Daily Overview of Global Markets & the SEE Region (Monday, 3 June, 2019)
WORLD ECONOMIC & MARKET DEVELOPMENTS
GLOBAL MARKETS: Risk-off mode prevailed in early European trade on Monday as the US/China trade dispute continues to intensify, leaving no hopes for a resolution any time soon. Favored by their safe-haven appeal, the JPY and the CHF outperformed their major currency peers in FX markets. Elsewhere, US Treasuries extended recent gains with the 10-yr yield marking an intra-day low of 2.08% earlier today, the lowest since September 2017. Meanwhile, the 10-yr Bund yield recorded a fresh record low of -0.215% as US President Donald Trump’s tariffs actions have fueled concerns that he may also increase tariffs on the European auto sector later this year. In addition, Brexit uncertainty prevails while there are mounting worries over a new confrontation between Italy and the European Commission with the latter expected to issue an updated assessment of the country’s public finances on Wednesday, 5 June.
GREECE: The Euroworking group that convenes today is expected to discuss the macroeconomic and fiscal trajectory of Greece while the 3rd EPPS review will be released on June 5th, as planned. The review will likely incorporate an assessment of the fiscal impact of the recently adopted expansionary measures. According to the Hellenic Statistical Authority (ELSTAT), in March 2019 the overall volume index in retail trade s.a. rose by 4.0%YoY after two months of average annual contraction of 2.5%. According to INSETE Intelligence, in April 2019 international arrivals to Greece’s main airports rose to 1.2 million, up by 18.7%YoY while for the period January to April 2019, they reached 2.5 million up by 13.0%YoY.
SOUTH EASTERN EUROPE
SERBIA: A plethora of data were released on Friday for Serbia. Inter alia, the Serbian Statistical Office slightly revised 1Q19 GDP estimate upward from 2.3% YoY to 2.5% YoY but still below 3.4% YoY in Q4-2018. This week’s calendar is broadly filled with the Romanian GDP Q1-2019 final print on Thursday and Central Bank meetings in Poland and Serbia on Wednesday and Thursday respectively, where no surprises are anticipated.
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