Latest data from Xeneta is ‘a wake-up call’ for shippers, as we argue now is the time to negotiate long-term rates

Latest data from Xeneta is ‘a wake-up call’ for shippers, as we argue now is the time to negotiate long-term rates
Xeneta sees a shift in ocean freight rates in Q3’23. Act now for better deals on long-term contracts. Get the details here.

Press Release with quotes: https://www.xeneta.com/news/container-rates-alert-latest-data-is-a-wake-up-call-for-shippers-as-xeneta-argues-now-is-the-time-to-negotiate-long-term-rates

Smart money

Looking at the key Far East to North Europe trade lane, Xeneta’s real-time data shows that even through spot rates have fallen by around USD 100 per FEU since early August’s GRIs, they are still around a third higher than prices in early July.

“Spot rates on this major trade lane now command a premium of around 20% over contracted rates, and this corridor is not an exception,” she notes, adding: “When spot rates start rising there’s usually a small lag and then long-term rates emulate them. If we look back to late 2019, the last time spot rates fell below long-term rates, GRIs in November helped push spot rates up and on 1 January 2020 long-term rates climbed by USD 250 per FEU. That’s not to say the exact same thing will happen now, but it’s certainly a lesson shippers need to bear in mind,” Emily Stausbøll warns.

Real-time shift

According to Xeneta’s data, a noteworthy development is already underway. Looking at average rates for long-term contracts signed within the past three months prices are still falling, standing at USD 1 400 per FEU between the Far East and North Europe on 21 August. However, the data covering contracts signed within the last month show a slight increase, of 30 USD per FEU. This is the first increase since April.

“This implies that contracted rates have bottomed out and, when we look at the spot rate development, could now be on the way up,” Stausbøll comments.

Link to the full analysis behind: https://www.xeneta.com/blog/container-rates-week34-2023-time-to-shift-strategy-data-points-to-bottoming-out-of-long-term-rates-raising-key-questions-for-tendering-time

Weekly Container Rate Update Week 34’23 | Time to shift strategy? Data points to bottoming out of long-term rates, raising key questions for tendering time

Spot rates between the Far East and North Europe move above long-term contracted prices. It’s a pattern we’re seeing on other major trades as carriers try to shore up the market before entering the next round of contract negotiations

www.xeneta.com

DID YOU get a chance to check out our “Name and Fame”, the carriers that do well on carbon emissions performance this week?

If not – here it is: https://www.xeneta.com/blog/q223-carbon-emission-carrier-ranking-north-europe-us-east-coast

A special chart with carriers speed development is found in the link too – next to the full analysis.