Global Economic & Market Outlook – Focus Notes (August 29, 2016)
Greek Q2 GDP (2nd reading): Revised slightly downwards, but still better than initially expected
The Hellenic Statistical Authority (EL.STAT.) published earlier today its revised quarterly national accounts for the 2 nd quarter of 2016 (provisional data). The data showed a small downward revision in seasonally adjusted real GDP to +0.2%/-0.9% QoQ/YoY relative to the previously reported +0.3%/-0.7% QoQ/YoY (flash estimate). This was the fourth consecutive quarter of negative year-on-year output growth, though the respective quarter-on-quarter reading was clearly better than the market’s (and our own) initial expectations. Overall, real output declined by 1.0% YoY in the first half of this year, following a 1.2% contraction in the previous semester and positive growth of 0.6% in H1 2015. As to the data breakdown for the second quarter of 2016, real private consumption growth remained in negative territory for the fourth consecutive quarter (-0.2%/-1.7% QoQ/YoY), real public consumption declined by 0.7%/2.7% QoQ/YoY and net exports exerted a negative contribution to GDP growth (exports of goods & services: -1.0%/-11.4% QoQ/YoY and imports of goods & services: -0.4%/-7.1% QoQ/YoY). Separately, gross fixed investment grew by +1.0%/+7.0%, reportedly as a result of increased spending on transport equipment, weapon systems and public construction. Finally, the implicit GDP deflator grew by 1.2%/1.5% QoQ/YoY in Q2 after recording slightly negative growth in the prior quarter (0.0%/-0.1% QoQ/YoY). This was partially a result of the new VAT hikes implemented last June.
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GLOBAL FOCUS NOTE_August 29, 2016
