Dr. Platon Monokroussos, Chief Market Economist, Deputy General Manager, Eurobank Ergasias S.A
HIGHLIGHTS
WORLD ECONOMIC & MARKET DEVELOPMENTS
GLOBAL MARKETS: The USD was modestly firmer in European trade on Monday, especially against commodity-related currencies, followingFriday’s positive US non-farm payrolls report. Even though the headline rose by less than anticipated in January, the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to a fresh multi-year low while average hourly earnings remained in an upward trend, suggesting that the prospect of a Fed rate hike at the upcoming monetary policy meeting in March, cannot be ruled out completely.
GREECE: The first round of official talks between the Greek authorities and the EC/ECB/IMF/ESM mission heads in the context of the 1st programme review concluded on Friday. According to Greece’s Minister of Finance Euclid Tsakalotos, there was an agreement between the two sides on the “basis structure” of the planned social security pension and income tax reform adding that more progress is needed “on technical and political level”. According to the government official, the mission heads will hopefully return in a reasonable time frame and both sides focus their efforts on completing the review by February 26-28.
SOUTH EASTERN EUROPE
BULGARIA: The domestic stock market ended little changed on a weekly basis on Friday, with trade volumes remaining thin as the positive impact from better than expected 2015 corporate results ran out of steam. At the same time, the local currency denominated government bonds also closed little changed and Eurobonds were well supported at the beginning of the week though lost some ground later on.
ROMANIA: The RON deprecation trend evidenced over the past couple of months reversed last week as worries over the region subsided, with the EUR/RON dropping from a 4.4600 Monday open (and week’s high) to a week’s low of 4.4920 on Friday’s close. The Central Bank’s (NBR) meeting on Friday had no market impact as the decision to stay put on its monetary policy has been widely priced in by financial markets.
SERBIA: The EUR/RSD slid to 122.25/45 on Friday’s close ending the week modestly lower and well below a 123.40/60 1-year high hit a few sessions earlier.
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Daily Overview February 8 2016
