John Faraclas
Midweek Market blues amid global uncertainty…
The BDI (Baltic Dry Index) lost 100 points, thanks to the volatile Capes which losses amounted to 398 points… The Wets with mixed feelings. Geopolitics in jeopardy… John Faraclas midweek recap:
The BDI now reads 1,849 points and the drop was “halted” by the steady rise of the Panamaxes…
The Capes’ BCI is now down to 3,570 points… CAUTION
The Panamaxes’ BPI “saved” the day with a 60 plus points and now stands at 1,517 surpassing the 1,500 points threshold.
“Rich pickings” for the Supras’ BSI now a 773 – up 48 points, and
Just three points plus for the Handies’ BHSI now at 420…
C A U T I O N is what we advise for the Dries… It might be just a hiccup but…. It might continue to fall…
Viewers can see VesselsValue Values Forecast Summer 2020; an interesting report:
Capesizes looking best for short term gains but Feedermaxes are in it for the long haul
We’ve just passed the mid point in what’s been a very unique year, and our forecast values have had their quarterly update. For full commentary on each sector please see our blog, but for now please enjoy the snapshots below.
Overview
Uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus outbreak, the trade war and volatility in oil prices are governing business decisions being made in 2020. Shipyard demand will likely encounter a further blow given the vast disruptions to economic growth and trade globally and delays to scrubber retrofits have already been seen and are expected to continue.
Containment measures and the potential for a resurgence of coronavirus remains a great uncertainty for global trade. Volatility in commodity prices has increased dramatically, complicating the outlook across the shipping markets.
To prop up economies central governments have released significant financial support to secure economic activity and thus seaborne demand post pandemic.
Bulkers
- Vale, the major Brazilian iron ore producer has reiterated its production guidance for the year, confident that volumes will return. The uptick of Brazilian export volumes into China resulted in the increased freight rates throughout June.
- With very few orders over the last couple of years and with only a handful having taken place in this year there is declining tonnage supply.
- +4 on the blog
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Tankers: Please see our blog for full run down and supporting charts.
Containers
- A massive drop in consumer demand as various countries locked down to contain the virus meant there has been an unprecedented collapse in box cargo volumes, comparable to the Financial Crisis, counted by a large amount of blanked sailings.
- This led to a drop in freight rates across all Container tonnage with the larger Post Panamax vessels down c.60% compared to mid February. Freight rates are predicted to continue to fall this year, although the steepest fall seems to be behind us.
- Newbuild orders have been low this year, a total of 5 ULCVs hit the water this spring, including the world’s largest container vessel, the 23,964 TEU HMM Algeciras in April.
Gas: Please see our blog for full run analysis and supporting charts.
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The Wets with mixed feelings; the Dirties continue to rise and the Cleans to fall – both slightly. The last published BDTI (Dirties) and BCTI (Cleans) stood at 492 – plus five and 358 – minus nine points respectively…
The WTI was slightly up at US$ 40.86… Once again we advise CAUTION…
The Geopolitical front all over Planet Ocean is in a state of war… It is a matter of days before we witness hostilities spreading all over.
The faulty line from Gib to Afghanistan and from the Caucuses to the Horn of Africa will “welcome” Turkish offences in at least three fronts. That will spill over and we will witness terrible developments… The hypocrisy of EU in monumental… Is Cyprus and Greece members of the EU YES or NO? If YES, then why Brussels don’t get military tough with Turkey? What are Brussels afraid from? Even from Washington, verbal advice doesn’t count as president Erdogan and his backers have their own agenda… Shame!!!
MIGRANTS maintain the number one position and let’s see how goverments and mainly the UN and the EU handle this despicable issue…
In the middle of the Summer in the northern Hemisphere and yet “we” don’t know how to handle Tourism… How to handle Exhibitions and other Events…
Add the mess of Recession and same coupled with the Coronavirus anathema will have detrimental effects for humanity. Be ready for the unexpected…
Coronavirus spreads and lockdowns might return in many nations… Be disciplined and be prepared for further mess and disruptions. It is the Politicians to blame. It is NOT “The ECONOMY STUPID… “, “It’s HUMAN LIFE STUPID”.
World “leaders” should come down to their senses before they ALL come down to their knees and before they destroy Planet Ocean… Greediness “is” the name of the game bu when the shit hits the fan we would “laugh”… we are not cynical, we are pragmatic…
Have a nice evening and continue to remain on guard from actions emanating from Pirates, Terrorists, Criminals and any Business Hooligans whatsoever wherever you are on Planet Ocean. Once again a big THANK YOU to all who really care for all humans – Doctors, Nurses, Seafarers, Dockers, Port Authorities et al during this Coronavirus disaster!! We repeat: Do please invest in Hospitals including Equipment, Doctors, Nurses and any useful means to avoid further disasters! Become more disciplined and care for the Environment too. Lastly: Education and Training for all to be able to tackle these disasters. Let’s work collectively together and NOT opt for a fistful of Dollars to restart the already collapsed global economy… which is in red US$ 260 (twohundredandsixty) trillion…
