John Faraclas
We could have won any bet whatsoever had we opened a fortune teller’s company….err market prognosis company, a betting office if you like, given the latest market sky-fall…now and many years ago! We could have been easily billionaires! Any objection?
Our forty-sixth weekly recapitulation of the markets and world geopolitics affecting same, tonight Friday the 28th of November 2014 with John Faraclas of AllAboutShipping in London, re-confirms once again our last week’s title: “Messy shipping markets and world politics in shambles” and all previous market prognosis!
- The BDI closed earlier this afternoon down 34 points since yesterday Thursday the 27th of November at 1, 153 points, that’s a 171 points drop since last week’s 1, 324 points! This is also a 1, 094 points drop since last December’s 2, 247 points or 48.71% for those wanting to see accuracy in percentages – no way to reach the figure of December 2013.
- The BCI closed down 196 points since yesterday at 2, 151 points and 937 points down since last week’s 3, 088 points. You can see the volatile environment at its best!
- The BPI was up 21 points at 1, 120 which is a plus of 65 points since last weeks 1, 055.The size we believe in proved that can be trusted… No major ups and downs.
- The BSI was up two points at 986 which is also a plus of 44 points since last week’s 942 points.-
- The BHSI was up four points since yesterday at 491 points which is also a 29 points plus since last week’s 462 points.
So all in all a downward market proving once again how last year’s estimations by the gurus of the industry et al for a …“buoyant” and “sustainable” market failed!
The wets on the other hand continued to be “different” even amongst them..:
- The dirties and its respective index, the BDTI was down 46 points since the last closing/reporting at 893, which is a fall of 80 points since last week’s 973 points.
- The cleans with their respective BCTI closed up 13 points at 812 and 60 points up since last week’s 752. Mixed feelings…
The price of oil was slashed below the US$ 70 mark and it remains to be seen how the combatants of OPEC and non-OPEC will react. Remind you the price of oil was abut to go over the US$ 150 mark in 2008… Remind you also that the BDI was above the 11, 700 points in mid 2008 and now… Remember there is more cargo to be carried for the needs of the world trade and global population is the ingredient for business but… we are making it a messy one.
Despite all the above, remind you that this is the best time to enter the shipping industry, buy new ships or good second hand ones at very favourable prices, but have the employment in your sleeve…
The Funds, appropriately governed by expert shipping consultants will fill the gap the shipping banks and institutions left and can see their investors’ money bring capital gains. Remember, it’s all down to bad management and information on how to tackle this market.
On the World stage now:
- The Ebola saga becomes more serious with president Hollande of France visiting Guinea and pledging France’s duty and support to combat this outbreak, Naomi Campbell’s Ebola pop-up campaign doing its best, whilst the virus makes waves…. Caution!
- Ukraine: Too much at stake. Can Volodymyr Hroysmann do the trick? Wonder! Putin knows how to hold a firm grip alike all Russian and former Soviet leaders did on Ukraine and goes strides to see what Turkey’s Erdogan can offer. Too complicated geopolitics here, I mean there, given the Russian support to Syria and Turkish distancing from the Assad regime seeing same as its biggest south-eastern enemy… Pope Francis visits Turkey and it remains to be seen what will be this visit’s outcome…
- The Middle East: proving to be in a big mess with ISIS still holding on despite the counter attack from its opponents. The American laid counter attack involving France, the UK and others, must intensify and give a swift victory asap! We insist: smash them by all means or else. Indeed the military can do it! Whether 31, 500 fighters or 200, 000 to 300, 000, ISIS can be defeated, but one needs to see a coherent policy here by all – at least in the way the display ISIS etc. etc., , but firstly many issues have to be solved and resolved as vested interests in the region shouldn’t be exercised versus an explosion of an ISIS lead region if we don’t act swiftly.
- Libya: The mess continues in what I consider a failed state. ; no further statement on this. Never forget the latest happening in the Tripoli’s restaurant with a migrant worker defiling food…
- Europe: The German Budget, the first since 1969 is balanced; a triumph for Frau Merkel? A warning for all? We shall see…
- Africa in general remains mysterious and wonder how its one billion people will cope with the much needed change there..
- Australia and Oceania in general is becoming the focal point of development… and as for the..
- Americas, oh well another new era begins…
Immigration must be tackled and there is a way. Soft politics on this is counterproductive. The UK’s Prime Minister David Cameron is rightly very worried on the migrants issue asking his European counterparts to support him and conversely Europe itself on his “reasonable” proposals for far-reaching curbs on welfare benefits for migrants. Mind me, after the fall of the Iron Curtain, the EU-Europeanisation/westernisation of… Eastern Europe, the NATOISM et al, Europe is in a total mess. Wonder what might have happened if things remained as they were… On another tone, illegal immigrants are still entering and or trying to entre from the sea borders of Europe, becoming a habit… and causing more problems for all… A tip for all fighting over the immigrants issue: Why we the Europeans counter to the threat from the Far East appropriately use all those branded as illegal immigrants for furthering our export output and solve the unemployment issue which tarnishes our societies with incalculable repercurrsions; Greece’s for example runs 50 centum to the young generation and comes down close to a single figure of region 5 centum in Germany…
Moldova’s Sunday’s election could be critical too, widening the troubled mighty continent…
Greece was paralysed after months with a general strike; a message for the ruling coalition? Wonder… We have expressed our view and reiterate same: New breed must enter Greece’s 300-strong parliament, completely cut off from the past. An interim Unity Government from the Aristos to prepare the country both for its really savour path and then for an election of a new government and a new head of state. The court cases continue with all those who embezzled money, power and anything you can imagine. It became a first class occupation, but this is mainly thanks to the foreign factor and its conglomerates who wanted to win business at all costs. You need two in a tango, eh! As for the populist opposition and its leading SYRIZA, oh well, what a palaver…
- In the Far East now: China, a country to watch in all fronts: environment, corruption, slow down of development indices, the lot. If Chine slides further, be prepared for the inevitable. It is to the benefit of all, without underestimating their own economies to stabilize the Chinese one or… I Japan the brothels issue is once again engulfing the country of the rising sun involving also victims from China and Korea… Where one does makes it or breaks it? Enough!
- The Cadwallader’s event by the London Shipping Law Centre was a success, as well as the 14th Navigator’s conference in Athens. Sevan’s cylindrical high technology in FLNG by Lars Odeskaug organised by London’s RINA branch was the best of its kind! Gear up now for one more London Shipping Law Centre event on: “Can electronic Data provide conclusive evidence in investigations?” which takes place on Monday the 8th of December at Clyde & Co’s auditorium…
- The Festive season is coming up and let’s enjoy same. After all, we all had a hard time and need a change to face the challenges of yet another bad year to come. Be optimistic and think positive, but don’t count your eggs before they are thatched. The ancient Greek Menandros had a saying, a maxim if you like: “When the oak tree falls, everyone cuts wood”; try to interpret this with the World economy next year and for the next five years to come… not to say the next ten years to come! A good “Black Friday” today and shopping-wise all did well…
The twenty-third tip for your extended… summer holidays, and thanks to climate change, is the British capital! Yes a nice break for all during the festive season for shopping et al to all intents and purposes!
Enjoy the weekend. You can log on here below to watch the live video:
