John Faraclas
Our forty-fourth weekly recapitulation of the markets and world geopolitics affecting same, tonight Friday the 14th of November 2014 with John Faraclas of AllAboutShipping in London, re-confirms once again our last week’s title: “The Shipping Markets: After … “euphoria”, stagnation, or correction…?” Our prognosis continues to be verbatim 100 centum correct! Any objections?
There will be many upheavals in the industry with bad shipping portfolios, shipping scams and many bankruptcies of all kinds. Be prepared. Very very few will make it and stay in the black. We have warned you on this coming new crisis which is also being affected by many more factors.
The Geopolitics and new world order in business too, will continue to affect the markets. The politicians and the business hooligans will continue to distort the markets to the worse extent and I guess, if we believe in neo-liberalism and a really free transparent economy, we must revolt here and now – peacefully of course, before it’s too late, and get rid of all these crook morons.
The BDI closed down eight points since yesterday Thursday the 13th of November at 1, 256 points which is minus 171 points since last week’s 1, 437 points. This is 991 points down from last December’s closing at 2, 247 points, in other words we lag behind a mere 44.12 centum! Now there is no way to see the market …taking off unless the drums of war have their say; you bet? Forget overcapacity as an excuse to the bad dry markets in particular, but look to eco times two for the ecological and economical ships one has to run; it is to the benefit of all and the environment.
- The BCI closed down 41 points since yesterday at 2, 931 points which is 730 points down since last week’s closing at 3, 661 points. Again, volatility at its best, unsustainable capers-market too!
- The BPI was down 23 points since yesterday at 1, 089 points, which is also a minus 99 points since last week’s closing at 1, 183 points! We do believe in this size, but the developments in Panama due to the delay of opening the wider Panama Canal locks and other designs in the area might cause hiccups; we shall see…
- The BSI was up 2 points since yesterday at 875 points, which on the other hand is six points down since last week’s 881 points.
- The BHSI was down one point since yesterday at 450 points which is minus four points since last week’s 454 points. Caution here too…as these last two categories/sizes mostly suffer from the volatility and unsustainability of the Capers and Panamaxes!
The wets on the other hand continued to be “different”:
- The dirties and its respective index, the BDTI was up 22 points since the last closing/reporting, reaching the 865 points, which is 32 points up since last week’s 833 points!
- The cleans with their respective BCTI closed up three points since the last closing at 735, which is 13 points up since last week’s 722 points; so the wets once again on an upwards trend… A long way though to go… Climate and climate change, might help…
- On the World Stage now:
The Ebola saga continues to make waves in the news world-wide and Africa is once again, post-AIDS in the eye of the health cyclone! Many well known companies and organisations from the shipping industry too, are doing their best for support and combat the issue with charitable and educational/training actions. A crucial situation with a virus that wants to spread. Be on guard!
Ukraine: The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and its monitors is being accused by Russia as being biased and pro-Ukraine. The fragile ceasefire might break at any time. Ukraine, part of the 300-year old Eastern Issue, might trigger unpleasant developments which, as we see it will greatly affect a 30 centum of Global Maritime Transport. We bet on this!
The Middle East: Will the assistance of yet another US coalition smash ISIS, or we are heading for many more complications in an area of at least one billion people?
Libya: The country is in a civil war with the two T cities (Tobruk and Tripoli) having two parliaments and outside nations from the Arab/Muslim and Isis world fighting their proxy war, together with “others” in the region and “overseas”… Now we wait for stage four…as gangs and militias are hooked-on to gain from oil… Nice things eh! Where are the architects who toppled Gadhafi to see that they spectacularly failed in the post-Gadhafi period. Any designs that we might hear are simply nonsense! There should have been a law an order once he was finished off. Be on guard there. A civil war is a civil war and, for your guidance, same has just begun… We can only advert same and its wider consequences and repercussions if we act swiftly and have the Military finish the job properly!
Europe: The German economy has “avoided” recession, but the situation is still critical. A leader must be found to lead Europe in these turbulent times, as the mighty continent is amid the designs of the super power – that is the US, Putin’s Russia, the Chinese commercial and trade onslaught and issues from within. Many populist politicians eagerly wait t be elected in many European nations, but the end result as always count. Greece will give/produce tremors which will be incalculable if the messy austerity and destruction of the Greek People doesn’t end here and now. The coalition Government and the opposition might flock together or elements from two or three parties will form another puppet moppet show to govern Greece, milk the Greek public, so the lenders get their money back…
Immigration issues from within the EU nations are to the fore; Turkey violates the European Union’s waters vis-a-vis the oil and gas exploration in the Cypriot EEZ and it remains to be seen for whom the bells tool… Europe is technically bankrupt and will continue to be like that, unless the Germans understand that their policy will lead to an asymmetrical counter attack from within and others…
Ah! The most important one: Unless we see all those who embezzled money and are mainly involved in Greek scandals – which they set up, unless we have a total recall on transparency, we are then for sure going earlier than anticipated to fight the Third World War. The celebrations of the Great War’s Anniversary should make us think twice and after Word War II, logic and pragmatism should prevail.
In the Far East now: Will the Hong Kong students make it to Beijing for talks there? How will the Chinese system reacts? China in tatters. The growth expected and promoted lost its fuel… Caution, caution, caution. Caution as many Chinese investments abroad will bring global hiccups… Japan will raise the stakes in the region for other reasons too. Mind the unorthodox actions from all nations in the South China Sea and beyond.
Will the G20 summit over the weekend in Brisbane produce anything to improve the world’s worse economic and environmental state? Mind me, sharing our view with you brings me in front of a paradox and oxymoron together: The Share of World Population with China at 19% India 18% EU 9% and the US at 4%, is in contrast and without a correlation with the Share of World Carbon Emissions, as China has 26% India 6% EU 13% and the US 16%. Any thoughts?
The Cadwallader’s event by the London Shipping Law Centre is coming up on the 25th of November; hope you managed to get a seat!
Many events take place world-wide, but London still call the shots in the Maritime world! We will keep you closely posted, particularly with the many pre-Xmas and other events! We will also keep you posted on the IMO candidacy affair; watch this space!
The twenty-first tip for your extended summer holidays, thanks to climate change, is the island of Lampedusa in south central Mediterranean. Indeed, this tiny Italian island promises a great time for those looking for this extra excitement and news…
Enjoy the weekend. You can log on here below to watch the live video which strangely enough ended the moment we were announcing the holiday tip, Lampedusa. Otherwise all said in the video:
