John Faraclas
With 17 points plus the BDI closed earlier this afternoon at 517 points, “thanks” to the otherwise volatile and unpredictable” Capers who “stole” the show… John Faraclas reports on the Shipping Markets latest projections and Geopolitics affecting same for both the short and long run:
The Capers, the most volatile of all sizes saw its respective index the BCI 2014 gain 85 points, approaching the three figure one, which could possibly improve the market, but only a bit! The 562 points looks promising, but will it continue for both the sort and long term? Remember: One or two sizes do not constitute a healthy market; end of the story! I am cynical, employ irony and abrupt on these issues, as many, as they are branded from antiquity – the hoi polloi, built and live on hopes for their clients and it’s not fair!
Panamaxes could not get anywhere near the Capasize’s increase and only fetched eight points with the BDI standing at 627!
The Supras and the Handies continued their slow-on-slow three and two points rise respectively standing at 485 (BSI) and 282 (BHSI)… As said: we need another 1, 800 points to see the BDI making waves! Any objection?
Still a very difficult market and wonder how many will be able, listed or unlisted to go further. You better ask some law firms of what’s up for grabs and then make up your mind. You might also see what’s happening with the shipyards worldwide, with …minor exemptions as no shipbuilding activity takes place as it should, given the new rules, technological advantages, and obviously extremely low prices; the ideal buyers’ dry market to go and order tonnage!
The wets on a minus modus; the last published BDTI and BCTI closed down at 774 (minus 12 ) and 494 (minus one) respectively.
Container shipping has a future despite the hiccups you read. Remember it is not oly that size matters, sizes matter; new designs should soon surface and change the picture all together for the benefit of all! Containershipping is Planet Ocean’s blood-livehood! Containers are the safets modus of carrying nearly most of cargoes enhancing the ergonomics of intermodalism and supply chain. You need though a total streamline of the entire industry.
LNG will also add in a multiple way to a better picture and financialy viable shipping adventures!
The price of oil, the WTI as you read these lines struggles to maintain the US$ 37 level… caution, caution caution.
On the Geopolitical front now:
The Migrants palaver continues; we stand by all our reports so far on the World’s number one issue. Shame to all Politicians and Organisations world-wide for their pathetic attitude, gross lies and lack of having a RWAD in place (Ready Willing and Able to Deliver). The World, the EU in this instance with the Migrants crossing over from Blackmailer Turkey over to Europe was never properly ready with a plan. See what happens right now as you read these lines: in Syria only, with the flair-up of the hostilities, more and more will leave, so not only the EU-Turkey agreement is null and void and unworkable – luck of personnel to do the identifications, observe the asylum seekers’ status etc., etc., but above all lack of any coherent policy and strategy – they never heard of risk assessment procedures, so be on guard! Things will turn nasty. Just see that the Migrants do not wish to return to Turkey; they occupied the Greek ports, not only in the Eastern Aegean Greek Islands, but what about in Pireaus – Greece’s major port, on the eve of Greek Easter and the start of the High Touristic Season. It will affect all if we do not act as Oliver Cromwell and Alexander the Great! Remind you our proposition for a total Naval Blockade of the entire Turkish Mediterranean Coast! As the Migrants issue gets worse and conversly the influx continues, wonder whether the Military and Security Forces of all nations involved in this palaver don’t feel humiliated from the politicians pathetic policy and by the way: where is the dignity of all involved on this issue? Do Charities and NGO’s have a real effect? Can they talk with their “counterparts” in the discussed region? Involving Religious Leaders for Peace is one thing, implementation yet another! Most of the above derives from the news they offer us via well known media; s h a m e ! Some NGO’s and “symphathisers” of the Migrants create more havoc and one wonders: who’s in power? Is there any legitimacy? Imagine if “symphathisers” have their view on how to berth a ship in a port contrary to the rules, regulations and laws, then do we need a Harbour Master?
Tax havens are in the spotlight and under the magnifier of the otherwise “naïve” clever dicks… all of a “sudden”… Shame. Now, seriously do listen to Leonard Cohen’s hit “Everybody knows” and then tell me what you really really think. One thing is for sure, and let me express my humble view: Tax havens worldwide have been, and still are a good thing. Obviously in some cases greediness and envy creates, as always a bit of a mess. Obviously there have been some misconduct to the rules, and it goes without saying that indeed some people have and must seat on the dock. But let’s be honest: Everywhere there are tax havens, with Capital C or H, it doesn’t matter and they are all legitimate, otherwise, how come all these 70 (seventy) years transactions of any kind took, and take place? And to counter to a few who rushed to express their “view” comparing the Tax Havens with Flags of Convenience, oh well: they are talking really rubbish. Sorry guys and dolls, that’s the harsh truth… Nobody really could ever countered to those who in the first place organised, if you like, the Tax Havens! Tax Havens has seen the first CSR (Corporate Social Responsibility) work and charity too into unknown areas of Planet Ocean, that possibly your Political Geography teacher in High School (Lyceum) or University might even have ignored their existence and mentioned them to you! Where there are violations, I am for a total punishment – you dead know what I mean; but if not, let it be and be serious. End of the story.
The Belgian Authorities as well as Authorities around the world are meticulously hunting the criminal terrorists who disturb our lives worldwide. Excellent, get them while you can! And check thoroughly, like in the Armed Forces and Coast Guard Corps, every single passenger in the Ferry Terminals, Ports, Airports, Bus, Rail and Tube Stations, which also totally revamp them security-wise ( I am referring to the competent authorities as we say in shipping…). Check where they are going! Stop them. Expose them, Humiliate them. The innocent victims deserve justice, not just revenge. Dura lex, sed lex. “The law [is] harsh, but [it is] the law”. Again, one has to be harsh given those despicable criminals actions; these people are NOT humans! We have suffered a lot in the shipping fraternity, Seafarers, Shipowners, Port Authorities and family members from all these categories of despicable “people” from their Piracy and Terrorism actions, which of course in some instances where the result of other issues…!
The American Presidential Election turns to a Grand Guignol!
BREXIT and GREXIT and other –EXITs are on the cards; the Mighty Continent is in tatters. Mrs. Merkel had a chance… the bird has flown…
The Greek affair as we have numerous times over the last five years stated herein, will produce further tremors with incalculable repercussions for all, repeat: for all! Time for a pragmatic and not a populist change and all that jazz! See for your self what is happening; see what Europe let happen, or it happened with Europe’s blessings and behind the curtains? What a scam…
In the African Continent now: the Financial Credit Crunch, as a result of the upcoming economic and financial collapse, is more than evident; Kenya, Nigeria and the North Africa’s Med zone is in tatters, to name just a few of Africa’s regions. The proxy financial war in Africa has still long way to go… The people of Africa need another approach and not that of exploitation, even by new kids in the block from the Far East…
In the Far East and the Subcontinent things are also blur… China must get its act together; hegemony “can” wait… another century… India has to keep the steel industry alive, within and outside its frontiers.
Australia as we can see will surface as a winner attracting the investments and obviously migration…
Russia’s Putin will continue with his pre-planned, but flexible agenda; let’s see the current three hot spots: Ukraine (not Crimea any more), the new Turkish Yoke, Azeris and Armenians, Kurds and Syrians…
Let’s see how long it will take the international so called “coalition” to smash ISIS. Come on, appoint the leader and give him the mandate; the Armed Forces know best, as always – they have the last word!
In this World melee we reiterate the view that shipping investment must begin again and those with the availability of funds must go ahead and built new tonnage. Yesterday we told you what is beeing needed and see the BDI with an additional 1, 800 points!
Have a good evening!
