David Marsh on the fall of German banking, Mark Sobel on IMF quotas, and more
29 April-3 May 2019 – Vol.10 Ed.18
The fall of German banking
The collapse of merger talks between Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank marks the latest episode in a 30-year downward spiral of German banks. Banking could be the ultimate battleground where Germany must decide between national and European priorities, writes David Marsh.
The internationalisation of renminbi
Robert Dohner, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, and David Loevinger, managing director of emerging markets at TCW Group, join OMFIF’s Pierre Ortlieb, to discuss the renminbi as an international reserve currency. Topics include the currency’s role in the liberalisation of capital account.
Rationalist suffused with humanity
David Green remembers Hendrikus Johannes ‘Johan’ Witteveen, the Dutch economist, philosopher, politician and international public servant. Best known for his 1973-78 term as International Monetary Fund managing director, Witteveen lived a rich and varied life spanning many worlds.
Staunch Keynesian and spiritual disciple
Johan Witteveen will be remembered as a brilliant economist, the last Keynesian of his generation, a lucid liberal and a life-long adherent of the Sufi spiritual movement, writes Roel Janssen. Through his Sufi convictions, he found the wherewithal to accept a great many terrible private sorrows.
US Treasury misguided on IMF quotas
The US Treasury’s welcome stance on sustaining overall International Monetary Fund resources merits support. But the glass is only half full – the Treasury’s position on quotas will set back multilateralism, promote regionalism and damage US interests, and should be reversed, writes Mark Sobel.
Economic outlook and challenges for East Asia
Hoe Ee Khor, chief economist at the Asean+3 Macroeconomic Research Office, will discuss the economic outlook and challenges for East Asia. These include regional economic integration and the impact of China’s economic slowdown, and developments in the region’s financial markets.
Power struggles weigh on South Africa
After years of corruption and poor management, South Africa faces a deteriorating fiscal balance, ballooning government debt and an unreliable power grid. These formidable headwinds are stifling economic growth and deterring corporate investment, write Michelle Middleton and Laura Ostrander.
Global financial stability risks
The global economy faces many risks, from political instability and economic uncertainty, to trade disputes and high inflation in some emerging markets. Fabio Natalucci, deputy director of the International Monetary Fund’s monetary and capital markets department, will outline the current and future risks.
De Guindos rejects ‘national champions’
Luis de Guindos, vice-president of the European Central Bank, rejected ‘national champions’ in European banking in a wide-ranging OMFIF City Lecture in London. In remarks seen as opposing the now-abandoned link-up between Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank, he said he favoured cross-border mergers.
Spanish economic outlook
Despite political uncertainty, economic growth in Spain has seen a 0.7% quarter on quarter increase, in line with its average rate following the euro area crisis. Nadia Calviño, Minister of Economy and Business, Ministerio de Economía y Empresa, will set out a course to maintain economic resilience.