John Faraclas
Another day and week of falling Dry Market and Geopolitical chaos engulfing us all; few had got the message right. John Faraclas’ weekly recap:
The BDI (Baltic Dry Index) closed down today at 946 points, down 20 since yesterday and 144 since last Friday the 9th of December – a day numerical-wise very prejudiced by the Greeks. We are amid a Shakespearean inevitability and I am sure most of you remember this inevitability from Othello’s respective passage “But this denoted a foregoing conclusion” (III.iii). Prejudice and interference there then and now interpreting same with today’s market situ has a role and a reality in force. The Fall yesterday below the 1,000-point threshold was indeed inevitable given the uncertainty, volatility and geopolitical mess. Should we add the Festive Season as an “excuse”…?
The Capers’ BCI 2014 managed to lose just ten points since yesterday and now stands at 1,048, a fraction away from yet another 1,000 point threshold, but given this size’s volatility everything can be expected; most analysts call it a “very contained ten point fall”. On a weekly basis the 527 points lost since last Friday when the BCI stood at 1,575 is too grave to bear… catastrophe, another powerful Greek word – wonder how many understand its real powerful meaning and its effects, particularly on the aftermath of any case… WE urge you all to see the incalculable catastrophe for all sectors of this Non-Cyclical Dry Market with asymmetrical spikes on a tempestuous ocean…
The Panamaxes done even worse- yesterday the BPI lost almost 100 points – 98 to be precise; today it lost 108 points bringing same down to 1,126 and 382 were lost since last week when the BPI stood just above the 1,508 points.
Losses for the Supras, both on a daily as well as on a weekly basis; eight point down today brought the BSI at 960 and on a weekly six – from 966…
Only the Handies’ BHSI avoided the …Skyfall and managed both on a daily and weekly basis to be different reading 600 – that’s plus four and 33 plus respectively since last week’s 567 points.
On the antipode the Wets with the last published BDTI (Dirties) and BCTI (Cleans) on the rise; 909 (plus 14) and 491 (plus 21) points respectively; on a weekly basis both up 20 (from 889) and 50 (from 441 points). Is it the winter in the Northern Hemisphere or what…
The price of WTI stood an hour ago at just above US$ 52,03 – on the rise which obviously increases private and state coffers but remains damaging for the masses given the worldwide recession which very few have the guts to admit!
The Container trade looks messy and let’s see Maersk’s Hamburg Sud deal if really helps the option of consolidation or spark a wider box ship confrontation. West including Europe’s box giants and Feast tigers will clash until the end to dominate intermodalism to all intents and purposes. Reefer Containerships, particularly 10,000 TEUs ones will soon be in demand. Speed, speed, speed the magic aspect, but you need to control the energy jargon…
LNG’s and LPG’s are re-asserting themselves and their respective markets; money will speak up soon…
Vessels prices are ideal for expansion in all sectors as we have stressed recently for those using the good offices of money experts. Good second hand five-year old tonnage and newbuildings. Time to see the shipyards pay the damage of the con they had set up since the beginning of the Millennium. With the urging environmental issues and more economical newbuilding are the best answer.
The Greeks continue to have the lead despite few hiccups followed by the Chinese and Japanese in both the second hand and newbuilding market of all kinds.
Caution for the shipfinancing banks; they have landed, excuse my French, in the shit… Wonder who has to pay the damage. No mercy to the flamboyant ship-finance bankers who created this havoc, a catastrophe so to speak!
Once again we reiterate the view that this is the ever buyers’ market we have ever experienced over the last fifty years!
Geopolitics is the name of the game and same affects the entire shipping every single second:
The MIGRANTS still going far worse from what we have expected! S H A M E to all involved: Politicians, Diplomats, NGO’s to name but a few…
The Syrian saga with Aleppo – for the time being making headlines for the wrong reasons and other places in the WARS-torn Syria will continue for the foreseeable future. In neighbouring Iraq too. The ISIS anathema MUST be completely smashed here and now as the more we prolong its existence for silly reasons – we can go and get them even in an unprecedented and inhumane way, and why not given the atrocities of any kinds performed by all these inhumane maniacs and their masters which ALSO must be eliminated, no matter who they are!
Turkey must be handled appropriately before it become a major liability for all; remember this!
The European Union MUST get its act together
The US and Russia at loggerheads for too many issues…
Meantime in the South China Sea, for which we have numerous times stressed that China wishes to have the upper hand, a UUV, a sea-drone so to speak checking the salinity of the water was seized by China and the Americans demand her immediate release. This is a very serious matter…
BREXIT, as said last month is gone to change the entire world business-wise… BREXIT will re-write all business and labour international laws and practices. Rest assured that NOTHING will change for the Shipping affairs in London, the World’s Administrative Capital of Shipping!
GREXIT might also come sooner than the planers have envisaged. The drama is for the Greek people who are governed by a bunch of a Muppet Puppet regime for the worse ever Theatre of the Absurd ; only Samuel Beckett, Eugène Ionesco, and Harold Pinter know how to have handled them…
More geopolitics before midnight.
Enjoy the rest of the evening, have a nice weekend and be on guard for every eventuality!
