- Q4 EPS 9% ahead of expectations
- AI revenue expected to grow 55-59% annually out to 2029
- 2026 capex expected to grow 32%, with more to follow
Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst, Hargreaves Lansdown:
“The world’s largest chipmaker just sent a clear message: the AI boom is nowhere near done. TSMC delivered a record quarter, but the real story lies in its outlook. Management sees AI demand growing at an eye-popping 55–59% annually through 2029, and cloud giants are already knocking on its door to offer any help they can to secure future capacity. That confidence is backed by action – TSMC is pulling forward fab build-outs in Taiwan and the US, accelerating its Arizona expansion, and buying extra land for advanced packaging.
This is a clear signal. TSMC is typically cautious on capacity given the chip industry’s boom-and-bust cycles, so this aggressive build-out suggests they see a durable runway for AI demand stretching well into the next decade.
This matters far beyond TSMC. The 32% growth in capex planned for 2026, along with a signal of more to come, is a green light for the entire AI infrastructure trade. Chipmakers like Nvidia and AMD remain at the forefront, but the read-across is even stronger for semiconductor equipment names. ASML (which makes advanced equipment to kit out TSMC’s chip fabs) looks set to be the earliest and potentially biggest winner from a multi-year capex surge. In short, these results aren’t just good for TSMC – they’re a roadmap for where the next leg of AI investment is headed.”
