Home Markets “Seasonal” volatility lifts the Markets; geopolitics still an enigma

“Seasonal” volatility lifts the Markets; geopolitics still an enigma

by admin

John Faraclas

The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) closed up 40 points since last Friday the 3rd of March and at 979 brings high expectations; the Wets too. The Geopolitical dangers though, loom in the background. John Faraclas’ brief recap:

So, the Ides of March have been denied as the BDI heads to the 1,000 point mark. Still far behind the level we insist it will produce a good return for your investment.

The Capers’ volatility continued with yet another 100 points, to be precise 118 points plus, bringing the BCI 2014 at 1,345 points.

The Panamaxes with 36 point plus saw its BPI standing at 1,154 points.

The Supras on a low single digit of eight points, but plus modus with the BSI now reading 852 maintain its momentum…

The Handies’ BHSI on a low also but plus state with six points now stands at 468…

So, an improved plus market, but the caution from this side remains! Still under the 1,000 mark, the BDI has a long way to go! As we have numerous times explained, we need to see the BDI at least at 2,200 to make sense.

The Wets had low but positive gains; the last published BDTI (Dirties) and BCTI (Cleans) stood at 841 – up four and 611 – up eight respectively.

Expect to hear soon a couple of Container companies bankruptcies; Hanjin will then look like a kindergarten…

The shipbuilding war in the Far east begins soon… Meantime Europe must rise to the circumstances and protect its shipbuilding and shiprepair industry…

The energy front also will produce a bit of a mess with the pipelines which others propose for peace and others for security; both they are wrong as the allocation and  direction comes too early given the mess in the Middle East and Caucuses regions, to begin with…

The price of WTI stood earlier on at US$ 53,22, a bit on the falling side; we shall see…

The Geopolitics maintain its ugly face in all fronts and now enter the trade too – energy being the biggest next issue after the MIGRANTS.

The Migrants continue to make a messy Mighty Continent with the latest being Amnesty International’s and other NGO’s demo in Brussels urging the “system” for the Migrants to leave Greece and be forwarded to other European nations per the latest agreement…

At the other side of the Atlantic, president Trump signed a new executive order which bans people from six Muslim countries; this time Iraq was excluded. The ban is for 90 days…

The Wars in the Middle East continue with minimal news…  Syria is becoming a no-man’s land so does Iraq and in particular for both countries the destruction in incalculable. The major and regional powers in the region have executed both countries citizens and it seems no end to hostilities… why? They haven’t as yet agreed how they will divide these and other countries in the region. The Putin agenda, for the time being works… What about later and at what cost for all involved… Caution as the prolonged hostilities will give a rise to terrorism…

Turkey creates a mess both in the region as well as to its neighbours, Greece and Cyprus as well as to north European ones, such as the Germany. Erdogan’s as well as his ministers behaviour will fuel discontent and beyond… Meantime, the Turkish economy is in tatters and that’s very serious…

Next door in Greece, things continue pretty much the shame per the last two years with further degrading of this southern European EU and NATO country. Caution as the backfire there will be devastating for all.

BREXIT continues and for sure it will shake the world in its foundations. The die is cast.. Meantime congratulations to the security forces who prevented since 2013 13 potential terror attacks!!

At the other side of the Channel the French prepare for the election of their new president in a very messy environment…

In Merkel’s Germany there are new kids in the block; can the block her? Expect a surprise to all from the final German elections…

The European Union continues to be in an awkward situation; some leaders prefer to start again the north / south divide with a Europe of multi speeds…

In Ukraine and in particular in eastern Ukraine we are advised of the continuation of hostilities…

In the pacific, North Korea fired four ballistic missiles at the Sea of Japan. When Abe response back, it will be too late for North Korea. Now don’t tell me that China and the other North Korean backers cannot end this stalemate… It will be a dangerous stand-off with incalculable repercussions, including environmental ones…

In China growth is cut to 6,5 centum and in general this is the lowest for over 26 years; caution as if China backfires, same will affect the entire world.

In Africa the mess continues and spills over; in Libya there is concerned about the oil ports and in particular oil terminals; caution…

More tomorrow live… In the meantime take care and be on guard for every eventuality as terrorists of any kind loom in the background!

P.S. Watch the super powers military spending and increase in armaments. The race begins now and Peace remains just a word…

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