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Uncertain and perplexed markets and …geopolitics

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John Faraclas – picture by ecopack77

The BDI (Baltic Dry Index) gained another 34 points and now reads 1,666; 44 points better off since last week’s 1,622 points. Volatility is here to stay and same together with perplexity applies for the messy Geopolitics; John Faraclas’ daily and weekly recap:

The Capes dominated both the volatility as well as the enigmatic and perplexed future of the markets; the BCI gained 115 point, nearly half of yesterday (gained 248) and now stands at 3,156 points. Overall it gained 70 points since last Friday’s closure of 3,086 points. This was the week that we witnessed an unusual volatility and the guessing is that something wrong is taking place – soon we will know…

The Panamaxes’ BPI clinched ten points and now reads 1,527; on a weekly basis we had some rich pickings – 180 points (from 1,347)…

Stagnation and minor losses for both the Supras and the Handies; the BSI an dhte BHSI gained one point and now stand at 995 and 559 points respectively; on a weekly basis (as of the 6th of July) both categories lost four points (from 999 and 563 respectively; last week’s closing).

All in all an uncertain Dry Market.

Mixed feelings for the Wets; the last published BDTI (Dirties) and BCTI (Cleans) stood at 738 – minus three and 500 – plus one respectively. On a weekly basis the Dirties were up 28 points – from 710 and the Cleans down two – from 502 respectively.

The WTI was down a bit at US$ 70.50 – better since last week’s US$ 73.90 !!!! Let’s hope it will drop further!

The Geopolitical front is so perplexed with all the events we report all these years and gone worse with president Trump’s visit in the UK and Continent.  The MIGRANTS, the Wars in the Middle East, a sliding to economic chaos Turkey,  Greece in total limbo, the EU in disarray, the USA with too many issues and the Pacific Basin in tatters. Africa? Latin and South America??? Russia?? The Balkans… Trade Wars and the mega Environmental Mayhem…

More analytically:

The Migrants issue, the most important from all other issues put together, delivers until now an inhumane response from all over the political spectrum across Europe; in the South, Italy becomes stubborn so to speak, currently at loggerheads with Malta, Spain and the rest of the EU. Spain, Italy and Greece – conversely their populations suffer despicable things:  change and destruction of social cohesion, and the local communities there live dangerously. In the Central/North Europe different issues appeared, still shameful though with the politicians there totally out of any context – their behaviour leaves us speechless.

Obviously from the one side it is OK and easy to condemn countries that allow the Migrants travel north, but is this the real issue? The case begins, as we have numerous times written in our reports, from the politicians and the diplomats; from lawless nations such as Libya or Turkey which blackmails Europe to the Arab/Islam World which in reality turns a blind eye. It begins from the fact that Muslim countries in the region NOT at war do not take the MIGRANTS, at least, the 90 centum of these MIGRANTS are Muslims! The situation stems from the fact that we are in a mess and politics more than cynical. We repeat our position and we provoke all those supposed to be knowledgeable that ONLY a Naval Blockage will do the trick; a Naval Blockade with a Mandate and Rules of Engagement. END OF THE STORY!

Just to remind you that in 2018 until today – July 13th, about 40,000 (forty thousand) have crossed over to Spain (10,000), Italy (16,000) and Greece (14,000)… At least 1,000 have been drowned – mostly children. What a shame in 2018!

You have economic Migrants, Asylum seekers – and the respective messy process on them…

You have Migrants from War torn countries as well as from Civil and Religious Wars nations…

You have Migrants from dictatorial and despotic regimes from all over the place…

The World “hasn’t learned” from the boat people in the Far East during the 70’s, 80’s and 90’s… Another shame following the end of the Vietnam War..! Remember, eh! Hong Kong was a magnet, Macau too, then Singapore… even down to Australia, yet we haven’t learned the lesson and we remain as a society totally inhumane! Remember that under pressure from the UK, Hong Kong reluctantly took on the burden of allowing boat people to land hoping that they will settle in neighbouring countries such as Singapore and Malaysia which turned the boats back at sea!!! Remember?? Many perished – lost their lives to pirates, raped and robbed while at sea; don’t tell me you don’t remember!! The situation continues today all over – Libyan and Turkish traffickers, Pakistani and Afghanis too! Any objection?  And, AND (with capital letters) add what’s happening at the other side of the Atlantic with the USA and Mexico: simply appalling! Simply shameful! In Venezuela too… Where are the values of the Western World??

