Eurobank’s Economic Analysis and Financial Markets Research Sector published today the first issue of the Economic Bulletin Economy & Markets for the year 2019. The issue features a study titled “Lessons from the Greek Crisis”. The study is co-authored by Prof. Nikolaos Karamouzis, Chairman of Eurobank Ergasias S.A. and of the Hellenic Bank Association, and Dr. Tasos Anastasatos, Group Chief Economist of Eurobank Ergasias S.A. and Chairman of the Scientific Council of the Hellenic Bank Association.
- The Greek crisis has had a devastating economic and social cost.
- The economic indicators’ warning signals were to a great extent ignored, not only domestically, but also by international markets, rating agencies and European official institutions.
- Ten major policy mistakes were made either by Greece or by the official creditors that unnecessarily exacerbated the cost and prolonged and duration of the adjustment.
- Eleven key obstacles and delays to reforms continue to inhibit and undermine a faster and more sustainable economic growth rate.
- It would take strong and sustainable growth rates of exports and investment for at least 10 years for delivering annual GDP growth in excess of 3%. Achieving these ambitious targets will require continued and deep pro-growth reforms, as well as commitment to fiscal, financial and institutional stability.
- The strong political ownership of the reform process, the front-loading of reforms, the timely reaction to problems and the avoidance of their spill over into other economic sectors and activities are key to effectively addressing macroeconomic imbalances and securing the conditions for strong future growth.
- The policy mistakes that led to the Greek crisis and hindered its efficient management must not be repeated, or else Greece risks finding itself in the same – or even worse – position again in the future.