Global Economy and shipping markets drop further; geopolitics in a mess!

John N. Faraclas

Our forty-second weekly recapitulation of the shipping markets, their respective main indices and world geopolitics affecting same in 2015 and beyond, tonight Friday the 16th of October 2015, with John Faraclas of AllAboutShipping in London.

• The BDI, the Baltic Dry Index, closed down 12 points since yesterday Thursday the 15th of October at 754, which is 55 points down since last week’s 809 points. That’s far below the December 2013 closing of 2, 274 points, a difference of 1, 520 points! Our predictions continue verbatim to be more than accurate, despite what the gurus and analysts have said…!
• The BCI was down 50 points at 1, 318 points which is 231 points down since last week’s 1, 549 points; the volatile “size” makes waves…
• The BPI was 20 points down at 722, which is 21 points up since last week’s 701… The only size maintaining a bit of sustainability…
• The BSI was three points down since yesterday at 658 which is 33 points down from last week’s closing of 691 points, and,
• The BHSI was also down, but just two points, at 376 which is four points down since last week’s 380 points. – Again, what the gurus and the analysts have to say…?
• The wets now and the last published indices: Dirties and its BDTI index was just one point up at 772 points and 18 points down since last Friday’s closing of 790 points,
• The Cleans and its respective BCTI was down four points at 477 which is 29 points down since last week’s 506 points…
• The price of oil has fallen since last week and now trades close to US$ 47…, volatility and geopolitics will soon count a lot in affecting the price of the barrel; be on guard, either way, to avoid nasty surprises! Shale is the buzz word and what if Russia cuts or even curbs its gas supplies to Europe?
• Shipfinancing gets too diffcult with new kids in the block and shipping will be only “shipping for the very very very few”!  Add the Shipbulding industry blues and see where we are heading…
• Despite all the above in the Markets and the geopolitics here below, the Greek Shippowners still lead the tables with respect the percentage of owned vessels, despite a drop in statistics. Isn’t time the entire Greek political world see the reason behind this unrivalled Greek Shipping Success!

The Geopolitics front continues in a total mess:

• The Migrants issue once again dominates the news; the drama continues to enfold and the Europeans are in a total mess. On top of everything else they don’t understand how to handle Turkey, which indeed has a problem with three million migrants, but this is not the solution given the vested interests of the “West” and others in the region and also to support Turkey when everybody knows that there is a hidden Turkish agenda… Allowing the Turks to move without a visa in Europe will bring Europe to a standstill and promising an entry to the European Union, well this is more than blah blah blah… It is not, repeat NOT the issue of just the war-torn Syria migrants, refugees whatever they call these poor people; how about Afghanistan and Afghans coming over from Turkey? How about Africans too from Eritrea …Somalis…Pakistanis… Come on, cut the bullshit – excuse my French… How one interprets the continuous violation of the Greek Airspace from Turkish jets and helicopters? “Pleased” to read that Europe “upgrades” FRONTEX giving a “mandate” now… Why not years before? …. Why? Let’s hope it works…
• Turkey must get its act together as the recent despicable bombings a week ago have alarmed us all. The coming snap elections next month will be detrimental for all in the region; no matter the result…
• Same fears in Israel where situation is about to explode too.
• Iran must become a nation of friendship and not one jeopardising the Middle East! We all know that Iran might strike. Iran has a history and those who know have to expect the unexpected. Having a hidden nuclear advantage might “do” the trick and then the entire region will come under Iran and the Middle East and Arab world totally changed…Others will move in and the result will be devastating…
• In Greece the troubles, the real troubles will begin. How this Government will survive with the way the reforms have to go through? More Austerity? More cuts? One in three Greeks is below the poverty line… How the Greek people will survive…? Well time will very soon tell. We are far from an honest, humane and just solution… Things will get sour!!!! We are pressing now the Alarm button. Wake up Mr. Tsipras et al before it is too late! This is a warning! Tell them straight away that the entire debt which the lenders have caused, must be written-off or else! The Greek opposition too must become more involved in running the country. I would like to see any economist or Eurozone MP who can “convince” me that the Greek debt is sustainable! Ah, by the way: There are investors for Touristic projects in Greece; but who can trust the current Greek Regime? Lastly: Catharsis here and now. Do not delay this process, as it could soon be another type of Catharsis for those who have on purpose delayed same… If things continue to be nasty for the Greek people, the current coalition government will fall by say the end of April 2016, in September/October 2016 the Greek people will demand a total Grexit with incalculable repercurrsions for the entire Balkans and Eastern Med, as the NATO pact will also look diabolical to them; this is an hypothesis, but you never ever know… Christmas 2016 if things don’t change will be very different!
• In Germany and other European nations the Migrants issue continue to cause more problems! Closing of frontiers, changes and damages in social cohetion , racism and other problems have already surfaced.
• In Ukraine nobody accepts responsibility for downing the MH17 flight. Shame for all embattled groups! Otherwise the war is still on, and given Putin’s tough strategy in Syria and the wider Middle Eastern region something not since 1900, Ukrainians really hold their breath… (As we stated last week and continue to repeat now). President Obama must respond too…
• China: the big downturn continues. Caution!
• The Islamic State issue needs a thorough investigative policy on how to terminate its fighters. Russia continues getting heavily involved and expects more troubles there which will fuel a massive Migrants exodus!
• See you at the CSR event on the 3rdof November…Do please check our UPCOMING and other events!
• The Marine Money’s 17th Annual Greek Shipfinance Forum on the 14th of October was yet another great event!
• The 40th anniversary of Intermodal Europe takes place in Hamburg Messe on the 17-19 November; don’t miss it!
• The Annual WISTA event organised by WISTA-Turkey went smooth and the Collectiveness of the WISTA-Hellas ladies earned them the Personality Award for 2015! Now the US ladies have the ball in their court at the other side of the Atlantic, so gear up for a long haul trip; already plans are examined!
• Finally, we continue to invite the world visiting Greece and its Islands; that will counter as a plus to the troubles Greece and its people are going through. Greece is for all seasons! We will also continue to repeat the fact that the Turkish Government by allowing the traffickers to move the migrants to the Greek Islands not only spoils Greece’s tourism but will eventually create the worst explosion in the East Med… Let’s see what Europe does to Turkey and relax their leaders so we all avoid the big clash! Try Thasos and Samothrace islands in Northern Aegean! Simply lovely! Go hunting there is an experience! Otherwise, do try Cape Town where the weather is more than fine; South Africa is a great place this time of the year!! There will be plentiful to see soon in less than a month at the World Travel Market in London’s Excel, so hold …your breath!

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