Yaseen Anwar on Belt and Road, Desmond Lachman on the Fed and the next recession, and more
15-19 April 2019 Vol.10 Ed.16
OMFIF update – Week 16 2019
Belt and Road delivers crucial capital
China’s Belt and Road initiative provides access to capital for connected emerging markets that have not had the necessary investment grade ratings to tap international bond markets. Infrastructure, the core of Belt and Road funding, is and has been the engine of growth for most economies, writes Yaseen Anwar.
Political and economic implications of Brexit
Sir Jonathan Faull, partner and chair of European public affairs at Brunswick, and Thomas Costerg, senior economist at Pictet Wealth Management, join OMFIF’s Chris Ostrowski to discuss the significance of the latest Brexit delay, the long-term outlook for trade relations, and more.
US-China trade relationship developments
At this roundtable, Hung Tran, former executive managing director of Institute of International Finance, will argue that it is important to assess US-China trade relations from a wider perspective. He will discuss how Washington’s view of its relationship with Beijing has changed.
Need for international standards in BRI
Projects under the Chinese Belt and Road initiative have to be specific, well-designed and financeable, as well as fulfilling international standards, according to Baroness (Rona) Fairhead, minister of state at the UK ministry of international trade, at an OMFIF lunch on 15 April in London.
Brexit delay may mean end of May
Few predicted that the EU would extend the UK’s Article 50 negotiating period by six months. Theoretically, that should be long enough to facilitate change. But one major reason to believe October could be too early is that the UK might by then have a new prime minister, writes James Smith.
The next global recession
A year ago, the major economies were enjoying synchronised growth. Rising debt levels, tighter monetary policy, slowing GDP growth, populist politics and trade wars are now fueling talk of a recession.
This panel will discuss whether the end is nigh for the decade-long burst of global growth.
Finance and climate: ‘Distant thunder’
World finance needs more data, more disclosure and better risk management to master climate change challenges, the Bank of England’s Sarah Breeden told an OMFIF meeting in London focused on ‘greening’ China’s Belt and Road. ‘We can hear distant thunder,’ she said. ‘We cannot wait for the storm to hit.’
Fed running out of monetary ammunition
It is clear that President Donald Trump is not concerned with whether the US will have the resources to fight the next downturn. His quest for ultra-easy monetary policy might cause the economy to overheat.
Moreover, it would leave the Fed with scant ammunition to fight the next recession, writes Desmond Lachman.
Ahead of the ECB
Samy Chaar, chief economist at Lombard Odier, and OMFIF’s Danae Kyriakopoulou discuss the policy outlook for the European Central Bank. They analyse the macroeconomic backdrop behind the recent dovish signals coming from the ECB, especially the weakening economic outlook in Italy and Germany.
Brexit: The state of UK politics
Dominic Grieve, member of the UK parliament for Beaconsfield, will discuss the legal implications of the UK’s withdrawal from the European Union, and the increased role of parliament in the decision-making process. Further topics include the state of the Conservative party and its leadership.