John Faraclas
The BDI (Dry Baltic Index) closed earlier on today at 1,032 points which is 9 (nine) points up since yesterday and 99 (ninety-nine) since last Friday the 28th of July when it stood at 933 points. Geopolitics are sending a strong message that the going gets tough. The BDI is minus 1215 points since the safety level at the end of December 2013 when it stood at 2,247 points; John Faraclas’ daily and weekly recap:
The BCI following a good week with mostly triple digit plus figures, today managed just 35 plus points, now standing at 1,637 and 498 plus since last week’s 1,139 points. CAUTION as volatility might floor down the market yet again…
The Panamaxes saw the BPI up ten points at 1,153 and on a weekly basis 44 – from 1,109…
The Supras and Handies were both down; on a daily basis the BSI and the BHSI lost three and four points respectively (764 and 478). On a weekly the loss was minus 20 for the Supras – from 789 and 20 for the Handies – from 498!
So all in all it is the Capers and a bit the Panamaxes “improving” the market and conversely the BDI. Some managed to fix their tonnage far better than last year and hope they all get their money, as you never ever know…
The Wets once again with mixed feelings; the last published BDTI and BCTI stood at 628 minus four and 556 up four. On a weekly basis the Dirties lost 16 points – from 644 and the Cleans gained 11 – from 545…
The WTI as these lines are written stands a fraction below the US$ 49 mark… at US$ 48.96 . It was US$ 49.62 last Friday… Fluctuations, fluctuations and wonder what’s next. A must to remain below the US$ 50 mark – we keep on repeating this as otherwise we feel it might cause harm to many poor people around Planet Ocean who will respond in an unprecedented manner…
On the Container trade things are not settled yet, as many would like to think of… The majority are still in trouble – both tramp and liner, others think for more consolidation and others order en-mass ships and others struggle to remain afloat… Expect very difficult times ahead. Only if the World Economy picks up, then we might see an upturn in the box trade; until then don’t count your eggs before they are hatched.
The Geopolitical scene as you are reading over the last three years and in particular since February 2017 gets worse minute by minute. People haven’t realised what the next day brings-in… Hope you have carefully studied what we are observing, see last night’s report too and see what you make out of it…
Today, the now of Geopolitics:
The MIGRANTS continue, still, to dominate the news being the number one issue all over Planet Ocean as you have read all this time here and in particular over the last two months. It seems though that we shouldn’t forget that the world we live in and the people we mingle with are the “product” of recent mass migration, but we keep an upper leap for this situation… The same reasons for which people left the mighty continent …err Europe and emigrated in the New World – North and South America or in Australia… Anglo-Saxons, Latinos Chinese and others are the same reason for which today’s world emigrate… Obviously the addition of hard core religious issues is an anathema as the creation of modern terrorists increases with incalculable repercussions… Pause please!
The latest events in the North African Coast – Libya in particular means that there isn’t STILL a coherent EU policy nor one from the UN on the issue; SHAME!!
