollar mark! Now try to interpret this. Try also to interpret that we had 21 years apart of the two World Wars (1918-1939), we also had 21 good years of development and flourishing trade between 1945 and 1966 despite the Korean saga, Vietnam , but also from 1945 to day 71 years without war – despite the closure of the Suez canal and other geopolitical mess…. This affects trades, no matter how cynical it sounds. War Father of all, if you don’t destroy you cannot rebuilt; this is the pitiful message from history. The product of the Second world War were the long period time charters of the 50’s, 60’s and 70’s to rebuilt the world… Now you know. Meantime we have done nothing to maintain peace and have a positive plus trade and development as our diplomats, who earn a fortune, they have made it a mess with the politicians and their cronies; s h a m e! It is the dry markets, including the boxships that make the real trade!
The price of WTI was just above the US$ 45 at 45,08 and that shows also uncertainty, as the fluctuations between the US$ 43 and US$ 46 do cost a lot of money which-ever way you look at it…
The Geopolitical front’s issues continue to be a major concern:
The MIGRANTS still the number one problem; today another 100 of them were feared dead off the notorious Libyan coast! Turkey threatens to scarp the respective EU-Turkey agreement, unless we all succumb yet again to the Turkish yoke’s blackmail…
The Syrian saga continues with Aleppo being razed down and as we enter winter things might get sour for all sides. The war against ISIS continues but we don’t have much in the news, particularly the last days. We shall see… The battle for Mosul continues in Iraq with the bad whether affecting the advance of the attacking Iraqi Army and its coalition forces against the worst clan of terrorists! Finish them off!
Outgoing US president Obama, after his two-day visit in Athens Greece, were he also gave a speech on Democracy and pledges support for the country’s ailing economy, is now in Germany. He reiterates that Greece should be “favoured” and saved under the colossal and unsustainable debt, but Mrs Merkel and Mr. Wolfgang Schäuble have other designs – you will soon see them losing… everything. I guess you all realize that Germany too is about to fall from its colossal debts; if you don’t know this, or never heard it, check it!
The Baltic States issued a warning of fear that Russian president Putin might have new designs in the region there.
Let’s see if Japanese PM Abe, the first world leader meeting president elect Trump, continues to fancy him after a year or so…
BREXIT continues to make waves and coupled with the US election result might produce further tsunamis…
China is try to assert itself and find a way to remain at the forefront of developments, become the world’s superpower, but we do not share this view…
Brazilian police arrested a former governor of Rio in a corruption scandal embezzling nearly US$ 65 mio; we shall see what next there…
A view of the audience at the Eighth City of London Biennial Meeting
The first day of Eighth City of London biennial meeting titled “Striving for stability in a high Uncertain world” at the IMO was more than a success for the Grammenos Brigade! It continues tomorrow and it’s attended by over 700 maritime stakeholders from all over the world. Marlen Stapleton, Kristie Loutsiou, Michael Matthaiakis, Konstnatinos Pallis and their teams did their utmost to ensure it’s the best ever event of its kind. The entire Shipping Adventure is being covered to all intents and purposes and offers at these turbulent days, following eight bad years a rare chance to find solutions and avoid further mistakes. Quite a great and interesting number of questions took place… Expect a great day and finale tomorrow!
Philippe Donche-Gay speaking to the guests. To his left are Philippe Boisson, Nicholas Brown and at the far left BV’s London office manager Yanni Calogeras.
The Bureau Veritas Beaujolais party at Trinity House off Tower Hill, despite the rain and other events taking place at the same time, attracted over 300 guests… Who wasn’t there to say good bye to Philippe Boison and welcome to Nicholas Brown; excellent, à votre santé!
