130John (Ioannis) Pavlopoulos, President Sea Guardian SG Ltd., Vice Admiral (ret.) H.N. , Honorary Commander in Chief of the Hellenic Fleet , Former Military Representative of Greece to the NATO and EU
THREAT & RISK ASSESSMENT BRIEF UPDATE
Brief Update No 25/2025 Date: 22 May 2025
STATEMENT
This document has been approved for distribution by Sea Guardian S.G Ltd / Operations Department. The provided Intel and Information derive from open sources, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) and United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), respective Web Pages and products retrofit the company’s Strategic / Operational and Security situational awareness processes for risks and threat assessment/impact to the Security of Maritime operations. All rights reserved, “no part of this Risk assessment may be reproduced in an form (electronical, mechanical, paper or other means) without written permission by Sea Guardian SG Ltd” which maintain the rights for personal data of this document writers. Under no Circumstances can Sea Guardian SG Ltd be held responsible for any loss or damage caused by a reader’s reliance on information obtained by this Assessment, especially on its firms, company’s management or individual decision-making.
Objectives
The purpose of this brief is to provide periodically, in 15-day cycle, the maritime industry and Security Stakeholders or Shareholders with:
Major maritime security incident summary and analysis in Geo-strategic frame for Operational Security and Security of shipping operations for the period 1-19 May 2025.
Threat assessment updates concerning military operations – terrorism -piracy and also cargo theft, smuggling, stowaways.
Overview of risk assessment and relevant information, in order to support operational planning and decision as well as the needs for assuredness (impact for insurance or Special security needs) after threats and risks Analysis (BCP/BIA).
RECENT KEY DEVELOPMENTS
On May 02, the mayor of the mostly Druze town of Sahnaya and his son were shot dead in the suburbs of Damascus by unknown assailants, hours after forces from the Syrian ministries of defence and interior entered the area, local media has reported. Syrian authorities have opened an investigation into the killings, which happened after Hussam Wourour appeared in a video from the area, discussing the escalating violence between the Druze community and the security forces, and calling for calm. “We are not advocating of secession, and we will not be” he said. “Rather, we advocate actual participation and the establishment of a democratic federal state that preserves our dignity, guarantees the freedom of the nation and the citizens, and maintains security.”
On May 05, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, a day after the cabinet voted to intensify combat operations against the Hamas terror group, said that the military will stay stationed in whatever areas of the Gaza Strip are captured until all the goals of the war are reached. In a video posted on his personal X account, Netanyahu said that “last night we sat late into the night in the cabinet and decided on an intensified operation in Gaza”.
On May 05, it is stated that the spike in maritime piracy incidents over the last three months in the Strait of Malacca, one of the world’s busiest commercial sea-lanes, is alarming at a time of simmering tensions in the adjacent South China Sea. Unchecked piracy can give major powers like China and the United States justification to boost their naval presence in and around the strait, only to put regional security at risk. From January to March of this year alone, 25 incidents of armed robbery against ships in the strait were reported, up 9 percent year-on-year. The Malacca Strait Council (MSC) held the third Extraordinary Session of the Implementation Committee Meeting on the Joint Hydrographic Survey of the Strait of Malacca in Singapore from April 26 to 27. MSC members Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore also invited Japan to the meeting, which discussed improving maritime safety in the Malacca and Singapore straits.
On May 06, the agreement (MOU) signed with Ethiopia and Iran is important for Ethiopia for two reasons. Firstly, it’s likely to enable the Ethiopian government in Addis Ababa to combat ethnic militias more effectively. It faces increasing internal instability, including tensions with hostile factions of the separatist Tigray People’s Liberation Front. Secondly, the agreement comes after a meeting in Addis Ababa between the Ethiopian police chief, Demelash Gebremichael, and a delegation from Iran’s regional rival, the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The exchange concentrated on investigating and extraditing cross-border criminals. For Iran, the MOU marks a significant step towards strengthening relations with a regional power that’s strategically located in the Horn of Africa. Tehran has been using its security apparatus and military capabilities to establish and expand political and economic ties with countries in Africa. This has included drone transfers to the Ethiopian government that helped it turned the tide of the Tigray war, a separatist struggle in the country’s north that took place from 2020 to 2022.
On May 06,Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to “defend ourselves alone” against Yemen’s Houthi rebels after US President Donald Trump struck a deal with the Iran-backed group. The US deal, announced just hours after the Israeli military carried out major strikes against Yemen’s international airport and other facilities in response to a Houthi attack on Israel’s main airport, was a surprise to Israel, which was not informed in advance about the truce, an Israeli official told CNN earlier. According to Trump, the US would halt an ongoing military campaign against the Houthis in exchange for the group stopping its attacks on US interests in the region.
On May 09, it is stated that China dispatched a warship to the Persian Gulf for a visit, as tensions between Iran, Beijing’s strategic partner, and the United States continue to grow over the nuclear program of Tehran. The Chinese naval port call in the United Arab Emirates, a vital US security partner, comes ahead of President Donald Trump‘s scheduled visit to the Gulf country next week, where the Middle East is his administration’s focus on diplomacy and regional security cooperation.
On May 09, President Donald Trump announced Tuesday that the US would “stop the bombings” against the Iran-backed Houthi rebel group in Yemen, after the Houthis told the US that “they don’t want to fight anymore.” “We will honor that, and we will stop the bombings” Trump said from the Oval Office, sitting next to the Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney. He was referring to the military campaign the US has been carrying out against the Houthis since mid-March, in response to the group’s attacks on shipping lanes in the Red Sea and on Israel.
