Dr. Platon Monokroussos, Chief Market Economist, Deputy General Manager, Eurobank Ergasias S.A
Greece Macro Monitor (24 September 2014)
How feasible is an early exit from the IMF lending program
Summary
Heading to the inception of official talks in the context of Greece’s next (5th) program review[1], market uncertainty about their evolution and, most importantly, the timing and the potential structure of a new debt relief package by official lenders has been on the rise. Further clouding the near term outlook is a demanding program review agenda and a number of important milestones that could potentially affect, to a greater or lesser extent, the negotiations process along the way. Among others, these include the announcement of the EU-wide stress test results on October 26, the asymmetric time profile of remaining EFSF and IMF loan disbursements[2], a number of key votes in the Greek Parliament as well as the election of the new President of the Hellenic Republic by early next year. In our September 19, 2014 Greece Macro Monitor we analyzed the agenda of the next program review and presented a brief timeline of key dates and events in the crucial six months ahead. In the present note we touch upon a number of additional issues, including the timing and structure of the expected debt relief package as well as the nature of relationship between the Greek State and the troika after the European part of the present lending program expires.
[1] According to Greek press reports, the heads of the troika mission will return to Athens on September 29, 2014, with discussion with domestic authorities in the context of the 5th program review expected to incept the day after.
[2] As per Greece’s current (2nd) bailout program, the last EFSF loan disbursement is due upon completion of the next (5th) program review, while the last IMF loan release is scheduled for the end of Q1 2016.
Viewers can log herebelow and read the full report: GREECE MACRO FOCUS, September 24, 2014
