What could peak oil do to tanker demand?
Could an oil tanker ordered today be a stranded asset by 2030?
I’m sure you’ve seen reports about how bp is predicting Peak Oil. it’s a scenario that is considered in this year’s annual bp Statistical Review of World Energy. You can view it here. Bp has clearly been concerned about it for some time; the rebranding to lower case bp and the ‘beyond petroleum’ tag line have lit up years ago. Recent mult-billion hydrocarbon divestment programmes and renewables investments such as last week’s offshore wind deal with Equinor have illuminated bp’s path to ‘net zero by 2050’ as its own website proclaims and as the company announced as recently as August this year.
The headline that most media have latched onto is the possibility that the world may have reached, or may be about to reach peak oil consumption. Demand for the black gold may never recover from the economic effects of the coronavirus pandemic. The bp review suggests that the scale and rapidity of oil’s decline depend on the rate of decarbonisation of transport, particularly road transport, which accounts for two thirds of every barrel of refined petroleum products.
Opec’s latest report published this Monday on the Organisation’s 60th birthday, projects a 9.5 Mn bpd fall in oil demand in 2020 compared to 2019, a downward revision from the 9.1 Mn bpd fall projected in their last report in August. Tthat’s about five VLCC cargoes, every single day, or 1,825 cargoes a year. That’s not far off China’s crude oil import levels on VLCCs.
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