John Faraclas
The BDI, despite the latest “prospects”, loses steam and volatility continues to be the name of the game. The Geopolitical situation remains more than uncertain with expected mess to make it explosive; John Faraclas weekly and fortnight report.
The BDI (Baltic Dry Index) lost 20 points earlier on today since yesterday and now stands at 963 points …thanks to the Panamaxes who saved the day from wider loses, as the Capers lost a triple-digit number! In general this beginning doesn’t look promising; time will tell as we are since December 2013 in dire straits… As last week there were not figures due to the Festive Season, we can only compare and remind you those a fortnight ago (23 Dec.2016). That is to say that the BDI was standing at 961 points, meaning that it …improved with just two points!
The Capers lost 101 points since yesterday proving how volatile the BCI 2014 can be, which now stands at 1,658 points. On the 23rd of December the BCI 2014 stood at 1,385 points, so this is a good 273 points plus, but volatility doesn’t have a leg to stand.
The Panamaxes gained 55 points – the only dry size with a plus today and now the BPI stands at 892 points. That is 40 points plus from the 23rd of Decemebr when the BPI stood at 852 points.
The Supras’ BSI lost 12 points and now reads 783 points… A “relative” big fall here as, a fortnight ago, it stood at 903 – that’s minus 120 points…
The Handies lost too a controlled 13 points with the BHSI at 508; caution as below the 500 level brings bad news. Another comparative loss here of 89 points as it stood fifteen days ago at 597.
CAUTION CAUTION CAUTION for the dry Market. The sales and purchase prices are not yet reflecting the reality. Caution here too.
The Wets lost points too; the last published BDTI (Dirties) and BCTI (Cleans) saw a 29 and seven points loss respectively, now standing at 1,024 and 854 points… A good fortnight as the BDTI and BCTI stood at 936 and 675 respectively; 88 and 179 points plus!
The WTI more or less at the same levels, as well as at the same pre-Christmas ones; at US$ 53… still an expensive commodity for the majority of the consumers worldwide… Comparison-wise, it stood at the same levels as before Christmas!
The Container trade brings more worries not just for 2017 but beyond, unless consolidation, scrapping and box-control takes place, otherwise expect huge losses and Hanjin will look like a kindergarten…
LNG and its market looks a bit promising…
The Cruise Industry tries to re-assert itself following the wave of terrorists acts and war in the entire Eastern Med and the Middle East – add parts of North Africa and see what you get…
The Geopolitical front with all that happens all over Planet Ocean is a very dangerous “environment” to …live these days; we advise ultra-caution as things IN ALL fronts might go off hand…
To begin with, the MIGRANTS issue will soon reshape our lives all over the world; not just in Europe. A despicable situation thanks to the antagonism of the major powers, demagogues, populist politicians, diplomats, religious leaders and functions, the business hooligans, to name but a few…
The Syrian and Iraqi saga with the ISIS and all the rest of Pacifists there, as well as all the major proxy warriors relentlency continues. Expect a far more destruction, mess and spillage as we have predicted. The terrorists attacks will continue with all the embattled functions and nations involved. Caution! The entire region from Gibraltar to Afghanistan and from Caucasus to the Horn of Africa is in a total mess; add the religious factors and see what you get.
Turkey, as we have stressed, is in severe red alert, a country to watch as, amongst other issues its economy is in a free fall and this can trigger many other issues. Turkey must respect international laws (yes laws in plural) and conform with common logic as a neighbour for all the nations it borders with and the wider periphery – Balkans, Caucasus, etc., etc. Can Turkey understand the importance of the Cyprus issue and the eventual square deal? I am an optimist but a pragmatist too, hence I doubt of the current meeting’s outcome. The super powers have to realise that a just solution must take place, otherwise expect another round of mess…
Greece also enters a difficult period both internally and externally and at all costs elections should be shelved-off… Greece needs an ARISTOS team to run the country for ten years and then, obviously, elections should take place. Wonder what the opposition parties can offer and perform, hence our view for the ARISTOS. The Tsipras & Co morphoma must leave here and now. The current political forces in Greece are also chronic morphomas and brought, in collaboration with the enemies of Greece, the country to a standstill.-
Europe must get its act together and the forthcoming elections in many European Union countries have to produce winner-leaders with pragmatic vision.
The BREXIT issue will alter for the good the Mighty Continent; the British economy is fine and one day it will flourish. London will call the shots as it does as a world shipping centre! The Administrative Capital of Shipping; will become also a better world business centre!
The USA must react strongly to what has been aired by its security services and Mrs. Clinton too; otherwise something else, very sinister goes on… The reaction from the Democrats seems out of any context, unless they revert… CAUTION with the CYBER issues, CYBERCRIME in particular.
Putin’s Russia continues with an asymmetrical agenda; caution for all, but also he (Putin) shouldn’t overstay the world’s welcome…
China is also trying to get involved with running Planet Ocean, but it is too early; Democracy first and foremost, and then we shall see. Democracy and fair trading; both matter and are interwoven – you dead well know what I mean.
Japan, will continue to call the shots in the region! The country to be closely watched!
On another tone, the 63rd London Boat Show opening and first day earlier on today at Excel was more than a success; it seems to me that there are more stands and more products, new inventions and very special crafts from previous exhibitions!!!
Excellent organisation from all involved and we urge all to visit these events whether they are in the UK or from abroad.
Viewers can log herebelow and listen to a small video; have a nice weekend and don’t miss the show.
Today, the Christiandome celebrates the Epiphany and hope many come to terms with this reality… the message of Epiphany, no matter your religious belief, is paramount; in reality same derives from Ancient Greece. Research and you will be more than surprised!
Once again, be on guard for every eventuality wherever you are, particularly from Terrorists actions.
