Home MarketsChartering Volatile Markets amid explosive Geopolitics and an unpredictable Coronavirus projection…

Volatile Markets amid explosive Geopolitics and an unpredictable Coronavirus projection…

John Faraclas

The BDI (Baltic Dry Index) ended down 38 points since yesterday and now reads 1,754 following a very volatile week. Same though was up 148 points since last Friday the 8th of January when it stood at 1,606 points. Breaking the 1,700 and 1,800 points thresholds is one thing, maintaining same yet another. Geopolitically we are all focused in the USA’s change of guard and what that means for all on Planet Ocean and mainly for shipping. Coronavirus will put humanity to a big test with unpredictable results. No one really knows what to expect… John Faraclas daily and weekly recap:

A good weekly start with the BDI at 1,761 – plus 155 points (11/01) raised the stakes on Tuesday when we saw another 88 points being added reaching 1,849… and surpassing the 1,800 points threshold, thereafter the BDI lost steam clinching seven points on Wednesday (13/01) and standing at 1,856 points. Thursday blues with 64 points being lost as well as the 1,800 points threshold; down at 1,792 was obvious the closing on Friday above at 1,754…

All this rise and fall was thanks to the Capes’ BCI!  On Monday 11/01, the BCI stood at 2,955 and plus 407 points breaking through four thresholds: 2,600, 2,700, 2,800 and 2,900! On Tuesday 12/01 we witnessed another triple digit rise of 231 points bringing the BCI up to 3,186 points surpassing the 3,000 point threshold. Thereafter, although on the rise, losing steam eight points were added reaching 3,194 points… Yesterday the uncertainty and loss of steam were evident “supporting” volatility and the loss of 182 points is a reality approaching the 3,000-point threshold – 3,012… The end result was another triple digit loss (119) and lose of the 3,000 points. At 2,893 points though still breaths, but… plummeting is on the way…

The Panamaxes’ BPI was down two points at 1,606 since yesterday but up 57 since last Friday the 8 Jan when it stood at 1,559 losing the 1,600-point threshold. For the record: 1,618 – 27 14/01, 1,645 on 13/01 as well as on 12/01 when it gained 25 and 1,620 on 11/01 when same gained 61…

The Supras’ BSI was up six points at 1,086 a continuous rise given the 1,029 points of last week – a good plus 57 points!!!! Note this modest and continuous rise: 1,039 on 11/01 – plus ten, 1,055 on 12/01 – plus 16, 1,067 on 13/01 – plus 12, and 1,080 yesterday 14/01 – plus 13!

Strangely enough the Handies’ BHSI experienced hiccups; despite the plus two points today reaching the 653 point mark the entire week wasn’t that good compared with all other sizes. Last week’s (08/01) closing at 656 and its minus three points was the “preamble” of its fall and stagnation; 653 on 11/01 – minus four, 650 on 12/01 – minus two, stuck on 13/01 on 650 and plus one yesterday 14/01 at 651…

All in all an uncertain volatile rollercoaster Dry Market and there is more to come…. CAUTION as 2021 does not look that of a promising year unless we see a miracle…

Uneasy situ with the Wets… The last published BDTI (Dirties) and BCTI (Cleans) stood at 493 – minus three and 465 – plus nine points respectively. On a weekly basis the Dirties were down 27 points since last Friday’s (08/01) 520 points losing the 500 points thresholds. All the week was on a falling mode… 511 – minus nine on 11/1, 505 – minus six on 12/01, 500 –minus five on 13/01, and 496 – minus four yesterday 14/01. The Cleans  did better; 18 points plus from 447 on 08/01… 445 minus two on 11/0, 441 – minus four on 12/01, 450 – plus nine on 13/01 and 456  – plus six yesterday 14/01. C A U T I O N  overall should be observed!

The WTI stood up at US$ 53.73 – plus 94 cents since yesterday and plus US$ 2.83 since the 8th of January when same stood at US$ 50.93. Too high and dangerous but feel same will fall a bit as otherwise it will upset 7.7 billion people on Planet Ocean.

On the Geopolitical front all eyes are in Washington, the capital of the super power which, following the events on Epiphany- when mobsters stormed in the Capitol with five dead,  is in a state of alert with troops mainly from the National Guard observing security in and around the Capitol grounds. Same applies for all 50 states’ Capitols fearing troubles from outgoing president Donald Trump supporters. Despicable… We believe until and during the 20th of January 2021, the day Joe Biden sworns-in as the 46th president of the United States of America, nothing will happen. Game over; but the revelations to come will be, I can assure you, a big devastation… Too many skeletons in outgoing President Donald Trump’s cupboard. As we have already said: somebody is calling a fast one against the American people… Tough but true… Did I hear you say impeachment? Well… Will he seat in the dock? Evidence will tell… Pity… We sincerely hope president-elect Joe Biden and his new administration after entering the Oval Office to get together all the American people… It is just five days away… God Save America!

MIGRANTS continue to bother us all all over Planet Ocean. CAUTION! Do not underestimate the MIGRANTS issue…

The faulty line from Gib to Afghanistan and from the Caucuses to the Horn of Africa and its ten hot spots will bother us for the foreseeable future. Turkey, and its infamous warmonger backers, is trying to rock Peace in the entire region which might go soon up in flames following the worse conflagration the World has ever seen… CAUTION. The Balkans, Central and East Med including the Aegean will be the major theatre of War followed by the Middle East. A political and Religious and Ideological War… The built up continues. Ultra CAUTION should be observed.

BREXIT causes too many issues and the EU is in the brink of more –EXITs…

China and the USA still at loggerheads not just in South China Sea but also beyond and China will soon test Taiwan and its allies – the USA will respond though in a multiple of ways…

Putin’s Russia is testing the West’s resolve and defences beyond the norm…

Central and South Latin America still in a mess…

Africa will soon become a dangerous place… unless the USA interferes…

Coronavirus “thrives” as there is not any coherent plan whatsoever in place. Under the circumstances, only an Army deployment can save the day and accelerate Vaccinations although I guess we haven’t got enough Vaccines… Expect a Vaccine scandal… Watch this space… Add Law and Order issues… Mutations will cause issues… Once again we call for Discipline – by the citizens and Responsibility – by the politicians… Don’t rule out civil upturns… all over Planet Ocean…

Did I hear you say Recession… well, excuse my French, but we are deep in the shit…

Have a nice evening and weekend and continue to remain on guard from actions emanating from Pirates, Terrorists, Criminals and any Business Hooligans whatsoever wherever you are on Planet Ocean.  Once again a big THANK YOU to all who really care for all humans – Doctors, Nurses, Seafarers, Dockers, Port Authorities et al during this Coronavirus disaster!! We repeat: Do please invest in Hospitals including Equipment, Doctors, Nurses and any useful means to avoid further disasters! Become more disciplined and care for the Environment too. Lastly: Education and Training for all to be able to tackle these disasters. Let us work collectively together and NOT opt for a fistful of Dollars to restart the already collapsed global economy… which is in red US$ 300 (threehundred) trillion…

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