Dr. Platon Monokroussos, Chief Market Economist, Deputy General Manager, Eurobank Ergasias S.A
HIGHLIGHTS
WORLD ECONOMIC & MARKET DEVELOPMENTS
GLOBAL MARKETS: Euro area inflation re-entered into negative territory in February supporting market expectations for further monetary policy stimulus by the ECB on March 10th. Against this background, euro area equity markets and German government bonds were firmer in early trade on Tuesday while the EUR came under renewed pressure.
GREECE: The EuroWorking Group that convened yesterday failed to set a date on the return of the ECB/IMF/EC/IMF mission heads to Athens to resume discussions with the Greek authorities in the context of the 1st programme review. Reportedly, a decision on the exact timing of the mission heads’ return will likely be reached at the Mach 7th Eurogroup after assessing how close all involved parts are on reaching a staff level agreement on the required conditionality. On the data front, according to provisional national accounts data that were released by the Hellenic statistical authority (EL.STAT.) yesterday, Q4 2015 real GDP growth was revised upward to +0.1%QoQ/-0.8%YoY in seasonally adjusted terms from an initial reported estimate of -0.6%QoQ/-1.9%YoY. For the full year 2015 real GDP contracted by 0.3%, better than -0.7% previously estimated.
SOUTH EASTERN EUROPE
BULGARIA: According to the preliminary data of the Ministry of Finance, the consolidated budget surplus came at BGN961mn or 1.2% of projected GDP in the first two months of the year, compared to a budget deficit of BGN105.5 or 0.1% of GDP in the same period last year.
SERBIA: According to the latest data released by the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia, real GDP growth came in at 1.2%YoY in Q4 2015, revised marginally lower from an initial estimate of 1.3%YoY and coming in vs. the prior quarter’s 2.3%YoY reading.
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