Dr. Platon Monokroussos, Chief Market Economist, Deputy General Manager, Eurobank Ergasias S.A
HIGHLIGHTS
WORLD ECONOMIC & MARKET DEVELOPMENTS
GLOBAL MARKETS: Major Asian bourses edged lower on Tuesday and major European equity indices fell earlier today, with energy-related shares leading the losses on profit-taking after a decline in crude oil prices yesterday. Renewed concerns over China’s economic outlook also weighed. In FX markets, reduced expectations of an imminent fed funds rate hike weighed on the US dollar. Focus today is on the Fed’s James Bullard, who will give a speech at the annual meeting of the National Association for Business Economics in Washington, while, on the data front, the German ZEW survey for October will likely lure investors’ attention.
GREECE: The Greek Government submitted to Parliament late on Monday the bill containing the first set of fiscal and structural measures that will permit the disbursement of ca €2.0bn from the first installment of €26.0bn of the €86.0bn loan agreed in August 2015 under the Third Economic Adjustment Programme for Greece. The bill is expected to be voted late on Friday 17 October 2015.
SOUTH EASTERN EUROPE
ROMANIA: CPI edged up to +0.3%MoM/-1.7%YoY in September from -0.5%MoM/-1.9%YoY in August, coming in better than the market’s median forecast and supporting our view that inflation will most likely to stay below the central bank target range (2.5%±1%) until at least the second half of 2016, if not early 2017, and that May’s 25bps cut in the key policy rate to 1.75% is most probably the last under the current easing cycle.
SERBIA: Consumer inflation eased to 1.4%YoY in September from a 9-month peak of 2.1%YoY registered a month earlier, pulling further below the NBS target band of 4+/-1.5% and strengthening the case for another 50bps rate cut to 4.50% as soon as this week.
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Daily Overview October 13 2015
