John Faraclas
A double digit, that is 15 points since yesterday, made the main index, the BDI climb to 429! John Faraclas assesses the situation, after the Ides of March in the shipping markets…
The Capers, the most volatile of all sizes got an impressive 60 (you read correct, sixty) points plus and the BCI now stands at 270 points. The Panamaxes and the respective BPI added another 17 clocking 501, above the 500 points threshold. The Supras (BSI) and Handies (BHSI) though are stack with just one point plus, now standing at 476 and 271 points respectively.
All in all a plus market and lets see the spring… cleaning what else might bring from tomorrow; don’t count though your eggs before they are thatched! Too early, unless as we have repeatedly stated, we see the BDI above the 2, 000 points; so still market blues!
The Wets once again with mixed feelings. The last published BDTI and BCTI stood at 837 (plus 19 points) and 494 (minus two) respectively…
On both instances, one needs to team up with good partners and a good merge can produce miracles, weather the storm until 2020 and one day earn handsome capital gains when the markets peak up. You need though honest players with a direction and not business hooligans! This is the best market for good acquisitions; a total minimisation of the downside risk!
The price of oil, the WTI struggles to maintain a basis level in the region of US$ 38… The Oil business though and the fate of the Oil producers is still at stake. How many companies will remain afloat? See how many projects have been shelved and see for yourself what else is still to come. A way to measure what’s happening is the latest of the 250, 000 workers made unemployed in the sector; bad news! Expect the prices to spiral downwards; only a major geopolitical event can turn the tables… On top of anything else the Energy Sector is battered with the Alternative Sources of Energy, Sail …err Shale and God knows what else…
The Boxships too have a future but with oligopolistic patterns and knowledge of what is EFE ( ecological, fast, and economic) tonnage. Add another E and see what is to have an ergonomic vessel…
LNG in its entirety is the name of the game too in the shipping industry; be it ships or propulsion substances!
On the geopolitical front we have more troubles. The steel industry, particularly in the UK is in tatters; nationalisation would do nothing. The China and Indian “syndromes” affects the markets over here too… Caution as other sectors might follow…
The Migrants issue now begins to send terrible shocks and too many issues are at stake. Just read the news and see videos all over the European Migrants Spectrum and in particular down in Greece… Not a single RWA nor a RWAD exists in Greece; we politely provoke all 300 MP’s in the Greek Parliament and of course all MP’s and MEPs in Europe. Hypocrisy at its best. Racism at its best too. Exploitation you say: also at its best. Only when you read the Order issued by the Head of the Greek Police in Greece on how to behave and the rights of the Migrants, then you will understand what goes on!
Terrorism looks ready to counter in Syria and elsewhere (Iran, Iraq, Turkey, Pakistan and in Europe) unless the coalitions there (in Syria) converge and smash the ISIS lot and others here and now. It all depends as you know on the duration and severity of the attacks by all means and all fronts we engage in for this special and much needed purpose!
The US elections promise, as we have written, many surprises.
Brazil must get its house in order; it’s the economy game and not just the game to alter the course for better days in one of the world’s most promising nations.
The Syrian saga will continue… We repeat the issue of Syria, just to make you aware of what else is coming in the region…
Turkey must get also its act together; what is to happen, will happen – see what happen in former Yugoslavia and be prepared…
Northern Africa from Ceuta to the Suez Canal becomes a risk zone – Lybia and Egypt too must maintain a common understanding, the first must make or break – a coalition for the time beeing can do; the latter must ensure an easy transition with reforms of all kinds before the mess governs and our concern of course is the Suez Canal and conversly Israel..
BREXIT and GREXIT and other exits still exist on the cards!
Tomorrow is Fools’ Day, today though we do not fool you around with the above news and info; we have warned you! You can verify this from the state of the Tourist industry; read the statistics and be brave for the coming reality!
