WORLD ECONOMIC & MARKET DEVELOPMENTS
GREECE: The return of the institutions’ mission heads to Athens for the preparation of a staff-level agreement has not yet been decided. Therefore, a framework agreement at the April 7 Eurogroup is becoming less likely although it cannot be ruled out as deliberations from a distance reportedly continue. According to press reports, it is understood that the main contentious issue concerns the decrease of the personal difference in pensions. With regard to the medium term debt relief measures, according to press reports, the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) is already discussing potential scenarios with individual member-states in order to come up with a collectively acceptable solution that could be presented at the May 22 Eurogroup.
SOUTH EASTERN EUROPE
SERBIA: The EUR/RSD remained bound within a tight trading range of 123.80/00 – 123.90/10 last week as investor caution prevailed ahead of the April 2nd Presidential elections in Serbia. Regarding Sunday’s ballot, Prime Minister and leader of the ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) Aleksandar Vucic won the elections in the first round.
CESEE MARKETS: Emerging market assets were supported earlier today from upbeat factory data from China. In FX markets, the Turkish lira lost some ground after March’s inflation surprised to the upside. On the flipside, the Serbian dinar firmed after a decisive win by Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic on Sunday’s Presidential elections. Looking into this week’s CESEE calendar, Central Bank meetings in Poland and Romania on Wednesday lure market attention. Also in Romania, final Q4 National Accounts data are also in focus, as is a review by S&P on the country’s sovereign credit rating, both on Friday.
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