On May 09, National Unity chairman and former IDF chief of staff Benny Gantz says he is “very worried” by ultra-Orthodox parties’ refusal to support any bills advanced by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government, “not because of the threat to the coalition, but because it is part of negotiations to continue exempting our ultra-Orthodox brothers from conscription in times of war.” The ultra-Orthodox Shas and United Torah Judaism announced on Monday that they would boycott all government bills during today’s Knesset plenum session, leading to the removal of the legislation from the agenda. On Tuesday evening, tensions ratcheted up even higher after IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir instructed the Personnel Directorate to immediately provide a plan to “expand and maximize” the number of draft orders sent to members of the ultra-Orthodox community.
On May 12, the United Nations mission in Libya called for de-escalation after fighting erupted in the North African nation’s capital. The UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) is “alarmed by the unfolding security situation in Tripoli with intense fighting with heavy weaponry in densely populated civilian areas,” it said in a post on X late Monday.
On May 12, the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) said on Monday it would dissolve itself, in what would be a historic move after decades of conflict with Turkey that have killed tens of thousands of people. The militant group said in a statement that “all activities” conducted under the group’s name have come to an end. In spite of the aforementioned, since the fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in December, the SDF has been negotiating with the new Turkish-allied government in Damascus over what its future role in a newly unified Syria and as a military force will be and what kind of governance will extend to the northeast of the country. The SDF is led by the People’s Protection Units (YPG), which Turkiye views as a “terrorist” group and the Syrian branch of the PKK. The United States, however, has backed the YPG in Syria to fight against ISIL (ISIS).
On May 14, is stated that Ahmad al-Sharaa shook hands with U.S. President Donald Trump. The handshake, at a meeting orchestrated by the leaders of Saudi Arabia and Turkey, captured al-Sharaa’s long journey from hardened jihadi to the leader of a country that is gradually shedding its pariah status as it cements ties with America’s top allies in the Middle East.
On May 14, the UN peacekeeping force in southern Lebanon protested on Wednesday at “direct fire” by the Israeli military at one of its positions, the first since the ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel. UNIFIL sits on the international committee created to supervise the ceasefire agreement that kicked in on November 27 and ended more than two months of all-out war between Israel and the pro-Iranian militant group. That included an “incident in which a direct fire hit the perimeter of a UNIFIL position south of the village of Kfar Shouba”.
On May 14, the IDF issued evacuation warnings to civilians in Yemeni seaports controlled by the Houthis for the second time in recent days without, at press time, having actually attacked. The warning was sent at 9:45 a.m., following a similar warning against the Houthis, in which the military also did not actually attack. These ports include the Ras Isa Port, Hodeidah Port, and the Al-Salif Port.
On May 15, stated that Israel is preparing a series of sites in Gaza that could be used as distribution centers for humanitarian aid in a controversial new plan, satellite images show. The UN has said the blockade has caused severe shortages of food, medicines and fuel, and an assessment warned that Gaza’s population of around 2.1 million people was at “critical risk” of famine. The US confirmed last week that it was preparing a new system for providing aid from a series of hubs inside Gaza, which would be run by private companies and protected by security contractors and Israeli forces.
On May 15, it is stated that the Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and the US, Russian and Ukrainian delegations will be in Istanbul. The Foreign Ministry said that the meeting with Fidan and the Russian delegation began at the Dolmabahce Palace in Istanbul. The Turkish foreign minister hosted the US delegation, led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the Ukrainian delegation led by Defense Minister Rustem Umerov and the Russian delegation led by Presidential Advisor Vladimir Medinsky, while the format has not yet been determined at that time.
On May 15, it is assumed by media near to White House that there’s more to Donald Trump’s Middle East trip than billion-dollar contracts, parades of camels and a storm back home over Qatar’s offer to give the president a new Air Force One. A tour narrowly billed by the White House as a chance for Trump to show he’s a master dealmaker is jumbling the region’s geopolitical jigsaw puzzle. Wherever he goes, Trump brings disruption that can forge possibilities. And he takes risks – for instance, his decision on this trip to lift sanctions on Syria to give a war-ravaged nation a second chance.
On May 15, US President Donald Trump said that the United States was getting very close to securing a nuclear deal with Iran, and Tehran had “sort of” agreed to the terms. “We’re in very serious negotiations with Iran for long-term peace,” Trump said on a tour of the Gulf, according to a shared pool report by AFP. “We’re getting close to maybe doing a deal without having to do this… there (are) two steps to doing this, there is a very, very nice step and there is the violent step, but I don’t want to do it the second way,” he said.
On May 15, the Chief Commander of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC) said Iran is prepared for any scenario amid U.S. threats of military action against the country, vowing that the enemies will be totally humiliated in a standoff with Iran. Major General Hossein Salami made the remarks at a gathering in the southeastern city of Mashhad, referring to threats by the U.S. administration, that Washington may attack Iran if the ongoing talks to replace the 2015 nuclear deal go nowhere. “We know the enemy completely and are monitoring its movements. Even now, as political contacts and negotiations are underway, we stand with grandeur and firmness, and whoever dares to engage with Islamic Iran will be shattered,” he said.
On May 15, a missile fired by Houthi terrorists from Yemen was intercepted evening hours, the IDF announced. Sirens were activated across central Israel from Jerusalem to Tel Aviv. Missile fragments landed in the settlement of Alon Shvut in the southern West Bank. Magen David Adom said that there were no reports of injuries, except for cases of panic and those who were wounded on the way to the shelter. This is the fifth time the Yemen-based terror group has fired a missile at Israel within the past week, one of which fell short and landed in Saudi Arabia.
