Daily Overview of Global Markets & the SEE Region (Friday, 7 June, 2019)
WORLD ECONOMIC & MARKET DEVELOPMENTS
GLOBAL MARKETS: At its policy meeting yesterday, the ECB Governing Council reached unanimously two important policy decisions: (i) extended the forward guidance by six months to envisage unchanged interest rates “at least through H1 2020” from “at least through the end of 2019” previously; and (ii) announced further details about TLTRO-III that were less generous than those of TLTRO-II. Importantly, the ECB President’s overall tone appeared to suggest a shift in the Central Bank’s stance towards an easing bias. Meanwhile, European bourses opened slightly higher today on the view that additional accommodation may be needed by major CBs if escalating trade disputes weigh further on the global economy. In FX markets, the USD remained under pressure in early European trade with the DXY index standing 0.7% weaker so far this week amid increased expectations for lower Fed interest rates ahead following the latest escalation in the US/China trade dispute. With the ECB meeting out of the way, focus today is on US non-farm payrolls, which are expected to show another hefty rise of 185k in May.
GREECE: According to the Hellenic Statistical Authority (ELSTAT), in March 2019 the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 18.1% compared to 20.2% in March 2018 and the downward revised 18.4% in February 2019. Meanwhile, according to the Bank of Greece provisional data, in 2018 nominal prime office prices increased on average by 7.0% relative to 2017 for the country as a whole, against an increase of 1.8% in 2017 while nominal prime retail prices increased on average by 4.3% relative to 2017 for the country as a whole, against an increase of 1.7% in 2017.
SOUTH EASTERN EUROPE
BULGARIA: According to the revised estimate, real GDP growth accelerated to 1.2% QoQ/3.5% YoY in Q1-2019 up from 0.8% QoQ/3.2% YoY in Q4-2018.
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