- FTSE 100 flat at the open
- NatWest punished for going for growth
- Barclays delivered a comfortable beat and upbeat guidance
- TSMC posts strong revenue growth, positive read across for Nvidia
- Profit taking across a host of commodity markets
- TUI profits fly past expectations
- BP scraps the buyback
Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst, Hargreaves Lansdown:
“The FTSE 100 opened flat this morning, struggling to take its lead from a broadly constructive tone across global markets after a steadier run of risk appetite overnight. Yesterday’s session was dragged lower by NatWest, which fell around 6% after announcing the acquisition of UK wealth manager Evelyn Partners, a move that felt like a sharp overreaction. The sell-off appeared driven by concerns over a premium purchase price and a potential hit to near-term buybacks, but it arguably misses the bigger picture. Excess capital has two purposes – returning cash to shareholders and investing for future growth – and the market looks overly fixated on the former at the expense of long-term value creation.
There’s plenty moving across UK and European markets today, with BP and TUI highlighting very different themes. BP’s fourth-quarter results showed resilience in a weak pricing backdrop, while TUI impressed with first-quarter profits well ahead of expectations, keeping the group firmly on course for steady profit growth this year (more on both stories below).
Barclays has put in a strong showing this morning, beating profit expectations, posting a firmer capital position and lifting its longer-term targets above market forecasts. Top-line performance was led by US card spending and a solid investment banking performance, with trading holding up well against peers even as advisory fees lagged, helping offset higher costs. With its capital buffer ahead of expectations and management targeting returns above 14% by 2028 alongside more than £15 billion of shareholder payouts, the results point to growing confidence in the strategy. Investors should be pleased with these results, delivering better profits and clearer momentum while still trading at a discount to European rivals.
TSMC’s January sales figures were strikingly strong, pointing to accelerating momentum in the AI hardware buildout and offering a clear positive read-across for Nvidia, which features on our Five Shares to Watch list for 2026. TSMC revenues jumped 37% year on year and nearly 20% month on month, well above seasonal norms, with first-quarter sales now tracking ahead of market expectations. That strength is consistent with robust demand for AI servers and faster build rates, reinforcing confidence in Nvidia’s near-term outlook ahead of its late‑February results. Set against already eye-catching capital spending plans from mega-cap technology firms, there’s no shortage of evidence that Nvidia’s earnings trajectory remains exceptionally strong.
It’s a sea of red for commodities this morning, with gold, copper and oil all softer as investors lock in profits and weigh geopolitical risk against a cooling growth and policy outlook. Brent is hovering near $69 a barrel on US–Iran tensions and uncertainty over India’s Russian crude imports, while gold slipped below $5,030 on profit-taking ahead of key US data, and copper eased as Chinese demand slows into the Lunar New Year, underscoring volatile near-term momentum despite longer-term structural support.”
The author holds shares in Nvidia.
Aarin Chiekrie, equity analyst, Hargreaves Lansdown:
“TUI continues to deliver for holidaymakers and investors alike, as first-quarter profits landed 22% ahead of market expectations at a record €77.1mn. The stellar performance was driven by its cruise business, which saw profits jump 70.8% higher. Consumers continue to prioritise travel, which has seen TUI’s occupancy rates rise despite its fleet expansion. All other business segments saw profitability improve over the period, except Hotels & Resorts, which suffered a double-digit decline due to losses resulting from the Jamaican Hurricane, and the non-repeat of some one-off benefits last year.
Looking to the rest of the year, bookings in its Markets and Airline (M+A) segment was down 1% and 2% for winter and summer, respectively. While this looks concerning on a headline level, TUI says it’s in line with its risk capacity reduction strategy, which involves reducing its own capacity and selling this first before turning to third-party inventory. As a result, the M+A division is still expecting strong growth in underlying operating profit. On top of that, all full-year guidance has been maintained. As long as macroeconomic conditions don’t deteriorate, TUI looks to be on the right flight path to grow underlying operating profits by between 7-10% this year, in line with guidance.”
Derren Nathan, head of equity research, Hargreaves Lansdown:
“BP’s fourth-quarter results showed relative resilience in a weak pricing environment. Net debt is down again after a spike in the third quarter, but on a 12-month view, it’s not budged much. Management is taking some decisive action to fix the balance sheet, scrapping the buyback, doubling down on non-core disposals and upping structural cost-savings targets to $5.5-6.5bn by the end of next year.
In an effort to clear the decks ahead of the arrival of new CEO Meg O’Neill on 1st April, BP’s also written down its underperforming solar and renewable natural gas businesses by around $4bn. This leaner meaner approach could pave the way for more sustainable payouts to shareholders further down the line, but with investment spend coming down, investors will want some assurance on BP’s plans to remain an energy leader over the long-term.”
