John Faraclas
What a week that was with the BDI falling, Panama Maritime successful conference and perplexed Geopolitics…
The BDI was down five points at 690 earlier on today; it lost though 40 (forty) points since last week’s 730 “thanks” to the collapse of the Capes! The 14th Panama Maritime Conference dominated the week as did the perplexed geopolitics. John Faraclas’ daily and weekly recaps:
The Capes’ falling volatility – minus 44 (18/3), -55 (19/3), – 22 (20/3), – 111 (21/3) and minus 37 today brought the BCI down to 251 points which is 269 points down from last Friday’s the 15th of March when the BCI stood at 520 points; what a fall! CAUTION!
The Panamaxes saved the BDI from even a worse situation; the BPI was up 18 points and now stands comfortably above the 1,000 points at 1,027. On a weekly basis the BPI was up 194 points – from 833; excellent!
The Supras’ BSI was up 13 points at 826 and on a weekly basis 40 – from 786 thus surpassing the 800 point threshold!
The Handies’ BHSI was up six points at 455; on a weekly basis there was a double digit rise of 28 points – from 437!
So all in all a “better” dry market with the exception of the Capes giving that stigma of volatility in the market. As we have numerous times advised and written, one size doesn’t makes nor dictates a market… but…
The Wets with mixed feelings; the last published BDTI (Dirties) and BCTI (Cleans) stood at 700 – minus five and 650 – plus 16 points respectively. On a weekly basis the Dirties lost 37 points – from 737 and the Cleans gained 47 – from 603 points (15/3) respectively.
Containerships still struggling…
LNG tonnage is coming up as does the LNG bunkering; let’s see what happens next. Keep an eye though to the alternative sources of energy…
The WTI stood at US$ 58.90 – up .47 cents from last week’s US$ 58.52. Still very high causing unnecessary distress for billions of people all over Planet Ocean… Actually 7.5 out of 7.7 billion people suffer! CAUTION!
The Markets in the USA and UK fell amid fears of global slowdown. The FTSE 100 lost 2 centum, the Dow Jones was down 1,8 centum, the S&P500 minus 1,9 and NASDAQ minus 2,5 . Amsterdam, Paris, Frankfurt were down from 1,18 to 2,03%! The Nikkei was up 0,09… Not a good day… CAUTION!
The Geopolitical situation continues to enhance uncertainty in all fronts and the most important issue is how to tackle the US$ 250 trillion world debt that no one talks about yet the politicians and their cronies strangulate billions of people! This is the most urgent need and awareness of what might happen is of paramount importance! All troubles of our era right now stem from this unprecedented debt that the politicians and their populism of any kind created. I can assure you that the next financial crisis will make the one of 2008 look like a kindergarten …we have in my humble view entered a new catastrophic recession…
Add the Trade Wars, sanctions, climate change and the silly regulations on the environment were shipping is being wrongly attacked and bullied and see what you get!
On top of all this you have the Wars, wars of any kind taking place; geopolitical, regional, tax wars – yes you are reading well: tax wars… Thousands, millions of people become displaced leading to the pandemic of MIGRANTS, the number one issue which we have and continue to demonstrate and “promote” so the world is aware of this atrocity – because it has become an atrocity!
We continue to be prisoners of geography, religion and climate! Try to analyse these three issues and see where they will lead you. See for example Turkey’s fight for influence on all Stans in competition with Russia… its foe for centuries… Turkey even goes beyond that and soon will create, for a start, a mess in Europe and NATO…
There are billions of tons of plastic out there – in the Oceans and on land and we have to pay to buy a plastic bag from the shops whilst they could banned same altogether over night! I remember when I was young the paper-made ones at the American PX shops… It was the forest issue… And now: the Plastic, the plastic straws… etc etc…
We are hopeful with the news coming in that tonight is the end of ISIS and its Islamic State at their last “stronghold” in Syria close to the border with Iraq at Abu Kamal, but we are concerned about its fighters, men and women who will continue the terrorist atrocities in both countries and beyond. AND you have the issue of the young ISIS supporters and fighter young mothers too wishing to return to the Western European countries – mainly… Remain vigilant!!!!!!
