The BDI (Baltic Dry Index) gained 28 points since yesterday and now reads 2,146 remaining more or less the same as per last week, i.e. at 2,150 points. Uncertain Wets with a rising BDTI and a falling BCTI. On the Geopolitical front, ensure you are well protected, as things now with Ukraine’s continuous catastrophe will turn more than sour. Covid makes a new comeback and Monkeypox might cause mess. John Faraclas’ daily and weekly recaps:
The BDI stood at 2,146 – minus four points since last week’s 2,150 caused mainly by the difficulties of the Capes and Panamaxes. Our projection is that next week we might see the BDI below the 2,000 points…
The Capes’ BCI was up 43 points since yesterday at 2,696 and minus 223 since last week’s 2,919 points losing the 2,700 to 2,900 points thresholds.
The Panamaxes’ BPI was up 42 points at 2,093 and on a weekly basis 208 points – up from 1,885, going over and above the 2,000 points threshold.
Minor gains for the Supras’ BSI, now at 2,080 points – up seven since yesterday and up 41 since last week’s 2,039…
An ace plus for the Handies’ BHSI now at 1,211 points and plus 30 since last Friday the 15th of July when same stood at 1,181 surpassing also the 1,200 points threshold.
All in all, a stagnant and uncertain volatile Dry Market and let’s see whether the Grain and other Foodstuff agreements signed between Russia, Turkiye, Ukraine, and the UN if can be appropriately performed… and exports can begin saving millions of lives; watch this space! We foresee preferential treatment and jeopardies…
The Wets were a bit …peculiar with minor daily changes but major weekly ones; the last published BDTI (Dirties) and BCTI (Cleans) stood at 1,485 – up four and 1,316 down five points respectively. On a weekly basis the Dirties gained 112 points – up from 1,369 last week (15/07) and down 61 – from 1,382 respectively… a very odd situation…
The WTI was down US$1.65 since yesterday and now stands at US$ 94.70; on a weekly basis same was down US$ 2.89 from last Friday’s (15/07) US4 97.59 – a “good week”, and a second in a row seeing the WTI dropping twice below US$ 100 mark… Still a long way to go for the optimum and affordable US$ 49.99; the general energy crisis might produce asymmetrical levels… You see Russian Gas plays a lever, for the moment until we see an overturn… Watch this space!
The FTSE100 was up both on a daily – 5.86, as well as on weekly basis 117.56, and now reads 7,276.37 despite the political and economic turmoil in the UK!
The Dow Jones was down 137.61 points since yesterday and now stands at 31,899.29. On a weekly basis, same was up 611.03 points – up from last week’s (15/07) 31.288.26 points, despite Recession in the USA which no one wishes to admit…
The Nikkei was up at 27,914.66 – 111.16 points since yesterday and 1,126.19 since last week’s closing (15/07) when same stood at 26,788.47…
The Euro / US Dollar parity raises eyebrows and same end at 1.0187 – up 110 from 1,0077 (15/07). On the 14/07 we had the lowest level of 1,0025… What will happen if same fells below the US$ 1 mark, particularly with the Italian turmoil as well as interest rates peculiar levels…?
On the Geopolitical front; main news and issues:
Ukraine goes from worse to worse – this applies for both combatants, Ukrainians and Russians and let’s see if we reach the point of “whatever it takes” for both sides… Every means of protecting each sides’ “vested” interests can be expected. We have already mentioned that Russia might flatten Ukraine if Russian objectives are not met per Mr. Putin’s desires; equally expect a counter Western retaliation. Remember that from the very beginning in late February, we have explicitly mentioned the both to blame collision maxim… Killing innocent people from both sides will become a boomerang…
The deal for grains and other foodstuffs signed in Istanbul – mentioned last week, remains to be materialised but the preference fiasco will rule the day. Just wait to see and given the continuation of the war, same might prove a midsummer night’s dream. For a start, the cost of transport and the insurances is colossal…
On Energy, expect devastating developments as Russia for the time being calls the shots due to some EU political leaders being both naïve as well as irresponsible and fully incompetent to foresee the Russian trick and blackmail… No excuses please…
Turkey raises the stakes in the entire central and east Med region – including the Balkans and parts of the Middle East… Moreover, president Erdogan’s hallucinations for becoming a super power and the leader in the region are not just for internal consumption due to the forthcoming elections next year, his threats against Greece and Cyprus in particular are more than real. It is about time for the entire EU whose frontiers in the Aegean are those of Greece and in the east Med are those of Greece and Cyprus to make its presence felt; words and verbal statements are not enough. Next week’s visits in France and in Greece of Greece’s and Germany’s Foreign Secretaries respectively meeting their counterparts will determine a lot whether Erdogan, Tsavusoglou and their followers like it or not… Erdogan’s hermaphrodite relationship with Russia and the West – EU and NATO MUST end…
Wildfires continued this week all over South Europe; shame as some were arsons… Indeed Climate Crisis “contributes” to these wildfires all over Planet Ocean, but… pin down the arsonists; they are terrorising nature in its entirety.-
Sweden and Finland despite overcoming the Turkish veto on joining NATO have to surpass Putin’s threats…which are real.
