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Still caution on both the Markets and Geopolitics

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John Faraclas

The BDI (Baltic Dry Index) closed earlier on today on a positive tone at 1,240 points; geopolitics though were far worse than last week. John Faraclas’ weekly recap:

The BDI gained 44 points since yesterday as well as from last week’s 1,196 points and managed to end the week in a positive tone.

The Capers’ BCI 2014 with ups and downs managed to end the week at 2,482 points – up 137. On a weekly though basis the rise was halved at plus 69 points – from last week’s 2,413 points.

The Panamaxes did well with the BPI up 48 points since yesterday and 110 from last Friday’s 1,108 points, now reading 1,218.

The Supras’ BSI slowly but steadily comes up; on a daily basis the index was up just four points at 896 approaching the 900 points threshold; on a weekly basis the17 plus points were very much needed!

The Handies too did “well” – the BHSI ended the week at 526 points – up five since yesterday and 18 points plus from last week’s 508 points.

A better dry market but still missing the 1,000 points from December’s 2013 closing… A must to see this happening; only then we can talk about a stable and sustainable level encouraging further positive development. Having said this, we need to see acceleration of scrapping and control in ordering newbuildings. It might sound a bit of an oxymoron this last view but is a reality given the favourable prices in this excellent buyers’ market!

The Wets with mixed feelings – the last published BDTI (Dirties) and BCTI (Cleans) stood at 812 – minus four and 807 – up 17 points respectively. On a weekly basis though the Dirties lost 20 points and the Cleans gained a hefty 106 points – up 106! A must to see both indices above the 1,000 point mark!

Many Sales and Purchase transactions took place this week including entire fleets. Wonder how valuations are being adapted…

The WTI stood at US$ 48,14 slightly lower from last Friday’s US$ 48.72… Good news so long as it remains below the US$50 mark!

The Geopolitics made a further step towards the bottom and it remains to be seen what will be the post Easter situation…

The MIGRANTS still on top as the most important issue with many casualties in Spain and Turkey from desperate people challenging all of us and some losing their lives including children. Pity! Brace for more given the improvement of the weather conditions and possibly Turkey’s behaviour against the EU, needless to say as a result of worsening of the situation in many countries from Gibraltar to Afghanistan and from Eastern Ukraine down to the Horn of Africa… In the Americas too the MIGRANTS issue continues to rise…

The Wars in Syria and Iraq with ISIS and other functions continues and it remains to be seen when the superpowers will sign peace with all combatants there; a very strange situation with too many fronts open… Over 200 are feared dead in Mosul following an airstrike tonight by the coalition forces. Nearly half a million are trapped in the Old  City of Mosul with 180,000 already fled and another 300,000 ready to follow. Same situ as in Syria…

Israel continues to stay put, but gave some warnings to Syria… Another nation to watch in the region,,,

In nearby Egypt former president Hosni Mubarak 88 has been freed from detention six years after the uprising there when he was accused for complicity in the killing of protesters during the uprising in 2011 and allowed to return to his home…

Turkey continues to pester not only all those in its Eastern Mediterranean neighbourhood but beyond – Switzerland being the latest …“victim”… following war of words with Germany, The Netherlands and Bulgaria; president Erdogan has his own agenda and it is about time to demonstrate him what is zero tolerance. Enough!

Next door in Greece the situation continues to be critical… Internally there is discontent and externally beyond that… Greece is critical for the regional peace and European unity… Wonder how many share this. Greece celebrates tomorrow its 196th Anniversary from the beginning of the 1821 revolution to oust the Ottoman yoke…

The Balkans are also about to explode given the issues in former Yugoslavia, Kosovo, Albania and FYROM. The next wars in the region will be devastating…

BREXIT continues; if I may say, it will be at the end of day the best ever decision the British people took. Wednesday the 29th of March is fast approaching when Mrs. May will trigger article 50! Mind me under common logic we are all pro-European but Brussels and the German dominance has rocked the boat. See how they treat Greece and see what next with this despicable behaviour. Jean-Claude Junker, the president of the European Commission warns of the EU’s collapse if more nations follow; too late Mr. Junker… Caring now for the dignity of European Citizens in Britain and British in Europe is one thing past actions yet another…Tomorrow the celebrations for the 60th Anniversary for the Treaty of Rome will go ahead with leaders from 27 nations attending the event in the Eternal City. There will also be “March for Europe” rallies in the British capital and Rome as a last chance to relaunch and complete Europe’s political and economic unity… Any chance of success and reversing the tide…?

Wednesday’s events with a terrorist going lose must be taken seriously. Too much in such a short period of time with five dead and nearly 40 or so injured. Despite all this the public stood united and strong enough to maintain its freedom as life continues and hope this adversity will strengthen more the British people, Europeans and the free world all over Planet Ocean to remain cool in such circumstances and tackle terrorism appropriately! Good job done by the security services in making significant arrests!

In Belgium’s Antwerp another incident yesterday with the same method of driving a car against pedestrians had a safe ending with the public and security forces stopping the terrorist. It comes a day after the anniversary of the massacre in Zaventem Airport and in Brussels  when 32 people were killed and over 300 injured.

Interesting remarks by Russia’s president Putin following Marine Le Pen’s visit in Moscow  “..she represents a ‘fast-growing element’ of European politics…” he said. Marine Le Pen called for lifting of the sanctions there… Interesting exchanges… The forthcoming French presidential election seems plain sailing, but what if Marine does the trick; can you imagine… Oh la la… Meantime Chechnya’s hiccups might force president Putin to smash the resistance still ongoing on there by the Islamist separists following the latest incident with six dead and an equal number from the insurgents… Caution as the North Caucuses might produce tremors… some eyebrow in Washington as a NATO general accused Russians of possibly supplying the Taliban in Afghanistan with weapons…

In Ukraine next door an arms depot fire causes havoc and a major evacuation of over 20,000 people continued… The conflict continues in Eastern Ukraine and it remains to be seen who has the strongest nerves, the Russians, the Ukrainians, the Westerners… tough times there. We shall see as situation might become critical there with incalculable repercussions…

Crucial election in Hong Kong this Sunday; who will replace C Y Leung?

North Korea continues to play with fire… and the USA together with South Korea might react accordingly… Japan too feels unease…

China is watching closely developmenst thefre but also China might get wrongly involved in the dispute over South China Sea with too many “adversaries” there…

At the other side of the Pacific, president Trump withdraws his Healthcare Bill failing to obtain support from Congress… Trumpcare cannot yet win over Obamacare; we shall see.

A bit south in Northern South America Venezuela’s president Nicolas Maduro asks the UN for help to boost supplies of medicines. Tough times there… Expect a messy outcome in Venezuela…

That’s all more or less and we advise you to be on guard for every eventuality particularly from Pirates and Terrorists where ever you are. Have a nice weekend.

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