GLOBAL & REGIONAL MONTHLY (Thursday, 7 May 2020)
GLOBAL & REGIONAL MONTHLY
Despite improved risk-on sentiment since the end of March, incoming economic data for a number of countries illustrate that the depth of the ongoing recession is unprecedented in modern times, including sharp unemployment increases and a first-ever plunge in oil future prices below zero.
Nevertheless, global economic activity seems to be bottoming out in Q2, with lockdowns and social distancing measures starting to ease as many countries are cautiously reopening their economies. We have downgraded our 2020 GDP growth projection to -2.5% from -1.8% previously, followed by a strong GDP growth rebound of around 5.0% in 2021 according to our forecasts based on provisional data.
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