Going a bit further, we all know that  there isn’t housing available, housing of any kind whatsoever and medical attention also must be a priority. I suggest all those inactive passenger and cruise ships to be mobilised under an emergency proviso and house many in need. With a good planning this can be done! It is a matter of will and determination for and from all political leaders! By avoiding to ensure a just solution we are creating terrorists; any objection?

In the Syrian and Iraqi Wars now; Assad forces retake finally Deraa from were the revolt begun back in 2011… American led coalition forces strikes continued; this time against ISIS remnants at al-Soussa in the Dar Al-Zour province with scores being killed. CAUTION; finished them off without any deal whatsoever! Israel also continues to get involved trying to eliminate the Hamas and Iranian supporters of president Assad; the issue being though if Israel can confront Putin’s Russia in its effort to continue and preserve its vested interests in the region.-

Turkey will soon enter its worse period as bankruptcy is ante portas and that will affect its interior with incalculable repercussions. In the meantime president Erdogan continues to stir up Turkey’s neighbourhood to the worse extent. He must end the North Cyprus occupation, live peacefully with Greece in the Aegean and make up with the EU. Moreover Turkey and its leader MUST here and now stop the revolt he creates on religious and other issue in the Balkans…

Greece, unless a new leader appears heading an ARISTOS government will slide into another financial crisis…Tensions with Russia proved that PM Tsipras gets the message to work with the West… The expulsions of Russian diplomats might create a dangerous  situation and other issues might surface particularly over fYRoM. Expect a major crisis in Greece… The USA must intervene as German led EU has spectacularly failed so fa to save Greece. It has ruined Greece. Greece’s debts will never ever be honoured; it is impossible! Those who believe so – within or outside Greece, are Business Hooligans and Political terrorists!

Italy will have soon to tackle a major financial crisis, unless the Italians opt NOT to pay-back Brussels!

The USA president’s visit in Europe and the United Kingdom meeting  H.M. the Queen and politicians was possibly the main news surpassing anything we heard or read before in our lifetime on such occasions, particularly on two countries with such a special relation!!!.  Lets hope that a USA- UK trade deal will come into force; I hate to talk on possibilities. One could expect a different approach with the United Kingdom’s PM; Mrs May in our view is doing her best! The entire House of Commons and The Lords MUST rally behind Mrs. May or else… President Trump has his own agenda on all things and issues one can think off… Fake or non Fake news as he said vis-à-vis his views on BREXIT, the Trade Agreements et al, will be thoroughly seen in the coming hours, days, weeks, months and years to come. I am very impressed with his attitude and there isn’t anybody to stop him in materialising: AMERICA comes FIRST! Let’s see the forthcoming meeting with Russia’s supremo Vladimir Putin in Finland next week; too many issues, but four are more than crucial: the Nuclear Proliferation, the Syrian saga with the gross  wider Middle East ongoing mess, the Trade Wars and finally the Hacking in the 2016 US presidential elections. All eyes point to Helsinki! Watch this space…

President Trump has begun the Trade War and he will pursue same. China will be his appetite and China MUST conform with USA’s policy. The Tariffs are the first step.  Russia comes next. Iran and North Korea follow. Too many fronts; only a politician businessman can respond to these demanding issues. Let’s watch how he tackles same.  Shipping of course will be affected but there are also many opportunities for those they know how to handle these situations and the Environment. New Ships are on the Horizon!

In South and Central America: Watch out Nicaragua; mind the situation in Venezuela... Let’s see the new constitution in Cuba and how the reforms there work…  Private property will be recognised!!!

In Africa another top story on Migrants; Algeria reduced the number of Migrants. Less droppings now in Sahara… Most are within the two nations borders, Algeria and Mali… Another catastrophe with traffickers  calling the shots…

The MeerKAT, the largest and most powerful radio telescope in the southern hemisphere, was officially launched in South Africa. Well done!

Bin Laden’s  bodyguard was deported in Tunisia following a case he lost from a ruling of the Migration authorities, but strangely enough  – in our view there was a court ruling in Germany against his deportation…

Carnage in Pakistan! At least 128 people were killed following a suicide bomber attack in south west Pakistan. That was the worse in the country since 2014!

Ah! Have we forgotten the South China Sea? Eh?

Have a nice evening as well as a nice weekend with plenty of Sports – tennis and the finale games of the 2018 Wold Cup Russia, but we urge you to continue to be on guard from Pirates, Terrorists and Criminals of any kind looming in the background wherever you are on Planet Ocean!



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