John Faraclas
The BDI ended the week at 1,086 points, nearly 150 points plus since last week, but make haste slowly given that many believe the days of bad markets and geopolitical uncertainty are over; John Faraclas’ weekly recap:
The BDI (Baltic Dry Index) gained 22 points since yesterday – now standing at 1,086 and 147 since last week’s 939 points bringing some euphoria but the old greek and latin maxim must be clearly understood and not misinterpreted:
Festina lente or σπεῦδε βραδέως (speûde bradéōs) is a classical adage and oxymoron … “make haste slowly” (sometimes rendered in English as “more haste, less speed”). This figure is nearly 1,200 points below the December 2013, so Festina lente!!!
The Capers, as usual volatile, saw the BCI 2014 gaining 111 points reaching 1,789 points and 662 since last week’s 1,127 points. CAUTION.
The Panamaxes had its BPI losing none points – now reading 1,211, but on a weekly basis gaining 93 points from 1,118… CAUTION here too.
The Supras’ BSI clinched just two points and now stand at 874 – not so much steam left; on a weekly basis 28 points plus is not “bad”…
The Handies, which approach slowly slowly the 500 point mark – now reading 495, gained four points and 33 since last week’s 462…
So all in all a better Dry Market but, Festina lente!!! Only when you see the magic 2,200 points, raise your glass…
The Wets were also on an upwards modus. The last published BDTI (Dirties) and BCTI (Cleans) gained three and four points standing now at 862 and 638 points respectively. On a weekly basis both wet indices gained 25 and 35 points from the 837 and 603 levels of Friday the 3rd of March…
The Boxtrade and containerships saw the ugly face of overall losses and the bad market still here; CMA CGM had a bad 2016 but at least its last quarter was a good one… let’s see what next as the Boxtrade is ships, boxes and terminals, needless to say that this trade can make waves in a good global economy; not in an economy under recession…
The price of WTI ended up …down at US$48,39 from the US$ 53 level of last week’s closing; very good fall and we are pleased to see the under the US$ 50 level …being achieved. Caution though as others have other designs which have to be observed, as some functions in world business and commodities cannot understand the importance of maintaining a low WTI…
On the shipfinance front, given the inability of banks and others to finance the industry’s needs and given that many banks will soon go-off the scene expect incalculable events… The world Economy and the Banking system is dying and it is dying hard… Expect to read messy results from banks, financial institutions, funds, the lot…
Shipping slowly slowly becomes shipping for the very very very few!
The Geopolitical mess continues:
The MIGRANTS retain still the first position and it get worse; more displace people, more crossing from Turkey to the Greek Islands AND mainland, more crossing from North Africa too and given the improvement of the weather conditions and the outcome in the entire Middle East, this summer we might see havoc! Add Turkey’s policy as a “result” of its behaviour towards the Europeans and see what to expect…
The Syrian and Iraqi saga with the ISIS et al continues and expect more mess to spill-over. What’s next after the fall of Mosul and Rakka?
Turkey on all matters in the region has its own stance and interpretation, Russia too. Add the forthcoming Turkish referendum on East Sunday and see what’s next. Turkey’s attitude must be curbs before the world goes up in smoke and it will backfire even on Turkeys supporting/backing nations. Double-faced politicians and Groups, according to historic analysis have lost power and missed their dreams…
Next door Greece is also in dire straits; internal and external factors continue as per our last reports. Obviously Turkey’s behaviour against Greece and the escalation of the war of words from both sides might lead to an uncontrollable situation. NATO will be in a total mess. GREXIT is ante portas, unless the entire debt is written off! That’s the ONLY solution and let those who were lending money, particularly over the last 42 years bear the burden; they deserve it! The so called Greek debt, a scam as we have numerous times mentioned against Greece, is unsustainable on all counts. We must remind our viewers that other counties are far worse than Greece, but Greece is pushed to the edge and become a scape goat… Wait and see..
The Balkans too, as we have explained in our recent report are about to go up in flames; FYROM, Kosovo and the entire region might drag in all of Balkans nations… Expect a messy spring, summer, fall and possibly winter…
BREXIT with or without hiccups continues and despite many trying to reverse same it continues. BREXIT as we have numerous times explained will shake the world to its foundations. A very interesting Budget might change a lot; let’s see if Mr. Hammond is the master of the crisis, given the tough times ahead and BREXIT…
FREXIT, NEXIT, ITEXIT and more …EXITs are in our radar screen.
The Mighty Continent is in a mess… Given also the worse ever state of the Banking systems and conversely Banks themselves the collapse will be spectacular. The re-election of Donald Tusk sparks uneasiness and it remains to be seen how solidarity works on similar and other issues in the very near future…
How the German forthcoming election will change things not only in Europe but beyond its frontiers..
The Ukrainian front is not so much in the news but a lot takes place in the background and things are also getting sour all over the Eastern Ukraine. Forget Crimea; its Russian and Putin et al will be difficult partners for peace there…
In the USA too many issues are still unsolved and Donald Trump will do it as per the song: MY WAY, end of the story. The Nude Photo Scandal is being now thoroughly investigated and I am sure Defence Secretary Mattis will go all the way. Very unpleasant for all, but something must be done once and for all. Other issue with president Trump’s direct involvement remains the issue of travel ban from six Muslim countries. The involvement of Russians in the presidential elections is still on as issue and let’s see same gone, as it might create unpleasant surprises for many.
In South America, Brazil’s economy continues to shrink and let’s see when the reverse will happen. Only when the Brazilian economy gets better the entire South American will be better. Nearby in Bolivia the coca might trigger international issues; tradition for cultivation is one thing, destruction of our society yet another! Where is Morales’ moral, eh!!!!
The Panama Maritime Conference and Exhibition between the 12 and 15th of March is THE international event given also the celebrations of the 100 years of Panama’s Flag Registry – will revert with a full account on this and pleased to see many of our supporters being there, many of which are also speakers!
China is faced with too many issues; political, geopolitical, financial and of course geostrategic ones… what real growth one can expect? Add the issue of the One China policy which might trigger unwanted situations in the region – already in a mess due to China’s claims in the region in South China Sea upsetting many of its neighbours…. Vietnam, The Philippines, Japan and others might get into the frying pan. A very dodgy region and if you add the North Korea’s behaviour with all these missile tests… you might see a war becoming the only solution.
Wonder what’s gone to happen to former South Korean president? Can Mrs. Park reverse the tide, or she accepts defeat?
Japan next door might see Abe rule until 2021! But can he win the next election…
That’s more or less the main stories and events and we warn all on the bubble about to burst: the Stock Markets are enjoying a great time figure-wise…. But what’s the reality?
Earlier on our team had the rare chance to attend at the Royal Academy of Music at London’s Marylebone the Academy Baroque Orchestra performing on one of its best on Hayden symphonies; Symphony no. 30 in C, Hob.I:30 Alleluia – Allegro, Andnate, Finale Tempo di menuet, piu tosto allegretto. Vilon Concerto in C, Hob.Vlla:1 Allegro, Adagio Finale presto with Henry Tong violin. Finally Symphony n.22 in E flat, Hob.I:22 “The Philosopher” Adagio, presto, Menuetto – Trio Finale: presto Many Congratulations to Margaret Faultless, Henry Tong and all the performers for this unique night!
Be on guard for every eventuality particularly from terrorists of any kind including business hooligans and market manipulators…
Have a nice weekend…
