Home NewsContainer shipping Shipping Market’s downfall reaches its …”climax”… amidst continued geopolitical chaos…

Shipping Market’s downfall reaches its …”climax”… amidst continued geopolitical chaos…

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John Faraclas

John Faraclas

Our forty-sixth weekly recapitulation of the shipping markets, their respective main indices and world geopolitics affecting same in 2015 and beyond, tonight Friday the 13th of November 2015, with John Faraclas of AllAboutShipping in London.

  • The BDI, the Baltic Dry Index, closed down 19 points since yesterday Thursday the 12th of November at 560 points, which is 71 points down since last week’s 631  points, re-confirming unfortunately our predictions! Now this 560 points is far below the December 2013 closing of 2, 274 points, a difference of 1, 714 points! Be on guard…and look to the best experts on the risk assessment front…
  • The BCI was down 72 points at 809, which  is 194 points down since last week’s 1, 003; another major dive!
  • The BPI was 20 points down at 514 points which is 89 points down since last week when it stood at 603 points…, not good at all, even if this is the best and most promising, in our view, size!
  • The BSI was 10 points down since yesterday at 523, which is 58 points down since last week’s 571 points,
  • The BHSI was also down, but just three points, at 304 which is 19 points down since last week’s 323 points. –The markets dried out completely and this is a fact!
  • The wets now and the last published indices: Dirties and its BDTI index stood at 853, just one point up, which is 31 points up since last week’s 822 points.
  • The Cleans and the respective BCTI was up seven points at  512 points which is 59 points plus since last week’s 461 points. All in all a far better picture as the winter bites…

On the Ship Sale and Purchase front, as mentioned last week “things are rolling favourably to those with cash resources and able to obtain newbuildings – even series of 5 to 10 ships at very good prices, specs and extras! Same applies price-wise on second-hand five year old units after being… rectified following their first specials… Technology and fuels (bunkers modus) also dictate the major changes and a new era in propulsion given the advent of LNG! Having said that, we eagerly wait to see the progress in major ports around the world to be ready with their LNG bunkering terminals! Good business for all and the environment!”

The price of oil dropped close to US$40 and this is now very serious …

On the geopolitics front things continue in an expanding mess:

  • The migrants issue as we said last week has really begun… Nothing really productive leading to a solution happened at the EUROPEAN summit in Malta. Very simply: more mess! SHAME!!! As we stressed last week “The politicians continue to make it far worse. Here is an example that Europe is in a total mess. Can America give a helping hand? A big SHAME to all politicians. They must all sit in the dock for crimes against humanity, particularly with the way they handle the Turkish factor. All immigrants must be checked and verified in Turkey and not in Greece. Same applies in Libya. Equally Italy must press for this!  We reiterate the fact that Turkey must get its act together and given the results of its elections last weekend (now two weeks ago) with Davutoglou gaining an overwhelming but dangerous majority, the Turks must comply in all aspects with international law and European thinking – if they ever wish to enter the EU! Enough of the Turkish blackmail!” So what next? For how long this situation will be prolonged and who will pay for the repercussions?
  • Iran as we said last week must come to terms with an appropriate behaviour to its immediate neighbours and the rest of the world!
  • The Palestinian issue, given the mess also in the entire Middle East region and the inhumane terrorist suicide bombers in Beirut  a few days ago, MUST be solved, otherwise more chaos for all !
  • In Greece things are getting worse every single second. What a palaver were the latest strikes and demo yesterday in Athens and other Greek cities! Time for SYRIZA to let go… Nothing works and nothing will work with this particular government and all that surrounds Greece and its people if they continue a) not proceeding to reforms and punishment (as soon as possible to all those who wrecked Greece and embezzled public money AND bad loans…) and b) to negotiate with this current team of Ministers and their cronies… ENOUGH!  Alike last and the week before, we repeat our message: “On top of this we are passing him (we mean the Minister of Shipping)  the message: HANDS OFF the SPF* (NAT) and organise the pensioners without any silly delay to receive what they are due too. He must also explain this to his Prime Minister and the European lenders; we can unsolicited assist him on these issues. Hope he gets the message or else one day… Again do please read the comment of last week on the other issues… he has to confront…”
  • The Ukrainian saga continues particularly as we have a bit of a silence… and the debt issues of Ukraine, despite European and American support, are yet to be overcome…
  • Russia’s submarine power and destruction cannot be dismissed or ignored and what we have seen in the media were an on purpose demonstration of what President Putin’s armed forces can do – that’s since the late Andrei Sakharov days of course….
  • Germany, the most financially powerful nation in Europe honoured Wolfgang Schäuble for his contribution in the political life of his country… It remains to be seen how Germany and Schäuble will create a pragmatic solution for Greece AND Europe as a whole, and then they can, if they can, honour him yet again! The potential BREXIT too is a challenge or even better the negos with Great Britain..
  • Will Suu Kyi’s overwhelming win in Myanmar – what a historic election that was… open the Pandora’s box of revelations… for yet another political tsunami in the region…?
  • China: difficult days again appear as there are claims of widespread Chinese torture in police detention… Did I hear you say Democracy? Things should ease in China as otherwise they might backfire… On the economic front, caution is still there…
  • On the Islamic State now, following Jihadi John’s claimed termination by US-led drones, be on guard as we are heading to end the mess in the region, but we have a long way to go! An expensive decision is of course to move in, but professional generals know how; so let the politicians and the diplomats stay on the side; we had enough…
  • The Syrian saga must end. We all know this is also a proxy war in the region but…  Enough with hypocrites!
  • In Africa now Boko Haram must be also terminated; too much mess will surface if vested interests in the region don’t move in swiftly… Add also the ban of Egyptian flights by Russia…another mess there following the terrorists’ inhumane action to down the plane!
  • We remind you of last week’s words here: “The world enters a recession but the politicians and their cronies ignore it on purpose. The credit issue and mess from the credit cards spending have spiralled world-wide with incalculable repercussions!” So what next!
  • We remind you that the Poseidon Med Stakeholders Conference is due on Thursday 19 November 2015 at Zappeion in Athens, Greece. Not to be missed!
  • The 40th anniversary of Intermodal Europe takes place in Hamburg Messe on the 17-19 November; don’t miss it either!
  • Finally, we continue to invite the world to visit Greece and its islands even at this time of the year; that will counter as a plus the troubles Greece and its people are still going through; add the migrants issue. We repeat that Greece is for all seasons! We will also continue to repeat the fact that the Turkish government by allowing the traffickers to move the migrants to the Greek islands not only spoils Greece’s tourism but will eventually create the worst explosion in the East Med… Let’s see what Europe does to Turkey and relax their leaders so we all avoid the big clash! Bluffing with the Turks as Germany and France as well as other countries in Europe and the US do, will only make things worse. We cannot accept any further Turkish blackmail! It seems that Europe over the last 200 years doesn’t have a clue on how to deal with the Turks!

Now think about visiting Syros in the Cyclades being also the capital and try your luck. On the other side in the North Ionian Sea try Othoni, Erikoussa and Mathraki, the Diapontia islets of Greece, six miles off Corfu, where the weather is still fine! On the other side of Europe try a holiday in Portugal; see a relevant article by Graciete Amaro in the site…

*SPF (Seamens Pension Fund (NAT)

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