The Wars in Syria and Iraq against ISIS and others – a few …dozen of groups there continue without any respect or mercy to human lives… Thousand have been butchered – 350,000 dead and 11 (eleven) million displaced… The good news after the fall of Mosul is, hopefully, the imminent fall of Raqqa in Syria – the self-proclaimed capital of the Caliphate by ISIS. Time please. Get rid of them and make Peace which sounds more difficult than war…
The Super powers and “others” with “vested” interests in the region should by now know that the more they continue the more terrorism responds. Smash them here and now completely even if this entails some collateral damage, but smash them and end this mess once and for all! If there is another flare-up in the region the results for the shipping industry will be detrimental, as one of the dire straits regions with three entries-exits will be closed to navigation…
Turkey becomes on all counts the stumbling block in the entire region; the way the Turkish blackmail works is despicable and wonder how morons are Turkeys backers… Erdogan on purpose has send all these millions of MIGRANTS to Europe, firstly to upset the Greeks on their islands and then the Europeans…Turkey has to respect international law or else. Today the Turkish air force continued its despicable violation of Greece’s airspace and the time will come that an accident might ignite the worse ever situation. CAUTION CAUTION CAUTION. The Super powers use a double language and behaviour towards Turkey and its leaders but the forthcoming events will upset them as Turkey is simply a pariah state given its internal mess following the orchestrated coup by president Erdogan who like another Nero used and uses deceit to get rid of his enemies… Time will give the Turkish leaders and their backers the worse ever lesson – hopefully soon… Wait to see what will happen with the Kurds proclaiming their independent state which now is spread in four countries – Iraq, Turkey, Iran and Syria as well as the end of the Syrian mess… Ah! The religious fever in Turkey takes incalculable dimensions and the time will come that same would not be contained… Turkey is not Iraq, or Iran or Libya… or Afghanistan, just wait and see… From the latest Qatari “crisis” you can extract views… Pity for Ataturk’s legacy! CAUTION! Now you see why a Naval Blockade – for which we have been the strongest advocates, with whatever this entails and with rules of engagement, is the only response to Turkish blackmail AND possible expansionism to entertain Turkish losses in the eastern part of this country…
Cyprus must be the European Union’s focal point in re-unifying its people and ask the occupant Turkish army to leave here and now. Germany having being divided for other reasons MUST work towards this end and it is about time to end the occupation of a European Union State… the hype somehow must end from all on the Cyprus issue…
Greece too is another hot point / spot given its internal issues and the organised bankruptcy from its lenders – a despicable crime against its people… It is about time the conspirators are named and shamed, as going Scott-free – for the time being, doesn’t serve any purpose whatsoever… Meantime day by day many pathetic stories of fraudsters come out but if you go a bit deeper the foreign factor is dominant. Did I hear you say GREXIT? And what if Greece enters another election fever, and very soon… Who can counter on this “prospect”…? Extraordinary things might happen and same powered by true revelations will see the Pandora’s’ box wide open…
For the time being the holiday season in Greece keeps everybody indifferent… The heat wave too… expect another type of messy …wave to replace same and see reality upside down… Time to see an end in the wildfires; felt awful with the one in St. Anargiri in Spetses… as well as just now the one in Pitsinades at the island of Kythira…
The Western Balkans too remain a very dodgy region and despite continues talks things might get sour. This, to a certain extent will also affect the Adriatic coast line .-
The Black Sea too continues to send the message that Russia remains the dominant power there and any provocation will receive the appropriate response. The response too will affect the Baltic States were the West has begun certain defensive preparations…
Parts of Eastern Europe, now within the European Union namely Poland and Hungary have their own ideas on certain matters and this might cause split within the EU!
Italy and other European nations live in a state of hell with the extreme temperatures which one day very soon will completely change the climate of Europe and result in 200,000 deaths towards the end of this century but I guess this will happen far earlier…
Not a good time for omelettes in Germany; the Dutch have an issue there – unacceptable for 2017! Ensure that this never happens again Mrs. Merkel and Mr. Rutter!!! Make sure the punishment is a paradigmatic one or else! The Netherlands are one of the biggest exporters and producers of eggs, possibly the number one with ten billion of eggs per annum and exports the 65 centum !
Climate change is everywhere and it is time the USA lead to this and NOT leave the negos table, as the latest we heard was that, officially the USA issued a written statement notifying the United Nations of its intention to withdraw from the Paris 2015 Climate Agreement, despite the fact that nearly 200 nations agree to keep warming below the level of 2 degree Celsius above the pre-industrial times and even try and reduce same more… Climate change will greatly affect the intermodal chain part of which, the biggest slice/leg belongs to shipping – ships! Already we see what is happening…
BREXIT continues with more and more issues surfacing everyday, the immigration issue and the borders and conversely the border controls are going to bother everybody – expect though a last minute “resalto”… Moreover we witness gains in the FTSE but the Pound weakens… Personally I feel confident, and have already mentioned that all will be well provided the United Kingdom uses appropriately its Commonwealth of 1,9 billion people, and trade far better and all will be plain sailing; no other block is more powerful than the British Commonwealth! Obviously an important aspect in the BREXIT talks and reality, is the reality of the “divorce” bill with the EU but the United Kingdom might opt, and wisely enough say, a NO.- On another tone, the World Athletic Championships are on in Stratford London at the Olympic Park Stadium South of Queen Elizabeth Olympic Park until the 13th of August; enjoy!