On May 15 at 1310 UTC, the Master of a container vessel sailing in the Arabian Gulf reported that the vessel was approached by two small military craft. The military craft hailed the vessel and requested information regarding personnel onboard and the vessel’s next port of call. The Master did not respond to the questions. The small military craft-maintained position off the container vessel’s starboard quarter and continued to hail the vessel on VHF Channel 16. All crew were accounted for and secured inside the accommodation block. Additional mates were present on the bridge.
On May 15, it is stated that Tidjane Thiam was re-elected as head of Côte d’Ivoire’s main opposition party on Wednesday, just days after resigning from the role – and despite being barred from running in the country’s presidential election. Political tensions remain high in Côte d’Ivoire as several opposition figures have been ruled ineligible to stand in the presidential election scheduled for 25 October.
On May 15, paramilitary fighters appear to have opened a new phase in Sudan’s civil war after being driven from the capital, in a move which some experts have described as a “shock and awe campaign”. Just weeks after the army celebrated the recapture of Khartoum, its foe the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) launched a series of unprecedented drone strikes on Port Sudan in the east of the country.
On May 16, the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) will apply a 15% discount on transit fees for 90 days to container ships with a net cargo of 130,000 tons or more, whether loaded or in ballast. The measure, which takes effect May 15, responds to requests from containership owners and operators who are SCA customers. It aims to encourage major shipping lines to resume using the Suez Canal, especially amid what the authority describes as improved safety conditions in the Red Sea region.
On May 16, Ethiopia’s main opposition party has condemned a ban on its activities, saying it posed a “serious threat” to the 2022 peace deal that ended two years of conflict in the northern Tigray region. The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) has called for the African Union to mediate with the federal government after the electoral agency revoked its legal status as a party. The party, which governs Tigray and dominated the entire country for many years, was on Wednesday banned for failing to hold a general assembly.
On May 17, mass media representing US white house briefing is stated that Trump declared, “There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.” So supposedly said the Russian revolutionary leader Vladimir Ilyich Lenin. The diplomatic whirlwind that has surrounded the US President this week suggests the old Bolshevik might have been onto something. He and his team have done business deals in the Gulf; lifted sanctions on Syria; negotiated the release of a US citizen held by Hamas; ended military strikes on Houthi fighters in Yemen ; slashed American tariffs on China; ordered Ukraine to hold talks with Russia in Turkey; continued quiet negotiations with Iran over a nuclear deal; and even claimed responsibility for brokering a ceasefire between India and Pakistan…
On May 17, the Royal Navy is braced for one of its flagship aircraft carriers to be attacked as it travels near territory run by Iran’s allies in Yemen. Plans have been drawn up for F-35 fighter jets to launch strikes against Houthi camps should HMS Prince of Wales come under a bombardment as it passes through a choke point in the Red Sea.
On May 18, several people have been reported killed in a suicide bombing at an army recruitment centre in Somalia’s capital, Mogadishu. The attacker on Sunday targeted a queue of young recruits lining up outside the Damanyo base, killing at least 10 people, the Reuters news agency quoted witnesses as saying.
On May 18, Syrian security forces have killed three ISIL (ISIS) fighters and arrested four others in Aleppo, authorities said, the first time the interim government has announced such an operation against the group in Syria’s second city. The raids, launched by the General Security Department in coordination with the General Intelligence Service, targeted multiple ISIL sleeper cells operating across Aleppo, Syria’s Ministry of Interior said in a statement last Saturday.
On May 19, it is stated by Nigeria Reuters that at least 20,000 people have fled Marte town following increasing attacks by Islamist militants in Nigeria’s northeastern Borno state, its governor has said, four years after residents returned to the town that was once controlled by insurgents.
GEO-political / Geo-Strategic awareness profile: The actions of the Nation’s leaderships is related to the next day influence and cooperation to control sensitive vicinities. At the most cases the influence to the security of shipping are raised by the actions of domestic forces in each area against “the military sea-power” which protect the maritime environment by Defense Security Operations, while the possibility of handling smuggling, illegal embarkation and piracy ensued situations after embarkation doesn’t seem as primary operational mission, having the much lesser likelihood to happen outside of ports and berthing. The two superpowers in Geo-Strategy remains the US and Russia.
Geo-political / Geo-Economy profile: The competition of Financial interests and race among the Economic superpowers has not been defined, yet. In the area of conflicts there are conditions where it is difficult to uncover the sources funding illegal actions as for example the situation in Yemen, where Houthi spend a lot of money to destroy shipping track-routes, while the incomes per capita in the state is about 900$ per capita. Middle East after the Houthi’s attacks was raised up and the Israel-Hamas conflict are two different faces of the same coin, while the Economical changes has not been ensued, yet.
UKMTO has received a report of an incident 100NM east of Aden, Yemen. The Master reports being followed by armed persons in multiple small craft for approximately 2 hours with shots being fired. The Master altered course towards the Yemeni coastline and the small craft subsequently left the vicinity.
13
WARNING
01 May
Validated Issued: 01 May 2025 1110UTC UKMTO has received multiple reports regarding vessels anchored at RAS ISA, Yemen. Vessels have been denied permission to leave despite having UNVIM clearance (UN Verification and Inspection Mechanism for Yemen). These commands from local authorities have in some cases demanded that vessels proceed to berths alongside from their anchorage. These directions are reported to have been issued under threat of violence, with at least one incident of warning shots being fired, and other vessels boarded by armed personnel. These reported incidents reinforce the threat to vessels visiting Houthi controlled ports that they are likely to be held or restricted from safely departing.
