Home HRAirline Industry Caution for the Dry and Wet Markets as well as turbulent Geopolitics whilst Covid resurfaces dangerously

Caution for the Dry and Wet Markets as well as turbulent Geopolitics whilst Covid resurfaces dangerously

by admin
John Faraclas

The BDI (Baltic Dry Index) fell six points since yesterday and now stands at 2,067; on a weekly basis the fall was proportionally high as 147 points were lost – from 2,214 on 01/07 and 253 four weeks ago on 10/06 when same stood at 2,320 points just as Posidonia 2022 curtain fall… Still mixed feelings with the Wets. Not much of a change since our midweek report… but a downwards change… As for Geopolitics, disasters all over Planet Ocean begin to enfold. Covid resurfaces given the premature political greediness for financial gains by the business hooligans. John Faraclas’ brief daily, weekly market and geopolitics recap:

The BDI not only fell but lost two important thresholds, that of the 2,100 and 2,200 points and it is dangerously approaching the red line, that of 2,000 points; CAUTION!

The Capes’ BCI was on a “rise” and ended up at 2,270 points, up 65 since yesterday but 111 down since last Friday the 01/07 – from 2,381 losing the 2,300 points threshold…

The Panamaxes, our favourable size – both standard and post-Panamax ones, lost 55 points since yesterday and nowthe BPI reads 2,223; on a weekly basis there was a considerable fall in the “tune” of 254 points – down from 2,477 with the loss of both the 2,400 and 2,300 points threshold.

Supras’ BSI was down 40 points and now read 2,163 points. On a weekly basis, the BSI was down 127 points losing the 2,200 points threshold…

Lastly, the Handies’ BHSI were also down losing 15 points and reading 1,185 losing also the 1,200 points threshold from last week when it stood at 1,276 points – down 91!

Therefore, all in all a downwards Dry Market; it is going to be an interesting summer given the energy mess due to the despicable war in Ukraine – watch this space!

The Wets still with mixed feelings; the last published BDTI (Dirties) and BCTI (Cleans) stood at 1,333 – up 47 and 1,406 down 19 points respectively. On a weekly basis the Dirties were up 109 surpassing the 1,300 points threshold and the Cleans were 145 points down from 1,551… Very strange situation…

The WTI was up US$ 2.06 since yesterday and now reads US$104.79; on a weekly basis, same was down US$ 3.64 – from US$ 108.43 on 01/07. Worth noting that exactly a month ago the WTI stood at US$ 122.11 and that is a US4 17.32 with today’s level of US$ 104.79! Interestingly we saw the WTI “dive” on 5 and 6 July below the US$ 100 mark at US$ 99.5 and 98.53 respectively – first falls in a month’s time… Expect asymmetrical surprises anytime…

All in all the Energy issue – of all kinds of energy, will create an unprecedented situ. Expect energy stoppages and cuts given the situ in Ukraine. President Putin will do whatever it takes, but it is not every day St. Vladimir’s Day…

Recession and Inflation continue to rise and politicians must make or break… Soon we will be in totally uncharted waters. As we mention every time in all our reports, the colossal debt of US$ 400 (fourhundred) trillion, is the stumbling block in correcting this situation… Yet, there is a way once our society brings to the power of governance leaders and not puppets… You dead well know what I mean…

On the Geopolitical front:

The war in Ukraine continues and in my humble view, there is no end in sight unless both combatants seat down and sincerely make Peace. Same applies for all those forces encouraging the continuation of this despicable massacre – applies for both sides…  Moreover, the collateral damage in this instance is severe and expect total mess and disorder if things continue with all these issues all over Planet Ocean, particularly the energy jargon… Rebuilding discussions have already begun and we estimate as things stand now US$ 1 (one) trillion are needed. If the war continues, we might witness three to four trillion; add the collateral damage… not to mention if same spreads involving other nations. Our famous Lisbon to Afghanistan and from the Caucuses faulty line now gets worse… Just sat down and count what is happening right now in this region and you will get the message… By the way: do sanctions work as …planned?

Next main issue is Turkiye’s president errating and provocative as well as blackmailing policy, which will, as numerous time stated herein and in other media, destabilise Central, East Med and Black Sea, the Balkans and parts of the Middle East. Watch this space!

Mind the Middle East too…

China also flexes its muscles in the entire Pacific Basin and maintains a close relationship with the Kremlin despite the commercial support of the entire Western World sawn over the last thirty years. South China Sea and Taiwan issue will soon come to the fore.

The fatal attack on Japan’s longest serving Prime Minister, particularly post WWII at Nara will be remembered for ever. Shinzo Abe a man of our generation saved Japan with his Abenomics! Blessed!

The midweek fall of Boris Johnson was, after all, expected despite scoring some aces and winning some games, sets but lost the match. His overall performance should be in all textbooks for all politicians particularly for those leading superpowers to learn from his mistakes and style of governance… There would be more to follow. Boris Johnson was a prime minister in his own right. Ukraine did not save him… He simply rocked the boat.  There was betrayal too… Once should remember: Don’t overstay your welcome! MOREOVER, what is next? Indeed there is a chaotic situation and wonder what the leadership contest will bring up… Watch this space!

In Africa, watch-out where protests will lead over rising of cost of living… In Nigeria, the Jihadists attack in a prison in Abuja must be taken seriously of what might happened there… Things in Sudan are not that good either…

In South America, we focus on Argentina… Financial mess with more scandals lead Martin Guzman, the Argentinean Minister of Economy resign… No tears for Argentina…

Finally the European Union given the Ukrainian mess as well as the economic collapse MUST get its act together and ensure we all have food and energy available… otherwise why pay all these MEP’s whose KPI’s are down to zero…

By the way, who is protecting the Environment…? END the polluting war in Ukraine and save the Black Sea…

Who will protect us from Covid’s reinfections? Why abandon the safety protocols and in particular the Masks, but insist and order that whoever enters a hospital or Medical Centre MUST wear a Mask, eh? Expect a messy summer not to say Autumn…

The Airline Industry is in tatters with many cancellations and very expensive tickets… Luck of personnel due to Covid is evident.

As we mentioned above health and social issues, what is the real story on Abortions following the… “cliché”  ‘Roe v. Wade overturned’, eh?

A harsh reminder to all: per mare per terra, we need leaders, real leaders to run Planet Ocean’s affairs and to this effect most of our lectures in Academia are focused on Leadership!

Finally, we were once again honoured AND privileged to appear on TV and express our views on current world affairs. Viewers can watch same here below:

Have a nice evening and weekend but continue to remain on guard from actions emanating from Pirates, Terrorists, Criminals and any Business Hooligans whatsoever wherever you are on Planet Ocean.  Once again a big THANK YOU to all who really care for all humans – Doctors, Nurses, Seafarers, Dockers, Port Authorities et al during this Coronavirus disaster!! We repeat: Do please invest in Hospitals including Equipment, Doctors, Nurses and any useful means to avoid further disasters! Become more disciplined and care for the Environment too. As for the mess in Ukraine, you have not seen anything yet as well as its spread… Lastly: Education and Training for all to be able to tackle these disasters. Let us work collectively together and NOT opt for a fistful of Dollars to restart the already collapsed global economy… which is now approaching the US$ 400 (four hundred) trillion debt…

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