At the other side of the Atlantic now with plentiful of news; North, East, South, West… In the North president Trump must have these 17 days of holidays …err vacation per the American vocabulary. He leaves behind the White House not in order…as he expected, plus too many issues unresolved for which I guess he will have ample time to think and act accordingly: The Russian election burning saga and all that surrounds same with those from his inner and outer circle involved as it is mentioned – there isn’t smoke without fire, but let’s end; the North Korean sanctions might soon be imposed – add those against Russia and Iran… the Chinese behaviour who don’t do anything to support Peace in the Far east… Ah! Europe too which is in tatters – you have seen above the European – Middle East mess… The Saudis, the Qataris the lot… The Afghanis, The Turks, The Brazilians, The Venezuelans, everybody is in his mind… Ah! … and the Mexican one with the cost of the wall… Is it a ..nyet from president Nieto…??? As we have said Planet Ocean is on fire and let’s see his business charisma how will confront all these issues and what appropriate solutions he will dictate to this effect. A very difficult presidency lies ahead particularly with the tit for tat with Moscow… No other president had to face so many problems. On the flip side of all these issues the Dow Jones Industrial Average keeps rising and the latest above the 22,000 creates a new situation… Are we going to witness a better corporate America? Can Planet Ocean’s Economy …improve? More jobs? Just wonder… and believe something extraordinary is in the cards… God Bless America!
And what do we make a bit south in north east South America…, I am pointing on the Venezuelan jeopardy orchestrated by extremes – in mind and “faithful” of president Nicholas Maduro’s “praetorians” faithful to socialism of …a fourth kind like his likes in south-east Europe… A well off country turned into a madhouse; e n o u g h, as what we will soon experience following the referendum there the new Constituent Assembly acting immorally against those the Maduro regime dislikes!!
In Africa now: in Rwanda look likely president Paul Kagame might won a third term with a landslide victory as 9 out of 10 seems they voted supporting the resurrection of the country following the 1994 genocide despite his critics abroad accuse him of ruling through fear… Elsewhere in Congo we had 250 dead in the volatile Kasai region; caution… South Africa too has immense issues, above all it needs a financial stability and more than appropriate security for all!
Wonder what on earth the Chinese authorities care or bother so much for and are holding drills for harmful websites!!! Best they look for harmful nuclear sites in neighbouring North Korea and assist the world – East and West coexist in a non-nuke fear.
At the other side now awaits and stands …warring too an anxious Japan who cannot bear an iota from all this eastern continental revenge; it’s all about a revenge – you dead well know what I mean! Mind me the Japanese will defend to the extreme end their dignity! The USA and the entire world know who’s the real culprit and who has changed in maintaining Peace in the region… All the escalation in South China Sea might backfire, as might do the Chinese investments in the Mighty Continent… Europe to say and be understood… Abenomics and Abewarrings are Siamese twins so to speak!
Seventy years ago British Rule come to an end in India and two states surfaced; a Hindu majority India and a Muslim majority Pakistan; let us hope that their animosity ends as soon as possible as things might turn sour. Despite all these unacceptable happenings where both countries can harm each other via their nuclear arsenals, there are people whose friendship survived from both sides. Lets give Peace there another chance!
Have a nice week-end and be on guard from issues and troubles emanating from Pirates and Terrorists wherever you and you ships are on Planet Ocean!
Uploaded 16:40 BST
Updated 23:55 BST