14 / 17
ADVISORY
06 May / 11 May
Sustained kinetic activity in the Red Sea area since mid-March 2025, and, in particular recently reported strikes against targets in the vicinity the port of Al Hudaydah, Yemen suggests an ongoing threat from collateral damage to third party vessels. The risks of collateral damage potentially remain, in the event of further strikes against targets in port areas.
15
ADVISORY (ELECTRONIC INTERFERENCE)
09 May
Issued: 9 MAY 2025 UKMTO has received a number of corroborating reports from vessels experiencing GPS interference in the Red Sea within the marked area below, with disruptions lasting several hours, affecting navigation systems and requiring vessels to rely on backup methods. Masters who experience disruption to electronic navigation systems (GPS / AIS / Other PNT) anywhere within the UKMTO Voluntary Reporting Area (VRA) are requested to contact UKMTO watchkeepers via watchkeepers@ukmto.org or 02392 222065.
16
ADVISORY
11 May
UKMTO has received a report of an incident 80NM northwest of Jebel Ali, UAE. The Master reports a small craft colliding with the vessel and was seen attempting to collide with other vessels in the area. Crew from the small craft seen transferred safely to another small craft. Merchant vessel remained on scene for some time before proceeding to next port of call. The MV later experienced VHF messages from an entity claiming to be local authorities requesting them to stop and enable representatives of the claimed authority to board the MV.
18
ADVISORY
12 May
UKMTO recommends vessels exercise extreme caution in the vicinity of ports that have been subjected to strikes already, and, should consider carefully whether the risk of ongoing navigation/operations in those areas remains judicious.
Strategic Maritime Operational security awareness : The most of incidents are related to “Hijack” / “unmanned vehicles” sighting with harassment on Communication/electronic systems and executed by of teams pretending legal authorities near ports and coastline. Even if the possibility of embarkation is restricted there is faint probability an embarkation to happen on a ship being approached by several boats in two vicinities, so far, south Red Sea and Persian Gulf/North of Hormuz straits as in the incidents reports and the following charts show.
THREAT ASSESSMENT UPDATE:
Military operations – terrorism – piracy and also cargo theft, smuggling, stowaways
Military Operations
Red Sea – Yemen
Following the recent Houthis threats to resume attacks on Israeli ships sailing in the High Risk Area that the preemptive attacks were executed even before the Houthis had implemented their threats, highlights Trumps determination and will to deal decisively with the threat targeting merchant shipping in the region and to reaffirm the freedom of navigation in the Suez Canal and the Red Sea.
• It appears that the successive US-UK attacks have influenced the orientation of attacks against shipping activity in the region, without changing their intention to continue launching attacks against Israel. According to events since the end of March, there are new threats to ships approaching the coasts and the wider area of ports controlled by the Houthi which are not related to missiles’ or drones’ attacks.
• Despite the withdrawal declaration of Houthi to avoid attacking Maritime Operations, it is assessed that UK and IAF forces will continue to operate against the next weeks so far as the Houthis military advanced capabilities are totally destroyed or they were forced to renounced their allegiance to Iran and end their pretext support on Hamas and Gaza. Threat assessment due to war / defense nature and demolish of shipping routes: HIGH / MEDIUM.
Gaza-Israel
During the previous period both Israel and Hamas were reluctant in proceeding to the second phase of the agreement, with Israel seeking to extent its sovereignty the first phase in order to secure the release of all hostages and bodies and the complete demilitarization of the Gaza Strip. Hamas on its side, rejected the notion of disarming and leaving Gaza while using the hostages as leverage for the upcoming negotiations. Following the recent stall in negotiations on the second phase of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, and Israel’s failed attempts to force its terms prior to proceeding the next phase, the Israeli government ordered the recommence of military operations against Hamas in Gaza.
The extended first phase of the ceasefire agreement and the overall ceasefire in Gaza, has ended. It is estimated that over the next weeks there will be no return to negotiations with Israel trying to destroy the military capabilities of Hamas and to force it to accept Israeli terms concerning the return of all remaining hostages and the demilitarization of Gaza. Nevertheless, the Israeli Security Council remains steadfast in its view that the war against Hamas must continue until it is ensured that all populations are free from Hamas rule.
The Houthis in retaliation have already unsuccessfully attacked US warships in the Red Sea and Israeli territory with the use of ballistic missiles and drones. There have been no attacks or incidents against any merchant vessel or port yet; nevertheless, the Houthi will almost certainly recommence their disruptive campaign even if at the beginning of this year they disrupt an attack in long distance from their coasts, on East Med, North of Egypt.
It is assessed that Israel will push forward its efforts in dislodging Hamas from the West Bank by force while it will start to erect infrastructure for accommodating the future UN humanitarian aid to the domestic populations.
Threat assessment due to war / defense nature and demolish of shipping routes: HIGH / MEDIUM.
Syria
The current status in Syria is added to the general military conflict not influencing directly the threats in Eastern Mediterranean Sea but as a factor could ignite the Middle East region, affecting directly the East Mediterranean Sea.
It is assessed that former Assad loyalists, Alawite militias and Hezbollah forces still in Syria, instructed and supported by Iran are provoking the clashes aimed at crippling the Syrian Interim Government’s efforts to establish control over Syria. However, the atrocities committed by HTS (Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham) forces during the suppression operations against insurgents in western Syria, have indicated that these forces have not abandoned its recent jihadist past and are raised legitimate questions about whether al-Sharaa has become the predominant group. It is unclear how extensive the dissolve and integration of armed groups across Syria, yet the pace at which this integration occurs, has no increased over the last days with the SDF which control one third of Syrian territory and part of the Druze militia, being the largest of these factions. It is also unclear to what extent these groups will subordinate themselves to largely HTS-dominated command structures. The agreement between Ahmed al-Sharaa and Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) chief Mazloum Abdi, brokered by the United States, marks a turning point for Syria’s unity since the fall of the Assad regime in Dec 2024, as part of a broader effort by interim President al-Sharaa to integrate Kurdish structures into the central state, which includes the integration of all SDF political and military institutions.