Italians could not honour Super Mario, Mario Draghi who was doing a good job to save his country and strengthen the EU! Pity; let us see who pays the damage… AND was it a plot as rumours have it?
Already Migrants, the most important issue for nearly two decades in Europe as well as its handling by the moron / impotent politicians, have threatened the social cohesion. Now the Energy crisis as a result of the Ukrainian – Russian war might as well threaten same with incalculable and despicable repercussions…
What a meeting that was in Teheran between Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Turkiye’s Erdogan and Russia’s Vladimir Putin; another reason to expel Turkiye from NATO… eh!!!!
At the other side of the Atlantic tension remains with the USA and China over the visit of Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the House of Representatives in Far Eastern nations and if that will include Taiwan, which she was going to visit in April but due to COVID, she had to abort same…
South China Sea and Taiwan are the tip of the iceberg for both the USA and China. Chinese behaviour MUST change as the USA and Europe have greatly supported China as a manufacturing nation against their own economies and unemployment, for China’s development. It’s about time China gets the message. The support given by China to Russia shows the ungratefulness of the Chinese to the West and in particular to the USA, UK and Europe. In the Shipping sector, imagine if Shipowners pull off from the Chinese Shipyards and build elsewhere, particularly in Europe… and support its ailing shipards; CAUTION…
Mind the North Korean leader’s Kim Jong-Un threats, now escalating faster than ever before in the proxy war over the Korean peninsular. He is certainly very upset with South Korea’s new president Yoon Suk-yeol, not to mention the Japanese and the Americans… Another CAUTION for all…
In Africa we have next month the Kenyan elections amid rising cost of living and drought; Kenya is one of Africa’s leading economies.
A referendum is coming up in Tunisia which might be more than favourable for President Kais Said who is after corruption.
Nearby Algeria and Morocco might soon arrange to improve their relationship…
Some clashes in Tripoli, Libya among militias diverted flights to Misrata… let’s hope things remain under control..
Haiti remains in a mess… CAUTION, particularly after many children took refuge in a Part-au-Prince school following violence by gangs; many people were killed this month…
Drug lord Rafael Caro Quintero was captured today but 14 Mexican Marines died after their helicopter, which was taking place in the operation, crashed…
Will Australia and China ease tensions and exchange Ambassadors?
The Holidays period in the northern hemisphere comes to a peak with another 50 (fifty) days to go… Worth mentioning the expensive flights, poor Covid measures except on ships, overcrowded airports and a pandemonium in ports… Hygene a MUST in airplanes WC’s. Time to rectify same as these WC’s are only for mosquitoes…
COVID is spreading and expect bad news in September. It is the Medical World and its people to govern and NOT the Politicians. We have mentioned this many times. CAUTION!
CAUTION also for the Monkeypox…
and CAUTION for the Climate Crisis…
Finally, today the Orthodox Christians celebrate Saint Marcella, the Saint Patron of the Island of Chios Island in the Eastern Aegean. A significant day for both Greeks and Italians.
Have a nice evening and weekend but continue to remain on guard from actions emanating from Pirates, Terrorists, Criminals and any Business Hooligans whatsoever wherever you are on Planet Ocean. Once again a big THANK YOU to all who really care for all humans – Doctors, Nurses, Seafarers, Dockers, Port Authorities et al during this Coronavirus disaster!! We repeat: Do please invest in Hospitals including Equipment, Doctors, Nurses and any useful means to avoid further disasters! Become more disciplined and care for the Environment too. As for the mess in Ukraine, you have not seen anything yet as well as its spread… Lastly: Education and Training for all to be able to tackle these disasters. Let us work collectively together and NOT opt for a fistful of Dollars to restart the already collapsed global economy… which is now approaching the US$ 400 (four hundred) trillion debt…
