Home MarketsChartering Market Uncertainty Rules the Waves …as well as Geopolitics and Coronavirus

John Faraclas

Market Uncertainty Rules the Waves …as well as Geopolitics and Coronavirus

Capes’ volatility, even on a low basis, affected the BDI (Baltic Dry Index), still below the 500 points. Geopolitics coupled with Coronavirus creates a more than gloomy environment. John Faraclas’ daily and weekly recap:

The BDI was up four points since yesterday at 498 and on a weekly basis 91 – from 407 last week (15/5)… As we have mentioned in our last month’s recaps, unless we see same over and above the 1,000 and then the 2,000 points threshold, nothing will happen to excuse good performance of the shipping investments. Never forget that we are over twenty years now in a transformation mode of the entire shipping industry… Shipping becomes shipping of the very very very few for both the Liner and Tramp sectors.

The Capes’ BCI was down 18 points today and now read 162; on a weekly basis, the BCI was up 136 – from 26! points last week. CAUTION…

Minor gains but gains for the most favourable size being the Panamaxes, with the BPI up 12 points at 635 and 32 on a weekly basis – up from 603!

Steady “growth” for the Supras’ BSI, now at 486 – up eight and on a weekly basis up 36 – from 450.

Finally, the Handies’ BHSI clinched six points and now read 249; the weekly gains being 19 good and valuable points – from 230.

So all in all: an uncertain Dry Market… We welcome comments from those that see the bright side coming…

The Wets with mixed feelings; the last published BDTI (Dirties) and BCTI (Cleans) stood at 735, minus 21 and 579 up 10 points respectively. The weekly figures stood at minus 117 for the Dirties – from 852 and losing the 800 points threshold and minus 125 from 704 for the Cleans, losing also both the 700 and 600 points threshold. CAUTION.

With respect the current state of the Markets and projections / advice given by brokers and analysts on what owners will, might, or have to do, remember that news is what they don’t tell us… Brokers are trying their best but market fundamentals are dead… and with the new World order, things are in a constant change… Accept the current Recession and think, for once, out of the box… keeping though your cards close to your chest!

The WTI on the rise now standing at US$ 33.25 – Last week (15/5) same stood at US$ 29.64. C A U T I O N.

The Cruise Industry and Air Travel as well as the Entire Tourist sector is in total disarray… CAUTION as nobody really knowns what to do and how to operate under Coronavirus’ Damocles Sward!

Geopolitics continue to be more than perplexed and be ready to see:

  1. Messy situations with MIGRANTS – it’s getting pathetic with politicians and the role of certain NGO’s with the social cohesion, in many countries, in the brink of collapse;
  2. Turkish aspirations which might cause warm incidents in the Central and East Med including the Aegean Sea; “Wonder” why the EU in particular allows president Erdogan to behave like this… When the shit hits the fan, be prepared to hear the music… I also wonder why the IMO’s Secretary –General isn’t interfering, unless he is not properly advised of the despicable sins by the Turkish Coast Guard in the Aegean Sea in pushing boats of “traffickers” and escorting same with MIGRANTS to the Greek Islands and the despicable premeditated manoeuvres, in even ramming on many occasions Greece’s Coast Guard Boats…
  3. EU clashes for financial issues and BREXIT’s many surprises are on the cards… We might even see the BREXIT transition period being extended… Mind me, and forget the excuses that Coronavirus is creating delays: the truth of the matter is – and check our past coverage on the issue, neither side was ever ready!!!!  German led Brussels are totally responsible for this mess and all mess in Europe; end of the story…
  4. At the other side of the Atlantic, both North and South, things also get worse. CAUTION… Venezuela now “sides” with Iran for business – oil, and the USA is furious… Who will cry this time for Argentina and how Brazil might witness even a public unrest enfolding… How will Bolsonaro tackle and then control same…
  5. Africa still the same… Expect mess there…
  6. Brace for the coming storm in Western Australia!!!!
  7. China is under attack from the USA – mainly because of the Coronavirus, which has caused too many casualties as the Americans blame the Chinese for methods used by the Soviets, like the one in the Chernobyl nuclear disaster when they did not advise the World on time… China also might end up in not importing minerals so it supports domestic mines…
  8. Japan as always ready to defend its economic interests…

Coronavirus will make it far worse this year and wait to see and read at the end of December 2020 the results. As we have said last year and remind you a month ago: 2020 is going to be the Year of Reckoning; 2021 too will be another year when Bankruptcies will reach new heights. Coronavirus proves how morons the politicians who govern us are when they cannot agree on Health Policies and methods to tackle this pandemic…

Education is also a sector severely hit… CAUTION as this might trigger unwanted situations…

All change please! We are running out of time and money, unless we “borrow time” and “print money”…

Have a nice evening as well as weekend – it’s a long weekend in the UK given the Bank Holiday and in the USA Memorial Day weekend; remain on guard from actions emanating from Pirates, Terrorists, Criminals and any Business Hooligans whatsoever wherever you are on Planet Ocean.  Once again a big THANK YOU to all who really care for all humans – Doctors, Nurses, Seafarers et al during this Coronavirus disaster!! Do please invest in Hospitals including Equipment, Doctors, Nurses and any useful means to avoid further disasters! Become more disciplined and care for the Environment too.

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