The Syrian government’s simultaneous but separate agreements with Druze militias in southern Syria and the SDF in northeastern Syria, indicate its willingness to provide concessions to minority groups. However already there are difficulties with certain parties within the Kurds and the Druze openly disapproving these agreements, while various isolated events such as the murder of the son of the city of Shahnaya Mayor, which is mainly inhabited by Druze, point a gap in a process of normalization.
Over the last days Turkey and HTS coordinated efforts to coerce the SDF to disarm and be integrated into the HTS-led defense apparatus, have led to a historic agreement with of SDF leadership. The recent insurgency in coastal Syria likely influenced the terms that Al Sharaa was willing to compromise on and forced him to retreat to his previously held position regarding terms of military and political integration, leading to a deal beneficial for SDF and not in line with Turkey’s original plans.
Nevertheless, the recent insurgent activity in western Syria and the ensuing conflict that led to severe casualties amongst civilian population has been a significant blow to Syria’s interim President, Ahmed al-Sharah efforts to consolidate his power and reunite Syria under HTS. It is assessed that the recent insurgent activity in western Syria was highly likely ignited by Iran which seeks to exacerbate sectarian tensions in Syria and destabilize the Syrian interim government in order for Hezbollah to reemerge in Syria. The risk for Syria to become another “failed state” in the MENA region is decreasing after the recognition of the regime from the EU and USA.
It is assessed that Turkey, after successfully pacifying the PKK threat within its borders, will increase its efforts to remove the SDF threat from its southern borders by forcing it to totally dissolve and integrate to the new Syrian military. Additionally, Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) attacks on the SDF, suggests that Syrian interim government has limited control over the SNA and indicates that either it has not yet integrated the SNA factions as individuals or it has allowed SNA factions to integrate into the Defense Ministry as blocs. The SNA units will therefore seem to remain loyal to their respective political leaders and Turkey and not necessarily follow the Syrian Defense Ministry chain of command.
The IDF have also begun conducting attacks against Hamas and the Islamic Jihad group in Syria in an effort to neutralize these threats even in Syrian territory and in defiance of the new Syrian Interim Government, which is considered to be hostile towards Israel due to its Islamic and jihadist background. Syrian security forces show an initiative to pursue ISIL fighters with the consequences of this new action being not assumed as far as the risks in the area is concerned.
• Israel will certainly have a pivotal role both in mitigating Turkey’s ambitions, influence and overall foothold in the new Syria on behalf of US, and generally in promoting US objectives in the region. At the same time Israel has recently assumed a hostile posture against the Syrian Interim Government and continuous military operations in order to secure and enforce a buffer zone.
• It is assessed that further Israeli efforts to neutralize Syria as a potential threat, to defend the friendly Druze community and to establish a safe zone during the next weeks, could lead to a new escalation in tensions between Israel and Turkey over the future of Syria, since their interests are colliding. It is highly likely that the US will try to play a mediator role to improve the relations between Turkey and Israel, avoiding any further tensions.
• Threat assessment due to war / defense nature and demolish of shipping routes: MEDIUM / “NCR” (not concerning).
Lebanon
Overall, the ceasefire in Lebanon was maintained even though from time-to-time IDF forces had conducted minor strikes against selected targets within Southern Lebanon. The IDF has withdrawaled from Southern Lebanonwith the exception of 5 specific key outposts and the Lebanese Armed Forces – LAF has backfilled the IDF previous held positions. Hezbollah’s military capabilities and assets in Lebanon remain low and there is no indication of resurgence. In addition, the Lebanese government’s intention to enforce a state monopoly on arms will not only inhibit the rearming of Hezbollah but will gradually lead to the eviction of this organization from Lebanon.
Threat assessment due to war / defense nature and demolish of shipping routes: MEDIUM / “NCR”.
Sudan-Eritrea
A violent power struggle in northern Ethiopia’s Tigray region risks sparking another civil war in Ethiopia, which could, in turn, expand quickly to include Eritrea. Reaffirm conflict in Tigray or between Ethiopia and Eritrea would generate an economic, humanitarian, and security crisis that would have reverberations across Africa and even into Europe.
After more than two years of brutal conflict, Sudan’s civil war appears to have entered a bone-breaking phase, marked by intensified attacks and a hardening of rival power structures. The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) are now fighting not only for territory, but for political legitimacy, as both sides escalate military operations across the country. Fighting has surged in key strongholds, especially in Darfur and Kordofan, where the RSF is pressing ahead with plans to form a parallel government.
External powers, such as Iran, UAE and Russia, have demonstrated interest in exploiting conflict in the region to consolidate their own influence around the Red Sea. Salafi-jihadi groups would benefit from such crises as well, given that it would produce a wall of instability across Africa, stretching from the Sahel to the Horn of Africa while the external support which the Ethiopia seeks to receive from Iran after the sign of MOU at the beginning of this month is assumed it will be precious support for the aforementioned campaign.
Threat assessment due to war / defense nature and demolish of shipping routes: HIGH / MEDIUM.