See what happened down in Christchurch, New Zealand; who acted, his background, president Erdogan’s defensive staunch and counter the consequences and what else we will witness. And what about the young Turk in Utrecht? Now you see why we always end our daily reports urging you all to be alerted “…from Pirates, Terrorists, Criminals and Business Hooligans whatsoever wherever you are on Planet Ocean”…
Be vigilant also about any potential conflict following the latest incidents between India and Pakistan… Same applies for a possible confrontation at sea between China and India in case none can cross over the Himalayas – the Chinese are also involved with the Kashmir melee…
Did I hear you say anything on the China versus Germany in the export race to conquer the markets – another confrontation…
The USA imposes at its ease sanctions, sanctions and protectionism defences of all kinds… to all affecting the US interests and that of their Allies despite the fact that on numerous occasion US’s allies have different agendas…
Japan is watching all major ones and its ready to retaliate… particularly if the Chinese opt for an adventure with Taiwan… or in the South China Sea…
Will sharing food lead to better and successful negos between President Trump’s USA and Kim Jong Un’s North Korea? The 27th of February in Hanoi might hold the key for a peace amongst these two nations before the region gets derailed! We shall see; hold a small basket unless stealth diplomacy coupled with determined military and science leaders make the trick…
Did I hear you say BREXIT, eh!!! What a week that was and what is yet to come… Hold your breath and see how many people will gather at tomorrow’s marsh in central London! You need two in a tango but here definitely is Brussels to blame. We repeat our position: Indeed there are rules/presumptions to enter a union, any union, say the European Union in this instance BUT there should be the same for leaving or when you wish to expel a nation!!! All the rest is hypocritical childish and amateurs’ behaviour putting in danger billions of people – a foul on BREXIT will cost dearly all on Planet Ocean! Let’s hope all will go smooth, as if not, expect chaos at the borders; a risk few have imagined and prepared all of us to the slightest detail. This affects also the entire intermodal chain of the Shipping Industry !
Europe is in a mess and the Eurozone might create financial issues which might cause tsunamis with incalculable repercussions!
Italy, France: countries to watch – Germany too… In France the gilets jaunes (yellow vests) might cause mess tomorrow; wonder: Can Mr. Macron stop this movement or the movement will cut short his presidency… Just wonder…
The Balkans must be closely monitored…
Double election fever in Greece – imagine if at the last moment we have simultaneously with the Mayoral/Municipal and European Union elections a snap election…. Will young Tsipras and his patrons win or Mitsotakis Jr continues his family’s tradition; time will tell and well presentations from both to the electorate will add to this… The Greek people might have other designs too… You never ever know… To put the record straight we demanded long ago in this medium and other social media an ARISTOS team to govern Greece for ten years, streamline the country and then call for a general election under a new electoral law, same more or less as the one over here in the United Kingdom! We hope the 198th Anniversary of Greece’s Independence Day this coming Monday the 25th of March is an awakening of all Greeks to seek the position and conditions they deserve to live in!
The East Med must become a sea and region of Peace and Wealth following the oil and gas findings but greedy nations must conform with the international legal status… Cyprus must become a free nation as the continued occupation by Turkey ridicules the European Union and the UN chart!
We all await the aftermath in Syria and Iraq; not just rebuilding both nations – there are rumours of a Kurdistan to include Iranian, Iraqi, Syrian and Turkish lands and a corridor/exit to the sea…
The Golan Heights might cause an upheaval in the Middle East… CAUTION!
After 22 months we might have by tomorrow the Robert Mueller report. Muller was appointed to lead a special in depth investigation into possible Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election and whether the Trump campaign was involved. The report has been sent to the department of Justice; Mueller’s probe is conducted under the auspices of the Justice Department and is governed by its regulations! It’s a very different report from that of Kenneth Starr in the case of former president Bill Clinton and Monica Lewinsky…
Putin’s Russia continues its own agenda… The Black Sea and the Baltic countries as well as other regions are being targeted via a variety of methods. An immediate priority – and one can see the last 15 years’ Russian’s actions and preparedness is the Arctic!
We like it or not the USA and its allies are in a new Cold War with the other side..!
In South America the Venezuelan saga must be solved one way or another and we insist that Brazil must intervene. If the Venezuelan saga is NOT solved it will create despicable issues for the Venezuelan people and all Central and South America… will feel the damage…
In Africa now; US$ 100 mio were stolen during the Democratic Republic of Congo’s elections; three officials are involved – expect sanctions from the USA!
With the above and other issues the shipping industry is in dire straits… CAUTION…
On another note and tone this week was dominated by the 14th Panama Maritime Conference and Exhibition held at the Megapolis Centre in Panama City 17 to 20 March; a more than a well attended event. Congratulations to Captain Orlando Allard, president of the Panama Maritime XIV Committee and his team for this more than interesting event with a multi-subject / themes conference programme, exhibition, social events as well as tours which greatly complemented the event at a time when the shipping industry and the world at large is on the move of major changes and his country under election fever. We look forward to the next PMC biennial event and we are open to assist Panama to achieve new targets which will generate income for its inhabitants through the Shipping Adventure. The Panama Canal, its recent expansion and success is one thing, Maritime Tourism in its entirety yet another!
Have a nice evening and weekend; remain on guard from actions emanating from Pirates, Terrorists, Criminals and Business Hooligans whatsoever wherever you are on Planet Ocean.
