Regional Economics and Market Strategy Monthly (Tuesday, October 03, 2017)

Regional growth on solid footing in Q2-2017 

REGIONAL MACROECONOMIC & MARKET DEVELOPMENTS & OUTLOOK

• Q2-2017 second GDP estimates confirm a solid footing for most of the economies of the region
• Consumer spending revival continues unabated driven by sustained sentiment gains, eased financial conditions, tighter labor markets and robust real wage dynamics
• Regional assets extend gains in Q3 2017
• Regional bourses firm trailing the rally in emerging and major global stock markets
• Emerging external debt markets extend rally firm; regional currencies modestly weaken on idiosyncratic factors
• EM assets likely to remain range-bound into year-end as developing-economies’ fundamentals remain favorable but valuations are rich.

 COUNTRY FOCUS

• Bulgaria: Credit activity has started accelerating 
• Cyprus: New round of sovereign rating upgrades
• Romania: GDP growth outperformance in the second quarter
• Serbia: One-off factors in H1 2017 prompt downward revisions in full-year growth forecasts

Regional economies on solid footing in Q2-2017

Source: Eurostat, National Authorities, Eurobank Research

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REGIONAL MONTHLY_SEPTEMBER2017