Terrorism – piracy and also cargo theft, smuggling, stowaways
The reemergence of terrorists group associated with ISIS and Al Qaeda in Syria since Nov 2024, has enhanced the terrorist threat level across the East Mediterranean Sea. Nevertheless, the risk of open conflict between these groups and the HTS has recently forced certain groups to lay down their arms and join with HTS.
JMIC over the last weeks has received information from regional partners regarding pirate activity off the coast of Somalia and recommends merchant vessels to remain vigilant when transiting these waters and make necessary precautions according to Best Management Practices and industry guidelines, having armed guards onboard.
Since the clash of wars and attacks they have been formulated two main threats for the Maritime industry, the Defense/Military against Military with side-effects to Merchant ships and the Maritime Operational Security’s threats due to the “Demolition of shipping track-routes” (Dstr-Destroy), these threats have a significant “footprint” in Geopolitics.
RISK ASSESSMENT
Gulf of Guinea
The risk of attacks or incidents and perils for safety in the area is MODERATE / MODERATE.
The Gulf of Guinea, long regarded as the international piracy hotspot, was overtaken in the first quarter of the year by the Singapore Strait. The Gulf of Guinea, which stretches from Senegal to Angola, has become a major hotspot of piracy in recent years. This has had a significant impact on maritime trade and regional security. These include armed attacks against vessels, hostage situations that last for a long time, and theft of valuable cargoes, such as crude oil and petroleum.
The attacks of Islamist militants in Nigeria pushed a large amount of people to abandon the city of Marte and the instability political situation arises due to the re-election in the Ivory Coast of president Tidjane Thiam, creates an imminent sign of risking enhancement. Even if there is no war there are conditions as war like situation that’s why the threat is assessed due to war / defense nature and demolish of shipping routes: HIGH / LOW.
East Mediterranean Sea
The risk of attacks or incidents and perils for safety in the East Mediterranean Sea after last week’s events for the time being is assessed “NCR”/MODERATE with the exception for Israeli, US and UK ships and Israeli ports where the risk is MAJOR.
After the US deal with the Houthis to accept a ceasefire, with exception of Israel, attacks against shipping in the East Mediterranean remains LOW.
The emerging insurgency in coastal Syria and the terrorist groups and other uncharted armed groups in northern and western part of the country, pose a threat to the region’s security environment and could potentially be dangerous for merchant shipping security along the Syrian coastline and ports. It is not clear yet if the new Syrian Government has established a total control on the Syrian ports.
Any port call in Israel should be arranged after a direct contact with the Israeli authorities.
The recent situation in Libya after the clashes in the capital of Tripoli and the established factions in northern and western Libya, pose a threat to the region’s maritime security and could potentially be dangerous for merchant shipping security along the Libya coastline and ports. Security situation is assessed MEDIUM to HIGH.
Finally, merchant vessels that participate in any way in Russian oil exports against the established sanctions are in danger of being targeted and attacked with limpet mines or other sabotage devices mainly in the Black Sea. In addition, an escalation in attacks against merchant shipping around Ukrainian ports and territorial waters is expected over the following period as far as the war in Ukraine has not ended yet. It has to be taken under consideration that the Caspian Pipeline Consortium – CPC in Novorossiysk exports also oil from Kazakhstan, which could be easily misinterpreted by adversaries as Russian oil export and target ships by mistake.
Israel – Hamasconflict
The risk of attacks or incidents and perils for safety in Israel coasts is MAJOR/”NCR”. It is assessed that over the next period Israel will intensify its military operations trying to destroy the military capabilities of Hamas in order to be able to enter future negotiations on even favorable terms. Eventually it is highly likely that Israeli efforts to secure the release of all hostages and bodies prior and to raise the issue of Hamas eviction, in order to achieve the demilitarization of the Gaza Strip. Additionally, it is expected that the countries mediating indirect negotiations will again intervene in order to achieve a new ceasefire, in order to avoid the escalation of the humanitarian crisis.
It is not certain anymore if the US Administration fully supports Israel’s military operations to establish a full control over the Gaza Strip.
In addition, the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has ordered the IDF to resume and intensify military operations in the West Bank in order to pacify remaining Hamas and Islamic Jihad.
It is assessed that the US President’s “bold” proposed plan for US to take control of the Gaza Strip in order to be rebuilt and the relocation of Palestinians to other Arab countries, even though it has been rejected by most of the Arab countries, is gradually moving forward as the only solution to the geopolitical stalemate in the Middle East. It is also assessed that the Trump administration will find little difficulty in applying the “required” pressure to the Arab states and especially to Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Jordan in order to advance US goals in the region.
Syria
The risk of attacks or incidents and perils for safety in Syria and Lebanon coasts is MODERATE/”NCR”. Recent HTS-led interim government’s efforts in the northern, southern and eastern parts of Syria to dissolve former opposition forces and integrate them into the new Syrian Defense Ministry have so far proved successful and have increased its political power.
Iran and Turkey’s opposing interests and policies in Syria and other parts of the region could increase fissures in the Iran-Turkey relationship. Over the next period Turkey having achieved to pacify the Kurdish populations within its borders and to bring an end to a 40-year conflict, will continue to pacify all surrounding Kurdish populations (which Turkey reviews as part of the PKK) in Syria, Iraq and Iran, in order to achieve its strategic objective of removing any possibility of establishing a state or a self-governed semi-autonomous area of Kurdish origin to its borders.
