This document has been approved for distribution by Sea Guardian S.G. Ltd / Operations Department. The provided Intel and information derive from open sources, the Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) and United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) respective WebPages and products.All rights reserved. No part of this Risk Assessment may be reproduced in any form: electronic, mechanical, or other means without written permission by Sea Guardian S.G. Ltd. Under no Circumstances can Sea Guardian S.G. Ltd be held responsible for any loss or damage caused by a reader’s reliance on information obtained by this Assessment.
Objectives
The purpose of this brief is to provide the Maritime Industry and the Security Stakeholders with:
Major maritime security incident summary and analysis for the time period 06 – 13 Nov 2024
Threat assessment updates concerning military operations – terrorism – piracy and also cargo theft, smuggling, stowaways
Overview of risk assessment and relevant information,in order to support operational planningand decision making.
RECENT KEY DEVELOPMENTS
During late October, a panel of experts appointed by UN submitted a report to UN Security Council which indicates that the Houthis have been allegedly collecting illegal fees from a few shipping agencies in order to allow their ships to sail through the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden without being attacked. According to sources they estimate that the Houthis’ earnings from these illegal safe-transit fees to be about $180 million per month and that this money is transferred via the informal network of money transfers known as “HAWALA”. However, the UN experts conceded, that they could not independently verify this information.
On Nov 05, Donald Trump won the American Presidential elections and on Jan 2025 will become the 47th President of the USA. His victory over his Democratic party adversary Kamala Harris was decisive since he won 312 electors in Electoral College against 266, the popular vote by 50,2% against 48,1 %, and finally seems almost certain to have won both the Congress bodies – the House of Representatives and the Senate thus gaining more freedom in passing laws and acts.
On Nov 06, the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sent congratulations message to the new US President stating that he is overjoyed and that a new era in US-Israel relations and cooperation is at hand.
On Nov 07, Ali Larijani, an adviser to the Islamic Republic’s Supreme Leader stated on Iranian state television that Israel seeks to bring conflict to Iran and that Iran must act wisely so as not to fall into its trap and not react instinctively.
On 08 Nov, Hezbollah claimed that it fired missiles at an Israeli naval base near Haifa, northern Israel, the second such attack in less than 24 hours
On Nov 09, FBI officials stated that they have foiled a plot to assassinate Trump a few weeks before the U.S. presidential election. Investigation involves a 51-year-old Iranian man with Afghan citizenship, who was instructed by Iran. Iranian officials rejected these claims.
On Nov 11, the President-elect Donald Trump announced his intention to name former Arkansas governor and former pastor Mike Huckabee, a major supporter of new Israeli settlements in Palestinian territory, as the new U.S. Ambassador to Israel.
On Nov 11, the USN repelled multiple Houthi attacks on two destroyers, USS Stockdale (DDG 106) and USS Spruance (DDG 111), which are part of the USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72) Aircraft Carrier Strike Group that currently operates in the region. The attacks included at least eight drones, five anti-ship ballistic missiles and three cruise missiles. There was no damage and all attacks were successful repelled.
On Nov 12, the Israeli Prime Minister sent a new message to the Iranian people, warning that a third Iranian attack on Israel “would simply cripple Iran’s economy” and that the cost for Iran’s last attacks was over 2.3 billion dollars. He also said that the ruling Khomeini regime with its actions has turned the international community against Iran, and that the people of Iran would have benefited more if these money had been invested in such domains as education, health care and infrastructures. Finally he called upon the Iranian People to imagine a life of true freedom and without oppression.
THREAT ASSESSMENT UPDATE:
Military operations – terrorism – piracy and also cargo theft, smuggling, stowaways
Military Operations
NTR
Terrorism – piracy and also cargo theft, smuggling, stowaways
NTR
RISK ASSESSMENT
The risk of attacks or incidents in the East Mediterranean Sea and Northern Red Sea for the time being is assessed Low with the exception of all Israeli ports. Any port call should be arranged after a direct contact with the Israeli authorities.
The Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, the southernmost part of the Rea Sea and the eastern part of the Gulf of Aden are still assessed to be the most hazardous areas, with one significant incident occurring during last period against USN ships.
The pattern of the recent Houthi attacks indicates that their latest strategy favors the conduct of multiple attacks by ASBM, UAVs and cruise missiles.
The US and UK airstrike campaign against Yemen during Sep-Oct 24 along with the naval USN and RN buildup in the area and the deployment of warships of international/EU maritime Operations “PROSPERITY GUARDIAN” and “ASPIDES”, seem to have mitigated at a certain degree, the Houthi targeting and attack capabilities.
It is assessed that the UN report claiming that Houthi rebels have figured out a way to monetize their blockade of the Red Sea in excess of 180$ million USD per month for “safe passage” is valid and that this new Houthi “economic endeavor” will fuel further terrorist activity and acts of piracy in the region. In addition, it will also give the group a financial incentive to continue its attacks, no matter what happens in Gaza and Lebanon.
It is assessed that Greek-owned ships in the Southern Red Sea and Gulf of Oman are at greatest risk of attack by the Houthis and are some of the most frequent targets amongst vessels from Western countries.
Marine Traffic through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait remains down nearly 70% year over year and the majority of shipping is transiting the Cape of Good Hope. As targets of opportunity for the Houthis diminish due to this decrease, it is assessed that vessels with multiple layers of indirect associations to Israel will be targeted ever more frequently. Maritime industry stakeholders should take into account such associations when conducting threat and risk assessments.
There are no signs indicating that the Straits of Hormuz are about to be blocked by Iran.
The decisive victory of Donald Trump in the US Presidential elections undeniably marks a new era for the US foreign policy, global trade and security worldwide, no matter how much of the new President’s pre-elections pledges, announcements and vows are to be materialized during his tenure. However, there are three main issues the new President has made clear being among his major priorities which concern the Middle East region: First of all, “trade by rules” will be imposed even on allies and friends (namely EU countries) and “freedom of navigation” by reopening and securing all trade routes in order to reduce transportation and insurance costs. Secondly, the revisiting of Abraham Accords by rekindling of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia and pacifying regional conflicts in the Middle East, in order to secure US interests in the region. And last, that the overall US foreign policy in the Middle East will be quite favorable and more supportive towards Israel leading to close cooperation between the two counties’ governments on the issue of containing and disrupting Iran’s policies in order to force Iran to negotiate a new nuclear agreement.
It is assessed that the Israeli government for the time being and until January 2025, when the new US President assumes duties, will avoid further escalation with Iran. However, this does not exclude the possibility of a new and more far-reaching counter attack against Iran and its’ proxies in case of another Iranian attack, especially now that the Israeli prime minister feels confident that Trump will not try to restrain him, if not to openly support him.
Taking into account the November 6th result of the US elections, it is assessed that both Iran and Israel will keep a moderate stance against each other, waiting to identify the potential new policy of Trumps’ administration by the end of January 2025.
The current situation around the seas of the Arabic Peninsula will continue the months to come to create risk for the shipping industry and will deter vessels to cross the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. It is assessed that the situation will not improve significantly, at least till summer of 2025.
Sea Guardian S.G. Ltd / Intel Department (www.sguardian.com / +30 6944373465) can support your operational planning, assist in determining the risk assessment and provide assistance in decision making by producing tailored made assessments upon request on ports in the region, on routes, on cargos and specific merchant vessels.
You can refer to our Threat & Risk assessment analysis brief No 24/001//10 Sep 24 for more information and background analysis on the events and situation in the region.
Viewers can connect also with the previous report: https://allaboutshipping.co.uk/2024/11/11/sea-guardians-threat-risk-assessment-brief-update-05-november-2024/
