John Faraclas
Capes’ volatility “floors” down the Markets amid messy Geopolitics and surging Coronavirus
What a week that was eh! The Dry Market fell sharply, thanks to the Capes’ volatility – nothing new ofcource and bringing up the issue of stability, that of the stable more or less Panamaxes. The BDI (Baltic Dry Index) ended down 78 points and now reads 1,892, losing both the 2,000 and 1,900 points threshold. On a weekly basis the BDI lost 128 points from 2,020 recorded on the 2nd of October 2020. Geopolitics – and we insist on this, will cause despicable damage to all on Planet Ocean. Coupled with the worse ever Recession and enhanced by the continuous surge of Coronavirus things will get definitely sour. John Faraclas’ weekly recap:
The BDI’s rise wasn’t that “credible” in comparison with last week when we saw a “confident” rise and eventually the fall came thanks to the Capes’ falling modus of triple digits – except from Monday and Tuesday 5 and 6 October. On 5/10 the BDI stood at 2,071 – plus 51, on 6/10 at 2,097 – plus 26, on 7/10 fell at 2,044 – minus 53 points, and yesterday 8/10 at 1,970 – minus 74 points losing also the 2,000 points threshold…
The Capes’ BCI was down to 3,555 points – minus 244 points! On a weekly basis same was down 432 points – from 3,987 las week (2/10). During the week we witnessed: On 5/10 4,135 – plus 148 points, on 6/10 4,208 points – plus 73, but on 7/10 we witnessed a substantial triple digit fall of 173 points ending down in 4,035 points… Yesterday Thursday the 8th of October the loss widen to minus 236 points and loss of the 4,000 points threshold standing at 3,799 points!!! Is this a tempo seasonal fall? Are the Chinese orders ending? Are we going to see more Chinese stocking? CAUTION…
The Panamaxes’ BPI maintained its upwards modest stability and now reads 1,439 points – up 11 points. The weekly score stood at 66 points plus from 1,373 on 2/10! On 5/10 1,383 up ten, on 6/10 1,394 up 11, on 7/10 1,410 up 16 and surpassing the 1,400 points threshold!!! Well done in an otherwise Capes dominated market.
Not so good results for the Supras’ BSI now at 982 – minus two. The weekly one was minus nine points from 991 on 2/10. All through the week we’ve seen the BSI fall three points on 5/10 to 988, then minus three again on 6/10, no change on the 7th of October, minus one yesterday at 984… CAUTION…
Finally neither the Handies had steam and remained in low levels; today the BHSI clinched one point and now reads 595 points. On a weekly basis the BHSI was up two points – from 593 on 2/10… The weekly “performance was 592 on 5/10 – minus one. 594 plus two on 6/10, minus one on 7/10 standing at 593… Up one yesterday 8/10 when it stood at 594…
So, all in all a downwards Dry market at the beginning of Fall… We suggest CAUTION.
Mixed feelings with the Container trade; the Coronavirus anathema unfortunately managed to harm the Box Trade and one way recovery MUST come… Add also the Global Recession as many try to ignore it…
Falling Wets; the last published BDTI (Dirties) and BCTI (Cleans) stood at 412 minus five and 361 minus seven points respectively… The weekly losses were minus 17 for the Dirties down from 429 and minus 11 from 372 on 2/10 respectively. All through the week the Dirties were falling as did the Cleans with an exemption on Monday the5/10 when the Cleans gained four points. Ultra CAUTION should be observed… as we are heading to uncharted waters…
The WTI was down to US$41.12 which is down 22 cents since yesterday. Unfortunately on a weekly basis the WTI was up US$ 4.08 causing mess to the 7.7 billion people… here was a minimal daily rise all through the week… Watch this space.
In the Geopolitical Arena, the MIGRANTS retain the number one position. Now, read carefully this: As soon as authorities find that NGO’s are in default, NGO’s immediately go on the offensive accusing authorities for bad treatment against the MIGRANTS coming to the EU via Greece from the pariah state of Turkey… What a laugh; what a palaver… NGO’s should be ashamed as well as their backers and sometimes innocent supporters and donors of what really happens. NGO’s support traffickers, end of the story… Not to mention in what else they are involved… Did I hear you say MIGRANTS trying to cross over from France to the UK…??? Oh! well… Expect mess as there is too much red tape… Watch this space…
Geopolitical behaviour from the superpowers have already “prepared” some of Planet Oceans regions for an all-out War. Did I hear you say Water Wars?
BREXIT becomes more than itching… Let’s see how Brussels deals with this issue and what London’s paradox has to say… A very difficult situ.
At the other side of the Atlantic president Trump tries hard for his re-election but Biden is pushing hard. A difficult endgame… CAUTION as humanity is at risk despite who wins…
China is also pushing hard but the USA and its allies, not only the Military ones, but the Trade ones will smash China’s trade and other advances…
Lastly it is about time we see the UN reprimand Turkey and its crimes all around its borders; unless the UN is another Pontius Pilatus allowing the super powers to sell weapons for the coming conflicts in the region between Gib to Afghanistan and from the Caucuses to the Horn of Africa. Shame for all these leaders allowing yet another massacre in Caucuses with the Armenian people once again… All of Turkey’s neighbors are suffering and are on foot of War: Armenia, Cyprus, Greece to name but a few…
Coronavirus will punish us all; just wait and see. Greediness has to be punished. Brace for lock-downs…
Have a nice evening as well as weekend ensuring you continue to remain on guard from actions emanating from Pirates, Terrorists, Criminals and any Business Hooligans whatsoever wherever you are on Planet Ocean. Once again a big THANK YOU to all who really care for all humans – Doctors, Nurses, Seafarers, Dockers, Port Authorities et al during this Coronavirus disaster!! We repeat: Do please invest in Hospitals including Equipment, Doctors, Nurses and any useful means to avoid further disasters! Become more disciplined and care for the Environment too. Lastly: Education and Training for all to be able to tackle these disasters. Let’s work collectively together and NOT opt for a fistful of Dollars to restart the already collapsed global economy… which is in red US$ 270 (twohundredandseventy) trillion…-