Turkey, HTS and Interim Syrian Government cooperation is constantly deepening their relation and it is assessed that Turkey has already incorporated Syria into its close allies, as it did with the West Libya GNA government. Turkish construction of Menagh Airbase in Aleppo district, may hamper negotiations between the Kurdish parties and the interim Syrian government as Turkey continues airstrikes on SDF positions in Syria. It is assessed that relations with Turkey, Qatar and Saudi Arabia are already at a high level, with the rest of the Arab states following at a lower level. Egypt considers HTS as a potential threat due to its ties with Turkey and the Muslim Brotherhood and has reluctantly invited Syria back to the Arab League Council in an effort to remove Syria from Turkey’s foothold.
Over the next period it is also expected that the influence of Saudi Arabia in Syria and the overall region will increase, acting as a secondary pillar for the US objectives and policies. The recent meeting of US President Trump with Ahmed Al-Sharaa signals the recognition of the new interim government by the US. It is assessed that the US President will not withdraw any US forces currently stationed in Syria in order to reassure SDF.
It is unclear if Russia has definitely lost its bases in Syria. It is assessed that for the time being, Russia will maintain a minimum number of forces in Syria after having moved many fighting units back to Russia. However, it is expected that in the long-term Russia will try to establish a new naval and air base into the Mediterranean basin (either in East Libya, Tunisia or Algeria) as well as in Sudan, in order to assure its presence in those regions.
The international community is already engaging and interacting with the Interim government in Syria and sanctions are gradually being lifted. However, in view of recent event in western Syria, the EU and most countries remain uncertain and intend to wait for this government to show its true intentions on how will build and run the future Syrian State, and also on how it will interact with other countries. Over the last two months, the interim Syrian Government has successfully established lines of communication and reinvigorated diplomatic relations with Turkey, most Arab states, the US and EU.
Lebanon
The risk of attacks or incidents and perils for safety in Lebanon coasts is MODERATE/”NCR” due to the non-stabilized conditions on the North and South.
In Lebanon over the next period, it is assessed that Hezbollah military will be gradually but steadily evicted by the Lebanese army (LAF) which has backfilled IDF previous held positions, according to the agreement that followed the ceasefire period which ended on Feb 18. The agreement which permits IDF to maintain control of 5 key outposts within Lebanon will provide the future base for Israel to come to terms with the new Lebanon leadership. Hezbollah requires time and support from Iran to rebuild and reorganize. It is assessed that under current circumstances in the region it is highly unlikely in the near future for Hezbollah to regain its military capabilities as well as to assume significant operations against either Israeli forces in Lebanon and Syria, or Israeli territory.
Suez Canal – Northern Red Sea
The risk of attacks or incidents and perils for safety at the Suez Canal and the Northern Red Sea for the time being is assessed MODERATE/MODERATE, except Israeli vessels for which is MAJOR.
The recently renewed Houthi attacks against Israel after the collapse of the ceasefire with Hamas has escalate the risk for ships being berthed at Eilat port or transiting the Gulf of Aqaba with Eilat being the port of call.
The risk for merchant shipping transiting the Gulf of Aqaba if vessels are heading for Jordanian, Egyptian or Saudi Arabian ports and with no Israeli ties, is assessed to be MODERATE, since the Houthis have a non-attack agreement with the US and are avoiding to attack any Arab state port in the region.
The ongoing discussions under the media radar between US and Iran creates for the time being a de-escalatory environment around the Arabic Peninsula. Taking also into account the latest statements from the Iranian leadership in which they are distancing themselves from the Houthis, creates a safer and more stable environment for the international shipping.
This positive evolution of the situation led to a small increase in the number of merchant vessels transiting through the Suez Canal the recent weeks. It is expected that the security situation in the High-Risk Area will improve more as far as negotiations between US – Iran and US – Houthis are heading towards a compromise. Trust will take some time to be rebuilt for safe passages through the Red Sea, Bab-el Mandeb and the Gulf of Aden.
Finally, due to the “opportunity” for discount in passage fees of the Suez Canal, taking into consideration the pause of attacks against the Houthis, the diminishing of attacks for “destroy” against merchant vessels in conjunction with the capabilities of extra services available in the area to mitigate the risks for security of shipping due to the piracy and electronic/communication/navigational harassment, it is assumed that this “opportunity” in conjunction with risks mitigation could rise the flow of shipping though Red Sea.
Bab-el-Mandeb Straits – Southern Rea Sea
In view of the recent escalation between Israel and the Houthis, it is highly likely assessed that the vessels of Israeli direct or indirect interest are targets of priority, and could be attacked at a short notice.
International Maritime Operations “US-UK PROSPERITY GUARDIAN” and “EU ASPIDES”, although the security situation has improved, will continue patrolling the area on high readiness.
Recent intelligence on turmoil in Sudan-Ethiopia and Eritrea is assessed to be alarming and should move the shipping industry to enhance its security posture while transiting or visiting ports along in this coastline, especially while visiting Port Soudan.
An electronic harassment risks for ship’s navigation and electronic/communication safety has been reappeared in the area mainly for ships near the coastline or in the ports dominated by Houthi in conjunction with the approaching of ships by boats manned with armed crew pretending official state’s officers.
The re-appearance of suicide bombing incidents in Somalia could provoked the activities of piracy to be enhanced as is showed the pre-willingness for insurgents to take risks.
Gulf of Aden
The eastern part of the Gulf of Aden is still assessed to be the one of the most hazardous areas for international shipping, with no significant incident occurring during last period. This creates expectations for a better security situation while sailing in the international corridor.
It is assessed that the naval units of the USN and the RN along with the warships of international maritime Operation “PROSPERITY GUARDIAN” and “EU ASPIDES” will continue patrolling the area in high readiness.
