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Greece: 2017 Economic Outlook (March 1, 2017)

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Greece Macro Monitor (March 1, 2017)

Greece: 2017 Economic Outlook

Greece’s real GDP came in at -0.4% QoQ / +0.3% YoY in Q4-16 (quarterly national accounts, flash estimate), interrupting two consecutive quarters of positive QoQ growth (Q3: 0.9%; Q2: 0.3%). For the full-year, real output grew by 0.3%, broadly in line with our earlier forecast and compared with a -0.3% projection penciled in the 2017 budget. This translates into a positive carry-over effect into 2017, to the tune of 0.3ppts, same as a year earlier. Growth in 2016 was mainly driven by private consumption and investments. On the other hand, net exports are estimated to have had a negative contribution as imports rose faster than exports due to strengthened domestic demand. These trends can be partly attributed to favorable base effects, linked to the sharp decline in economic activity in the initial period following the summer 2015 turbulence. Nonetheless, the view of domestic economic stabilization throughout the greater part of last year is supported by a range of higher-frequency indicators, which point to gradually improving conditions in key sectors such as retail trade and manufacturing …

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Greece Macro Monitor_Greece-2017 Economic Outlook_1 March 2017

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