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The BDI@1,034: The perfect fall and opportunity

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John Faraclas

Another falling day for all the indices but let’s be pragmatic: it is also an opportunity for some wise-thinking companies… Geopolitics are getting sour and we advise the shipping world to be on guard. John Faraclas’ midweek recap:

The BDI was down 39 points approaching the 1,000 point threshold and everything is possible… It was a “natural” and “expected” fall given that most charterers have fixed most of their cargoes so they are having …a break… That’s another interpretation, but all in all it is a bad market and as numerous times have said: One needs to see the end of December 2013 levels of above the 2,200 points to make sense… One needs to see period fixing at least for a year – the optimum would be for five to ten years, so in the  absence of these long term fixtures you can understand how bad is the global economy and conversely the markets, the rest is pure nonsense; sorry but this is the situ right now… Brace for another crisis… Is there hope to advert same?

The Capers lead the way with the BCI 2014 losing 126 points down to 1,542…

The Panamaxes at 1,096 – down 44 are also approaching a dangerous zone, although demand for fixing these vessels – post-panamax or otherwise will be good..

The Supras were down 14 points at 835 and the Handies saw the BHSI losing another ten points – now reading 540!!

So, we are on a high and dry position… CAUTION for all, but also one should capitulate on the opportunities available… which arise in these market parameters! A great, a fantastic, a unique buyers’ market; a market which is punishing the banks and yards and brokers for their arrogance behaviour in the past decade!  One can built, still, cheap tonnage of any type! The few, the very few will survive… that’s it, full stop and period! Wonder the scandalous straight finance loans when we will see the bankers “offered” same in the past  to various owners being punished!!!! Money for finance is drying out and funds appear… Dangerous developments ahead… I am very cautious with the various funds that appear… The Stock Markets are for the time being the only safe heaven for all!

The Wets too on a downwards mode; the last published BDTI (Dirties) and BCTI (Cleans) stood at 778 – minus seven and 590 – minus 23 respectively…

The price of WTI as these lines are written reads US$ 47,73… Upwards but volatile too…

The Geopolitics are still the same; The MIGRANTS on top, an issue which MUST be settled before it is too late for all…

The Wars in Syria and Iraq so long as they continue with no Peace in sight will destabilise an area beyond the architects of these wars have ever imagined…

Turkey becomes a liability for all with its despicable attitude – both within were all events and developments point out to a harsh dictatorial regime coupled with religious fever; just wait and see. The Turkish foreign policy continues with provocations and blackmail to all and for all intents and purposes…

Greece too is in a mess and those in power as well as in opposition and their populists policies cannot deter the foreign despicable factor strangulating the Greek people. The revenge one day will be monumental; remember this… Meantime we hear of continues efforts to destroy the Ministry of Shipping from within, an issue and practice that it always surfaces; time please… or else! It is despicable of what is being once again attempted; NO excuses!!!!

BREXIT will break-up the European Union… The European Union will be sold at a piecemeal the way things are going. Europe demands over 100 billion dollars; that’s the divorce bill so to speak… from the UK for the “divorce” proceedings of this exit and the British PM Teresa May accuses the EU of trying to affect the forthcoming elections…

The French presidential election’s last debate before this Sunday’s final vote (second round), in our humble view has split France deep down and conversely the European Union because of the issues mentioned/debated. Macron and Ms Le Pen exchanging blows proved how both can become morons for their populists’ ends… Pity! The media world-wide failed to be totally impartial and manipulate the public, not just in France, but all over Planet Ocean; shame!

Russia has its own agenda and so long the sanctions are in place, president Poutin will …sanction us in his own way. It seems Crimea is at a point of no return… One has to know to digest things as opening your appetite it could be worse. The fundamentals of Geopolitics, as things stand, are not good for the West, given also the common denominator the US and Russia and Europe are facing: Islamist terrorists… So one has to have an understanding and be a pragmatist. Can the super powers and in particular the Western ones so to speak put down the Islamists?

China is trying to fit-in as well as Japan in the situ,  so does India, but things will get sour. It is the 500 years changes on Planet Ocean that few can understand…

Watch-out for the ongoing palaver with North Korea…

Have a nice evening and be on guard for Pirates and Terrorists… looming in the background!!!

Uploaded 16:48 BST

Updated 23:55 BST

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1 comment

Harilaos Petrakakos May 6, 2017 - 6:50 AM

Dear John.
Thank you for your continued vigilance in respect to alerting us (your readers) about the geopolitical situations.
In the items you should try to include in your glass ball reading is the financial situations in China as well as India. The US as it has become apparent when they are in trouble they will create a war somewhere.
Issues to check is the slow down in the monetary expansion of the Chinese economy.
You and I exchange views especially during the summer months but it is essential to remember that looking at the fundamentals plays a big role in everyone’s look through the glass ball.
Keep it up John.


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