Recent information from regional partners regarding piracy activity off the coast of Somalia is assessed to be alarming and should move the shipping industry to enhance its security posture.
Arabian Sea – Gulf of Oman
The risk of attacks or incidents and safety perils is MODERATE/”NCR” at the Arabian Sea and the Gulf of Oman.
Hormuz Straits – Persian Gulf
The risk of attacks or incidents and safety perils is MODERATE/ MODERATE at the Hormuz Straits and the Persian Gulf. For the time being is assessed MODERATE due to the risks of armed teams presenting official services asks for embarkation (security of shipping risks) and electronic/communication/navigational assets’ harassment (safety risks).
Malacca Straits
The risk of attacks or incidents and safety perils is MAJOR/MAJOR due to the significant enhancement of incidents.
• The incidents during the first quarter of this year were enhanced while it is well known that the piracy groups in the area are very experienced on these kinds of actions as well as the kidnapping and smuggling are more frequent than other “hot areas”. Even if the Malacca Straits Council has taken new initiatives by inviting the Japan for the next actions against the piracy and related to, it is assumed that the merchant ships should pay more attention by own and their companies’ interests.
Piracy – Boarding conditions
During this semester, since the clash of conflicts and attacks there have no “boarding incidents”, in several circumstances there were signs of effort for boarding in the Persian Gulf and near to the vicinity of Houthis’ control ports while it has been appeared a new threat for the safety by electronic/communications/ navigational systems harassment.
OVERALL ASSESSMENT
During the first trimester of this year there have been constant shifts in the geopolitical situation and security environment in the Middle East region at an unpresented speed and rate most of which has to do with US President’s Donald Trump “unorthodox way” in dealings with foreign policy issues and overwhelming “battle rhythm” in comparison to most Heads of States worldwide. Already the US President has actively begun to implement the next three US goals, firstly, to end the war in Gaza, secondly to bring an end to the Houthis, Hamas and Hezbollah and thirdly to complete the “Abraham Accords” which he considers to be his own vision and work.
Over the next period the US will undoubtedly increase their efforts in putting an end to the Israeli-Hamas-Palestinian Authority conflict over the Gaza Strip and will try to establish a lasting solution that will bring peace and stability in the region, while at the same time is negotiating with Iran for a new nuclear deal.
Syria has begun to reemerge as a sovereign state in the region but still the way ahead is full of uncertainties. After the recognition of the interim Syrian government by the EU and the US, the risk for Syria to become another “failed state” in the MENA region, following the footsteps of Libya and Iraq has been significantly reduced. It remains for Israel to establish a buffer zone in southwestern Syria by exploiting the presence of the Druze in order to have a more stable geopolitical situation in the Middle East.
Turkey has finally achieved in its goal to pacify the PKK threat and to demolish Kurdish Independence aspirations within its borders. Over the last period the respective foothold of both Turkey and Israel over Syria has increased bringing ever closer these two countries in a possible standoff over supremacy in the region. In contrast Iran has made a failed last attempt to reassert its foothold in Syria.
Although the Houthis have reduced the attacks against shipping, especially in the current semester of this year, new profile of threats has appeared related to the communication/electronic/navigational aids and small boat manned with armed crew pretending authorities’ services, requesting to embark for auditing purposes.
Egypt tries to enhance the flow of maritime traffic through Suez-Canal as it assumes that the threats in the Red-Sea are diminishing.
It is assessed that over the next period, the Houthis will highly likely attack Israeli interest vessels, traveling to and from Israel or affiliated with Israeli entities.
It is assessed that the recent course of events will challenge global firms and ship-owners to re-enter in the Red Sea and the Suez Canal at all types of ships and cargos.
It is also assessed that the risk of entering Israeli ports is still HIGH.
The matter of returning the flow of merchant shipping through the region to its previous volume which is linked with the progression of US efforts in maintaining the overall stability and security in the region will be determined over the next weeks or months. Trust has to be rebuilt.
New uncertainties are coming up in Gulf of Guinea and Malacca Straits in Indonesia. These areas are under close-monitoring for the next weeks.
Sea Guardian S.G. Ltd / Intel Department (www.sguardian.com / +30 6944373465) can support your operational planning, assist in determining the risk assessment and provide assistance in decision making by producing tailored made assessments upon request on ports in the region, on routes, on cargos and specific merchant vessels. You can refer to our previous Threat & Risk assessment analysis briefs for more information and background analysis on the events and situation in the region.
Notes:
WAR/DEFENCE THREATS: Threats that appears due to military activity against military of merchant as side-effect
MARITIME OPERATIONAL SECURITY THREATS:Threats which are related to attacks by military or military like weapons to merchant ships which “demolish shipping track routes”.
SHIPPING SECURITY RISKS: Risk ensued by the actions of “boarding related crime-kindling”.
SAFETY / UNDEFINED RISKS: Risks that is not been cleared for their aim as well as risks to electronic/communication/navigational systems which could create situations of “course diversions”.
Probability:A factor is decided by the incidents of the past either in recent years or in the current years which gives a factor or reduction or enhancement influencing the evaluation of threats and risks and insert in the impact an added trend.
Impact to insurance & security:A causative advice to the high management for being considered in its decision making to plan the related assets of their ships or the use of these routes.
Sea Guardian S.G. Ltd / Intel Department (www.sguardian.com / +30 6944373465) cansupport your operational planning, assist in determining the risk assessment and provide assistance in decision making by producingtailored made assessments upon requeston ports in the region, on routes, on cargos and specific merchant vessels. You can refer to our previous Threat & Risk assessment analysis briefs for more information and background analysis on the events and situation in the region.
